Either way it was a great race and yes we do forget that in terms of lifetime bests Ajee is only half a second slower.
Don't look at someone's PR. Look at their 5 fastest times over the past 24 months. That will be a much better predictor of what they can run this year.
There are a number of runners whose 800 PR is significantly better than their second best time, which means that their PR is an anomaly. Yes, Ajee's PR is 1:55.61, but her second fastest time ever is only 1:56.45.
And there are a number of runners who ran a really fast time a few years ago, but they can no longer do that now. Ajee hasn't broken 1:57 since 2018. That's FOUR years ago.
Yes, Athing, Keely, and Ajee have all run 1:55 at some point in their careers. But when you look at Ajee's, Keely's, and Athing's top 5 times over the past 24 months, that tells a very different story. Out of those 3 women, Athing is clearly the best, Keely is clearly second, and Ajee isn't as close to them as some people would like to imagine she is.
The only reason Ajee was close to Athing yesterday was because Athing had Covid only a month ago. Now that Athing has resumed her normal training, the gap between Athing and Ajee will grow over the rest of this summer.
Okay sure but a few things. Stating that Mu and Wilson have PR's within 6/10ths of each other is more of a nod to the fact that Wilson isn't chopped liver, she is very good. And sure, she might never run faster than 1.55.6 again and Mu might even break 1.55 this year but they aren't worlds apart - I could see Mu running maybe 1.54 high maybe this year and I could see Ajee running 1.56. It's certainly not a huge gap when it comes to a championship final after 3 rounds. I'm not "over-advocating" for Wilson and I'm not imagining anything - but just like Sunday it only takes a bad day from Mu and a great day from Wilson and the results could be very unexpected. That's not even taking into account Hodgkinson who to me is absolutely the favorite for Eugene.
I would beg to differ that Mu's 400 speed must be the decisive factor in the women's 800. As we have seen in the men's event, it isn't always the faster athletes - such as the 44-45 runners - who win over the 800. The event still requires strength and endurance - and the latter is not Mu's strong point (as her mile shows). I think Hodgkinson is currently better than Wilson and in a finish like we have just seen could well have taken Mu.
????????
Keely doesn't race 1500/Mile and basically everything public about her training has indicated she's low mileage.
Does not ever running the mile indicate being a stronger runner than Ajee's 4:05/4:33? Or Raevyn's 4:12/4:29? How about Reekie's 4:02/4:27 and measly 55 400m PR?
Feel free to believe that strength > speed for the 800, but realize that you're not making the case for who you think you are.
The point I was making is that a 49s runner over 400 whose best mile is 4.37 has more speed than endurance. Whether Hodgkinson or Wilson have more endurance may be moot. I am inclined to give Hodgkinson a nod towards endurance as she is quite a bit slower than Mu over the 400, at 52s, and yet is a 1.55x runner over 800, and so in the same ballpark as Mu.
The point I was making is that a 49s runner over 400 whose best mile is 4.37 has more speed than endurance. Whether Hodgkinson or Wilson have more endurance may be moot. I am inclined to give Hodgkinson a nod towards endurance as she is quite a bit slower than Mu over the 400, at 52s, and yet is a 1.55x runner over 800, and so in the same ballpark as Mu.
I suspect Keely could run 4:05 at this moment. She’d challenge sub-4 with just a little more specific training. She’s the real deal but I disagree with anyone who would suggest she should consider moving up - she’s a natural at the 800.
Mu had Covid only 5 weeks ago and lost training time. She will keep getting faster from now on.
Hodgkinson has a shot, but not a very good one.
This.
We don't know the details, I lost track of these illnesses. Problem is that since May 12th her best race/points was June 9th and since then she's got SLOWER. Isn't that travel in the wrong direction?
We don't know the details, I lost track of these illnesses. Problem is that since May 12th her best race/points was June 9th and since then she's got SLOWER. Isn't that travel in the wrong direction?
NO. She was running in a championship format. It was not a one off. Plus if one lost a little training it would show up more when having to run rounds. Come on now.
And she ran a 1:57.55 semi. In contrast she went just 1:59.3 last year at trials and even 1:58.07 at the Olympics in the Semis. Better fitness and holding back a bit more in the Semis if possible should help her potentially in a few weeks
The point I was making is that a 49s runner over 400 whose best mile is 4.37 has more speed than endurance. Whether Hodgkinson or Wilson have more endurance may be moot. I am inclined to give Hodgkinson a nod towards endurance as she is quite a bit slower than Mu over the 400, at 52s, and yet is a 1.55x runner over 800, and so in the same ballpark as Mu.
I suspect Keely could run 4:05 at this moment. She’d challenge sub-4 with just a little more specific training. She’s the real deal but I disagree with anyone who would suggest she should consider moving up - she’s a natural at the 800.
The advantage for Keely of that kind of endurance would be in a close finish. The key would be to be on Mu's shoulder in the last 50 or so metres. It may also help her if Mu were to go out too fast over the first lap, which would diminish her finish. I think Mu performs best off a more even pace.
Mu had Covid only 5 weeks ago and lost training time. She will keep getting faster from now on.
Hodgkinson has a shot, but not a very good one.
This.
"This" makes me kind of laugh. So she might have had what ultimately amounted to a week - to 10 day break 5 weeks ago and that lost training did what exactly? You guys pushing this narrative are implying that this "lost" time might be the difference between 1.57.0 now and what - 1.55? Yeah this isn't how it works. If she was out for a month and still experiencing issues then okay - but she's clearly not, she ran 1.57.01 in Rome on the 9th for christs sake. These "covid" narratives are idiotic - Rai Benjamin had covid 10 days before trials and still ran 47.04 looking like he was jogging. Mu might have had one extra race under her belt without covid - Pre, and this race was won by Keely in 1.57.7 so odds are (especially given how early Pre is in the season) it would have been simply an extra 1.57 race under her belt by now.
Well, the clash between Keely and Mary on Thursday should give us a lot more info on where those two stand. Talking of Keely, although she isn't running that fast this summer, she is winning everything over 800m, unlike last year, and she does have the ability to run very well in important races. For example, going into last year's Olympics, many commentators were predicting a 1min 54sec for Athing but nobody would have predicted sub-1min 56sec for Keely. She is obviously an athlete for the big occasion who can clearly "raise her game". However, she will have to be on her best, best BEST game to beat Athing.
Well, the clash between Keely and Mary on Thursday should give us a lot more info on where those two stand. Talking of Keely, although she isn't running that fast this summer, she is winning everything over 800m, unlike last year, and she does have the ability to run very well in important races. For example, going into last year's Olympics, many commentators were predicting a 1min 54sec for Athing but nobody would have predicted sub-1min 56sec for Keely. She is obviously an athlete for the big occasion who can clearly "raise her game". However, she will have to be on her best, best BEST game to beat Athing.
The troubling thing in the Keely camp is that she expressed some disappointment at only running another 1.57.7 in her last race. At the start of the season she said she wanted to be knocking out 1.58/57/56 each time she raced. She's barely on that. And now she's got a resurgent AJW and an improving Moraa (I think that 50 sec 400m will bother her a bit). But as you say, she's dealt with everything thrown at her so far and I'm not sure how consistent Moraa is. I'm hoping low 1.57 at the very least, if she can run high 1.56 that would be much nicer of course.
"This" makes me kind of laugh. So she might have had what ultimately amounted to a week - to 10 day break 5 weeks ago and that lost training did what exactly? You guys pushing this narrative are implying that this "lost" time might be the difference between 1.57.0 now and what - 1.55? Yeah this isn't how it works. If she was out for a month and still experiencing issues then okay - but she's clearly not, she ran 1.57.01 in Rome on the 9th for christs sake. These "covid" narratives are idiotic - Rai Benjamin had covid 10 days before trials and still ran 47.04 looking like he was jogging. Mu might have had one extra race under her belt without covid - Pre, and this race was won by Keely in 1.57.7 so odds are (especially given how early Pre is in the season) it would have been simply an extra 1.57 race under her belt by now.
I think you know you can't just generalize every COVID case like it's the same. Certainly a 400H and 800m runner also might have it affect them differently and for different durations based on the aerobic demands of their respective events as well... And I'd hope Rai Benjamin would look easy running 47.04, he's a generally effortless-looking runner who ran more than .8 faster in Tokyo and last year at the Trials ran 46.83 running the first 200 at 85% effort (letting Rosser lead).
While COVID is likely not a HUGE factor, Mu is definitely rounding into form and could improve a little extra between now and Worlds with uninterrupted training instead of COVID + Travel to Rome and so on.
It's worth noting that maybe it was a factor that the Olympics in 2021 gave an unusual, extra day between the Semis and Finals (July 31 --> August 3). USAs both last year and this year as well as Worlds this year have just one day of rest in between. Mu looked tired to me this year after running 1:57.7 in her semis. Last year at USAs she barely dipped under 2 in the Semis. At the Olympics, she ran 1:58.07, but then had 2 full days off. Maybe 1:55 flat is ambitious in a championship that has the more typical schedule.
"This" makes me kind of laugh. So she might have had what ultimately amounted to a week - to 10 day break 5 weeks ago and that lost training did what exactly? You guys pushing this narrative are implying that this "lost" time might be the difference between 1.57.0 now and what - 1.55? Yeah this isn't how it works. If she was out for a month and still experiencing issues then okay - but she's clearly not, she ran 1.57.01 in Rome on the 9th for christs sake. These "covid" narratives are idiotic - Rai Benjamin had covid 10 days before trials and still ran 47.04 looking like he was jogging. Mu might have had one extra race under her belt without covid - Pre, and this race was won by Keely in 1.57.7 so odds are (especially given how early Pre is in the season) it would have been simply an extra 1.57 race under her belt by now.
I think you know you can't just generalize every COVID case like it's the same.
Exactly, thank you. So why is the baseline assumption that it must have seriously set-back (in this case) Mu to the point she's now "considerably behind where she would have been" and is playing catch up?
For most young and healthy people (like Athing Mu, like Rai Benjamin) covid now is no more severe than a common cold. If anything a few days rest at this point in the season might even help.
Covid is becoming the number one "narrative pedaling" lever. Mu has an average race at USATFs and nearly gets beat by a very good athlete in Wilson - must have been "the Covid". Lazy and devoid of logic and thought. Sorry.
I think you know you can't just generalize every COVID case like it's the same.
Exactly, thank you. So why is the baseline assumption that it must have seriously set-back (in this case) Mu to the point she's now "considerably behind where she would have been" and is playing catch up?
For most young and healthy people (like Athing Mu, like Rai Benjamin) covid now is no more severe than a common cold. If anything a few days rest at this point in the season might even help.
Covid is becoming the number one "narrative pedaling" lever. Mu has an average race at USATFs and nearly gets beat by a very good athlete in Wilson - must have been "the Covid". Lazy and devoid of logic and thought. Sorry.
I think this is fair if a bit harsh. The overall factors —too hard a run in the Semis with Wilson getting an easy run in comparison, more recent travel, an up-and-down season (not just COVID, injuries/setbacks too), and so on led to a closer race than anticipated. I'm more compelled to believe Mu is maybe .5 second ahead of Ajee in fitness. That's pretty narrow for what it could be. Having to run in a loaded semi vs. Ajee getting in a last-to-first training effort makes a difference in championship racing and led this one to be super-close. This is unlikely to be replicated in the Olympics, where both will face tough paths.
For most young and healthy people (like Athing Mu, like Rai Benjamin) covid now is no more severe than a common cold. If anything a few days rest at this point in the season might even help.
If taking a week off the month before USA's was helpful, then all athletes would already be doing that. But they aren't doing it because it's not helpful.
Heh. Rough effort for Keely tactically and even accounting for that she should've been closing in on Moraa if she was in 1:56 shape. On the form chart, you'd have to transparently put her 4th behind Mu, Ajee and Moraa.