Hobbs Kessler runs 1:46.87 800m

I am not invested in the Stonier comparison, but a three second PR is nothing to sneeze at and he definitely was laughing and offering a handshake out to Avila at the finish line of the mile. We'll see how the rest of the season pans out, but he is already looking a lot better than a year ago.

I don't quite understand who was "sneezing at" his 800m time. In fact, it's been widely praised (including by me). But the next logical step isn't to say he is actually in 1:45 shape or 3:32 shape. He's definitely in really good form, and it'd be great to see him in a fast 1500. Let's just pump the brakes on 1:46.8 and 2:16.4 as far as cherrypicking 1500m marks he could run.

Like King999 here who's got inside intel, targeting a new PB or going under 3:34 for the first time would be the more realistic goal and great to see.

How about a "foron"? Or a moronference?

So you admit he is poised for a PR of 3:33 this season, which we would both agree on.

That’s bullcrap. I and others have already provided plenty examples of 1500m times that milers (not half-milers) have historically run when they possess the aerobic power to run a 2:16.xx.

Shoot, though possibly too optimistic, one could use the Jack Daniels Calculator to come up with a better 1500m prediction (based on the aerobic power of a 2:16.xx 1000m) than your ‘worth’ number.

Two other runners ran 2:16 in the same race, but managed to narrowly beat Kessler: Luke McCann and Joshua Thompson.

Both ran 3:35 this season. That's where Kessler could be as well.

Listen, I am of the belief, that they all count but...and I am neing or try to be objective, but are you really counting in your 5 -800-1000M efforts, the Len Paddock Invite on 5/7? Okay, I guess, I would barely count that as in season and an Injury for a Month prior and/ or ding DNF at Jesse Owens ? I see the 1:49.4 the 2:16.x and the 1:46.87, Really 3 since the real season started , Not really, the 5 you refer to, but it does not matter.really. It wasn't even supposed to be a "workout" really, he was supposed to be in with Avila, I think to help a little, felt good enough to keep going, and then finished. I happen to think, running tat on 55 minutes rest after the 1:46.87 PR, is THE good indication that he is at least for now really fit and pretty sharp, will this hold on...or even get better in 10 more days? We shall see. He is clearly much better right now than the earlier 3:36's , some mention, some don't, I think many still don't get he is only 19 and 5 months, its's a lot of decent running for a U.S. guy at this age any time, any year.

Or he could be a bit better than a 22yr old Josh Kerr, who ran ‘only’ a 2:17.6, then two weeks later ran a 3:34.53, then three weeks later ran a 1:46.69.

Yes, his last two races have indicated he could possibly run 3:33.xx if he hits a race perfectly like at Portland Track Festival last year. But he could also run 3:34-3:36 if conditions or how the race is run aren't optimal.

I was mostly listing the 5 as in context for the comp to Stonier. Kessler running an 800 was not a newfound shock to his system or just him dabbling in a breakthrough season. You could posit that with Stonier who ran his first pro 800 and really had little experience with the event or being in sub 3:39/sub 1:47 shape before the year etc. I wasn't saying Kessler is tapped out at 800 in the sense that like if David Rudisha ran 5 fast 800s in a prime year (2010-12), and his 3rd or 4th was fastest and hit exactly right, you'd be like oh well we'll see next season but that might be the best we see. I acknowledge he's got plenty of room to grow especially at his age and with more experience. But I agree it doesn't really matter 3 or 5, the big distinction is effort 1 or 2.

Good intel on the mile. Again, it shows me as as outsider he is feeling extra-fit and confident. When you go from DNF'ing that 800 at Jesse Owens in frustration to doing more than you planned (or were prescribes) and almost winning the dang thing because you feel good..it's a fantastic sign. Yes, to me his last 2 meets are the best-case scenario for this season after the tough start, and I'm happy he and his support team/Warhurst didn't let it be a lost/transitional season. I agree it looks like he's gaining steam or at least going to be able to maintain this. It is encouraging and even if he got some crap setup race and only ran 3:36 because of conditions or poor field, I'd say I feel confident he'd pass the eyes test with a really fast finish or competitive run. That's kinda how I was seeing Sam Tanner's season, and that was before he dropped the really fast PB drop.

I totally disagree, check out 3.31 man Sam Tanner's PB and then give your head a wobble.

Kipyegoen can run 3.50 but she aint a 1.55 runner.

Different strokes for different folks

Tanner caught lightning in a bottle, or other, this summer.

It’s not “bullcrap,” it’s based on the sport’s governing body’s statistical analysis. And if you look at the broader context of my post, you’d see I’m not claiming that Kessler’s only capable of 3:36.75, since he’s a miler, but guessing he’s probably fit for ~3:34.0 right now.

Cherry-picking a few fast 1500 guys with 2:16 1k PBs as proof that Kessler can run 3:32 or better now is “bullcrap”. As another poster already noted, you don’t have to look any further than the two guys directly ahead of Kessler in the Monaco 1000 to find 1500m men who can run 2:16 1Ks but not sub-3:33.

Josh Thompson

1:49.15 (Could obviously run faster, probably 1:46/47)

2:16.38

3:34.77i (3:35.55 this year)

Luke McCann

1:46.25

2:16.40

3:35.65

Also, how many of these 2:16 1k performers ran those marks in a similar scenario to Kessler in Monaco? Height of the season, evidently fastest mid-D track in the world on a day that yielded a 3:50.37 women’s 1500, in a race that was all about running fast from the gun, won in 2:13.9. In fact, of the 99 men who have run equal or better 1000m times, only two have placed as low as Kessler’s 8th in Monaco: Giuseppe D’Urso and Rui Silva ran faster for 8th/9th in Nice, 1999, in a race won by Ngeny in 2:12.66.

“Monster PB…stoked!”

”From the first 100m, I’m like, getting swamped, but I’m just going to stay relaxed.”

“Copy his (Willis) moves, and get better…What’s a ‘Tanner Move’?”

”But yeah, the rail’s been good.”

”That was just incredibly hard, but…that was one of those races where the 1500 actually feels easy, because you run it smooth, your body’s in this flow state, and ‘lap-lap-lap-done’, but yeah, it was amazing.”

Nobody here was saying “proof” of anything, so quit trying to twist it.

He did so far, But , Like I say, they do ALL count. He is also 22, and Hobbs is 19 and I would say this surprised most folks? Not that he is not talented..he clearly is, He had run 3:55.x mile Indoors over a year ago, and 3:35 and 3:34.x this year.

Is it correct that Sullivan ran that 1500m time just two days after he ran that 1000m time?? (per IAFF site)

Not bullcrap but IAAF concerts to points, not times. They aren't the same. A statistical analysis should include uncertainty if converting to times, e.g. P50=3:36, P25=3:34, P75=3:39.

Lol. Hey it's possible, but that's definitely a major "IF". you act like it's likely. Or almost certain.