The challenge with its all about the shoes is that we are not seeing progression at the Pro / Olympic level in the 1500 and 1 mile. On another post everyone is debating whether or not Jakob will break the ER in the mile that was set 37 years ago, one person has broken 3:47 in the last 15 years.
The problem with saying this is that times for both individuals and the entire field don't progress robotically upwards There is stochastic variation. Superspikes were first out in limited quantities two years ago (Dragonfly spikes first mentioned here in April 2020) and have only been widely available for an entire season since last year. Yet people making your argument are suggesting that the world records should be destroyed the very same or next year in the 1500 (some WRs actually have been destroyed in the 5,000, 10,000). It doesn't work that way. You need to look over more years, and since you can't do that yet because the superspikes are so new, you need to look deeper into the results. In the absence of a technological breakthroughs, previous world records were not steadily broken by tenths of a second every year. There were wide variations in seasons bests in the 1500, and the world records would not be set every year. The current WR is from 1998! Even before that, there were three times since Elliot where there was 7 years between WRs. Looking at the past 15 years, the season's best men's time in the 1500 varied from 3:26.69 to 3:31.49. That would easily hide the benefit from superspikes if you just looked at the #1 performance in a season. Looking at the 20th fastest time in each of the past 15 years to get a 20-times deeper comparison, you can see that although there isn't really a trend line from 2007 to 2020, 2021 has the fastest 20th fastest time by 1.18 seconds better than the average from 2007 to 2020, and is 0.48 seconds faster than the next fastest year (2013). 3:34.09 (2007) 3:33.63 3:33.63 3:33.67 3:33.42 3:33.82 3:33.15 (2013) 3:33.47 3:34.13 3:34.09 3:34.17 3:34.38 3:33.21 3:34.98 3:32.67 (2021) Similarly, people asking why Jakob isn't running 3:26 yet have to realize that runners also don't progress robotically year to year, whether that's variation in fitness or variation in how the races place out. For example, look at the progression of two Jakes, that I just picked from near the top of current world rankings. Pick anyone else and you'll see yearly results are not only up in the beginning of a career and down at the end. There are ups and downs. Heyward. I see a regression from age 19 to 20-21, and then a big jump in 2021: 3:57.57 (2015, age 16) 3:46.50 3:42.12 3:36.90 3:39.38 3:39.04 3:32.82 (2021, age 22) Wightman. Regressed from age 20 to 21, massive improvement age 26 in 2020 presumably running in some of the earliest superspikes: 3:51.74 (2012, age 17) 3:43.74 3:35.49 3:40.05 3:36.64 3:34.17 3:33.96 3:31.87 3:29.47 3:33.48 (2021, age 27)
This is a great post, and deserves a bump.
Whether or not it fits people’s argument, here is some data. I expect this year will see a similar, and even faster, top 20. This will depend on Monaco, as always, which actually has a mile and not 1500 this year if I am not mistaken.
You make a very good point. I don't disagree that the shoes make a difference but it is surprising to see so many records fall in the 5,000 and 10,000 and fast marathon times but not see them in shorter distances unless the shoes aren't as impactful their which makes sense b/c if they are going to make a percentage difference that is going to be compounded over longer distances.
The Vaporfly's have been out for 4 years and maybe the fact that the super spikes came out later is the reason we are seeing a lag in records falling or maybe the effects of doping had a bigger impact on the middle distances than long distance such that the 90s records are just harder to cleanly overcome.
However, I do think that the shoes are only part of the equation and the advantage isn't as big as what some folks think. Saying 3:55 is the new 4 or 2:02 is like a 2:10 marathon seems extremely hyperbolic.
An unmentioned factor is the use of pacers in prep meets, something that almost never happened twenty years ago. Yesterday Birnbaum stayed off the pacer but having a string of guys ahead of him the whole race was ideal to draw him to his potential. In the past he would have been 4:02 without a pacer.
Pacers, All-Star meets, invites to pro/college meets, better coaching, better training and better equipment. The spikes are part of this, maybe responsible for a second or so.
This is what I am thinking. The paid travel to invite meets, etc. with rabbits. Shoe companies investing more $$$ in HS invite meets (indoors as well as out).
The shoes help more for improving the sub elite level than the pros. Super Shoe makes up for defective running form. Look at depth of times in NCAA distance events now.
The coaching hasn't improved.
If the super shoe doesn't work, why does Olli Hoare race in the most expensive Nike shoe?
You make a very good point. I don't disagree that the shoes make a difference but it is surprising to see so many records fall in the 5,000 and 10,000 and fast marathon times but not see them in shorter distances unless the shoes aren't as impactful their which makes sense b/c if they are going to make a percentage difference that is going to be compounded over longer distances.
The Vaporfly's have been out for 4 years and maybe the fact that the super spikes came out later is the reason we are seeing a lag in records falling or maybe the effects of doping had a bigger impact on the middle distances than long distance such that the 90s records are just harder to cleanly overcome.
However, I do think that the shoes are only part of the equation and the advantage isn't as big as what some folks think. Saying 3:55 is the new 4 or 2:02 is like a 2:10 marathon seems extremely hyperbolic.
Is a super spike going to have the same result as a super shoe? Remember, the super spike is aided by the super track (indoor & out), which actually lessens the super spike benefit.
Show me a super road. Of course the super shoe is going to show better results than the spike. Super tracks have allowed the advances in super spikes to be less necessary or advanced.
I sense there are a lot salty 4:04 milers here that are salty thinking they would be sub milers with dragonflies. Nope.
I'm honest with myself. I'm 38 and I ran all my Prs in Victories or Victory Elites. They wouldn't have been any faster if I had Dragonflies.
Well, I guess they aid recovery better and therefore you can do more quality sessions, but I don't think they actually make you directly run faster.
Source: I actually have a pair.
My issue is that it is no longer a poor mans' sport even in high school anymore. What are the average family incomes of these peope breaking 4? I loved running partly because it didn't matter who your father or family was, it was the great equalizer leaving it out on the track, rich or poor. I'll like it better once these shoes are less expensive and more accessible to the common man. Yes there have been advantages due to money before, but not this large or this prominent.
Interesting data, and adds to the discussion, but far from conclusive. The two Jakes, for example: you're looking at a trend that has them moving from popping zits to being grown men, not to mention other confounding factors.
Now at least 4 sub 4 minute milers in HS. It is the shoes. Hello….
Sure, the shoes play a part. 2 things: doesnt that still mean there is a hell of a lot of talent in the h/s mile ranks, even if they were 4:01-03 guys (taking away shoe benefits)?? Secondly, it would be very interesting to know how much faster high schoolers started running when they transitioned from crap cinder tracks to tarmac tracks. Was that a hideous, awful thing back then, like everyone thinks new shoe technology is? Progress happens…for most of us.
Now at least 4 sub 4 minute milers in HS. It is the shoes. Hello….
Sure, the shoes play a part. 2 things: doesnt that still mean there is a hell of a lot of talent in the h/s mile ranks, even if they were 4:01-03 guys (taking away shoe benefits)?? Secondly, it would be very interesting to know how much faster high schoolers started running when they transitioned from crap cinder tracks to tarmac tracks. Was that a hideous, awful thing back then, like everyone thinks new shoe technology is? Progress happens…for most of us.
Pointing out the obvious benefit of the shoes is NOT tantamount to saying it is “a hideous, awful thing.” The ignorance and/or insecurity of those who discount the benefit is a wonder to behold. I agree with your main point that very talented kids are benefiting from the shoes, (and they would be very fast HS runners with old shoes) as are some not so talented kids we don’t hear about.
I sense there are a lot salty 4:04 milers here that are salty thinking they would be sub milers with dragonflies. Nope.
I'm honest with myself. I'm 38 and I ran all my Prs in Victories or Victory Elites. They wouldn't have been any faster if I had Dragonflies.
Well, I guess they aid recovery better and therefore you can do more quality sessions, but I don't think they actually make you directly run faster.
Source: I actually have a pair.
Really not sure why you’re so reluctant to admit that, yes, your mile would have been a second to 3 seconds faster if you had dragonflies. Even if you are a “non-responder”, you are wrong here, there is still a small effect.
The reasons that you don’t think they make you faster is that you are now older and slower.
They both DIRECTLY make you faster out of the box, and more importantly (INDIRECTLY) allow more quality sessions with better recovery. BOTH points matter, and I’m not sure why some posters so vehemently deny one or the other and act like the shoes do nothing, when they clearly do.
You seem like a direct example of the insecurity of folks about “well why didn’t I run faster?”
El G, Komen, Bekele et al ran pretty fast in the old shoes. No one's running faster. So I guess today's dramatic improvements amongst the youngsters may not be entirely "the shoes".
Interesting data, and adds to the discussion, but far from conclusive. The two Jakes, for example: you're looking at a trend that has them moving from popping zits to being grown men, not to mention other confounding factors.
I put it out there because some people were saying that if the superspikes work Jakob is the counter argument. I didn't actually pull up his seasonal bests until just now because I assumed they were correct. But looking at it now, I can argue that superspikes gave him the boost in times. Not conclusive, but it's certainly a decent explanation.
It could be argued that he's been at about the same, very high level since 2019, and then benefited about 1.5 seconds from superspikes, which helped him break into the 3:28s. The difference between being 1st and 4th in the world might just be racing/chance/luck (others like Tim not being on their highest form, etc.)/experience/and better consistency than the competition. Looks like he has plateaued at the top since 2019. If I'm right, he's a world beater, but not future world record beater in the 1500 or mile.
4:05.49 (2014, day after he turned 14)
3:48.37
3:42.44
3:39.92
3:31.18 (2018, already running Diamond League Monaco at 17, and placing 4th)
3:30.16 (2019, age 18, one second improvement in seasonal best, placed 4th at Worlds)
Interesting data, and adds to the discussion, but far from conclusive. The two Jakes, for example: you're looking at a trend that has them moving from popping zits to being grown men, not to mention other confounding factors.
It could be argued that he's been at about the same, very high level since 2019, and then benefited about 1.5 seconds from superspikes, which helped him break into the 3:28s. T
3:31.18 (2018, already running Diamond League Monaco at 17, and placing 4th)
3:30.16 (2019, age 18, one second improvement in seasonal best, placed 4th at Worlds)
3:28.68 (August 2020 - with superspikes)
3:28.32 (2021)
"then benefited about 1.5 seconds from superspikes" is not what your data shows.
You give him a 1.02 second improvement from 2018 to 2019, with no mention of superspikes, so I'll assume those are normal shoes. Then you give him 1.48 seconds from 2019 to 2020, this time mentioning superspikes.
So, even taking your numbers at face value, he didn't "benefit[] about 1.5 seconds"; he benefitted no more than 0.46 seconds (1.48 - 1.02). And to reach this conclusion, you need to assume that he did not improve his training AT ALL in that year, and that there was nothing different about the 2020 race relative to the 2019 race, and any number of other confounding factors.
Interesting data, and adds to the discussion, but far from conclusive. The two Jakes, for example: you're looking at a trend that has them moving from popping zits to being grown men, not to mention other confounding factors.
I put it out there because some people were saying that if the superspikes work Jakob is the counter argument. I didn't actually pull up his seasonal bests until just now because I assumed they were correct. But looking at it now, I can argue that superspikes gave him the boost in times. Not conclusive, but it's certainly a decent explanation.
It could be argued that he's been at about the same, very high level since 2019, and then benefited about 1.5 seconds from superspikes, which helped him break into the 3:28s. The difference between being 1st and 4th in the world might just be racing/chance/luck (others like Tim not being on their highest form, etc.)/experience/and better consistency than the competition. Looks like he has plateaued at the top since 2019. If I'm right, he's a world beater, but not future world record beater in the 1500 or mile.
4:05.49 (2014, day after he turned 14)
3:48.37
3:42.44
3:39.92
3:31.18 (2018, already running Diamond League Monaco at 17, and placing 4th)
3:30.16 (2019, age 18, one second improvement in seasonal best, placed 4th at Worlds)
3:28.68 (August 2020 - with superspikes)
3:28.32 (2021)
What plateau are you referring to? There's no plateau in there at all, as there is constant improvement year after year, with the big jumps in improvement in the early years, which is normal for most.
it isn’t the shoes. kids are training way harder these days
The shoes certainly don't hurt the times but I agree...kids are training harder. More miles at a younger age. Will be interesting to see how this current group of 9-12th graders progress in college and after. Will they see slower (or any) progression? Juniors/seniors are already pounding out 70+ mile weeks. Kids feel the pressure to put in the miles at a younger age in an effort to hit huge PRs and look more attractive to colleges.
There is a lot of data showing that times have improved since the shoes. It may not be the ONLY factor, but the shoes ARE a factor.
Cheptegei -2 WRs in the shoes.
Multiple ARs in the shoes on HS tracks, Men & Women.
NCAA indoor qualifying times were 8s faster in 3k and 15s faster in 5k this year. Last year outdoors M 5k & 10k depth.
People don't want to believe that technology can have such an impact, but how many of us would attempt a PR on a dirt track in 70s spikes? Mondo tracks obsoleted the tracks before. The new shoes are making the old obsolete. It is not wrong or bad, but the 4min mile is not what it was a few years ago.
There is a lot of data showing that times have improved since the shoes. It may not be the ONLY factor, but the shoes ARE a factor.
Cheptegei -2 WRs in the shoes.
Multiple ARs in the shoes on HS tracks, Men & Women.
NCAA indoor qualifying times were 8s faster in 3k and 15s faster in 5k this year. Last year outdoors M 5k & 10k depth.
People don't want to believe that technology can have such an impact, but how many of us would attempt a PR on a dirt track in 70s spikes? Mondo tracks obsoleted the tracks before. The new shoes are making the old obsolete. It is not wrong or bad, but the 4min mile is not what it was a few years ago.
Number of US HS runners that broke 4 min in the mile in the 15 years following the introduction of synthetic tracks in the late 60s.
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