I think the winner will be Stanford for sure: Charlie Hicks, Cole Sprout and Ky Robinson have been consistently all-American in every championship and as long as a couple of their other top recruits gets healthy, they'll be able to easily get a 4 or 5
2nd will be NAU: I heard from a guy who knows the NAU guys that Nur will probably be leaving and Drew Bosley might also take off too. Nico Young regularly finishes behind Charles Hicks and Cole Sprout anyway and even if Bosley stays, it's basically Sprout-Hicks-Robinson vs Hicks-Sahlman-Bosley and true freshman rarely make the top 15-20, whereas it's very common for sophomores to move up significantly in the ranking as juniors. Beyond, that NAU's got George Kuecshe for one more year so that's a good 4, but I don't see a 5 there. Tristian Merchant did an 8:51 in high school but he didn't do much of anything freshman year.
3rd Oklahoma State. Isai Rodriguez has a year of eligibility left, I believe Alex Maier does too, and Ryan Schoppe and Rory Leonard are going to get really good this year. I can't remember who else is on that team.
4th I would have said Notre Dame but because I heard that Kilrea and Danny, but I think I'll have to go with Washington.
Brian Fay and Keiran Lumb are returning and they're determined to have their first good finish in a while, plus the 3 guys who got All-American in the mile and I think Talon Hull or Leo Dalebschbacsh is still there.
5th is Colorado even if they have no low stick. Last year's fresh faces are all going to be a bit more battle tested.
6th Arkansas loses Gilbert Boit and Aemon Kemboi AFAIK, so not a lot
I'm not sure why people are picking BYU had a shamefully big drop-off after their top 3 and one of those top 3--Mantz--is long gone anyway. Is it because Kenneth Rooks did so well in the steeple?
Young is better than Sprout and has a decent shot to win Nats this fall. I do agree though that Stanford probably takes the head to head matchup especially if Nur is out of the picture.
I think the winner will be Stanford for sure: Charlie Hicks, Cole Sprout and Ky Robinson have been consistently all-American in every championship and as long as a couple of their other top recruits gets healthy, they'll be able to easily get a 4 or 5
2nd will be NAU: I heard from a guy who knows the NAU guys that Nur will probably be leaving and Drew Bosley might also take off too. Nico Young regularly finishes behind Charles Hicks and Cole Sprout anyway and even if Bosley stays, it's basically Sprout-Hicks-Robinson vs Hicks-Sahlman-Bosley and true freshman rarely make the top 15-20, whereas it's very common for sophomores to move up significantly in the ranking as juniors. Beyond, that NAU's got George Kuecshe for one more year so that's a good 4, but I don't see a 5 there. Tristian Merchant did an 8:51 in high school but he didn't do much of anything freshman year.
3rd Oklahoma State. Isai Rodriguez has a year of eligibility left, I believe Alex Maier does too, and Ryan Schoppe and Rory Leonard are going to get really good this year. I can't remember who else is on that team.
4th I would have said Notre Dame but because I heard that Kilrea and Danny, but I think I'll have to go with Washington.
Brian Fay and Keiran Lumb are returning and they're determined to have their first good finish in a while, plus the 3 guys who got All-American in the mile and I think Talon Hull or Leo Dalebschbacsh is still there.
5th is Colorado even if they have no low stick. Last year's fresh faces are all going to be a bit more battle tested.
6th Arkansas loses Gilbert Boit and Aemon Kemboi AFAIK, so not a lot
I'm not sure why people are picking BYU had a shamefully big drop-off after their top 3 and one of those top 3--Mantz--is long gone anyway. Is it because Kenneth Rooks did so well in the steeple?
Yes, BYU lost Mantz, but they also are getting transfer Cristian Allen from Weber State who was 16th at XC nationals last year. Casey Clinger was 8th in XC. Brandon Garnica was all American in the 10k. Kenneth Rooks did very well in the steeple as you mentioned. Aidan Troutner is very good when he runs well. So basically they have the potential to be a podium team but they tend to fall apart at nationals. Lets hope they peak at the right time so we can have an exciting race in November!
I think the winner will be Stanford for sure: Charlie Hicks, Cole Sprout and Ky Robinson have been consistently all-American in every championship and as long as a couple of their other top recruits gets healthy, they'll be able to easily get a 4 or 5
2nd will be NAU: I heard from a guy who knows the NAU guys that Nur will probably be leaving and Drew Bosley might also take off too. Nico Young regularly finishes behind Charles Hicks and Cole Sprout anyway and even if Bosley stays, it's basically Sprout-Hicks-Robinson vs Hicks-Sahlman-Bosley and true freshman rarely make the top 15-20, whereas it's very common for sophomores to move up significantly in the ranking as juniors. Beyond, that NAU's got George Kuecshe for one more year so that's a good 4, but I don't see a 5 there. Tristian Merchant did an 8:51 in high school but he didn't do much of anything freshman year.
3rd Oklahoma State. Isai Rodriguez has a year of eligibility left, I believe Alex Maier does too, and Ryan Schoppe and Rory Leonard are going to get really good this year. I can't remember who else is on that team.
4th I would have said Notre Dame but because I heard that Kilrea and Danny, but I think I'll have to go with Washington.
Brian Fay and Keiran Lumb are returning and they're determined to have their first good finish in a while, plus the 3 guys who got All-American in the mile and I think Talon Hull or Leo Dalebschbacsh is still there.
5th is Colorado even if they have no low stick. Last year's fresh faces are all going to be a bit more battle tested.
6th Arkansas loses Gilbert Boit and Aemon Kemboi AFAIK, so not a lot
I'm not sure why people are picking BYU had a shamefully big drop-off after their top 3 and one of those top 3--Mantz--is long gone anyway. Is it because Kenneth Rooks did so well in the steeple?
Yes, BYU lost Mantz, but they also are getting transfer Cristian Allen from Weber State who was 16th at XC nationals last year. Casey Clinger was 8th in XC. Brandon Garnica was all American in the 10k. Kenneth Rooks did very well in the steeple as you mentioned. Aidan Troutner is very good when he runs well. So basically they have the potential to be a podium team but they tend to fall apart at nationals. Lets hope they peak at the right time so we can have an exciting race in November!
I think in order to answer this well, what schools are getting good transfes or foreign imports.
I remember the first year I followed this on the collegiate level, Arkansas got Josphait Boit, Sean Forest, and Peter Kosgesi. I would not have known going into that season who those guys were. One popped out of nowhere from Kenya that indoor season, one was a JUCO transfer and one was an Australian.
Last year, we would have assumed Colorado was dead but they got a bunch of DII, JUCO, an DIII transfers IIRC.
So if anyone knows any of that, that would be helpful.
I have a feeling some East African imports could show up in Tennessee or Alabama because Alabama always gets East Africans and Tennessee has a hot new coach.
I think its going to be really hard to evaluate teams with the transfer portal going wild, international recruits, guys coming back to school. It might be till late September/early October when we see the full picture of this fall. On paper the favorites on the mens would be teams like NAU, Oklahoma State, and Stanford. But a lot of NAUs title hopes lies on Abdi Nurs decision to go pro or stay in school. With NO RECOLLECTION of certain transfers, international talent, or decisions of athletes this is my top 4 teams and top 15 Individuals.
Early season preview at Nuttycombe (10/14). NM vs NC State. Tuohy et all (and McCabe) vs Hutchins?
I wonder who will go to PreNats which is usually that weekend?
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