Mary Cain Becomes a Pro Triathlete, Claims She Could Probably Have Been a D1 Swimmer

I always find it in amusing when runners, for whatever reason, assume and fully believe that they would be just as good in another sporting discipline as they are in running

SafeSport arbitrator did not reject Mary Cain claim about fat shaming. Almost every distance runner who trained under Salazar at the sametime backed up her claims on emotional damage. She definitely suffered.

Swimming is important in draft legal tri. If you don't make the bike group in time, you get lapped and eliminated. In long distance non draft races, you are right. This is why Jordan hasay should give it a shot during her mental burn out phase. Her swim is competitive for AG division. She can make up time on bike and run to challenge "B" level pros

Source?

BTW I see no reason to believe her suggestion, even without hard numbers.

She isn't going to be national class which is why the point about swimming is valid. She will spend less time there than the other 2 disciplines.

I'm a former swimmer, runner, and triathlete. Everything that Cain says is entirely plausible. I am slightly bearish on her triathlon career, but it's likely reasonable for her to shoot for a career as a professional triathlete.

1) The swimming question depends a lot on her times. By age 15, swimmers likely know whether they are a D1 talent or not. If she was under 5:00 in the 500 free, she certainly could have gone D1 (although maybe not for the very best teams). Between 5:00 and 5:15, she could have gone to a mid-major team, but wouldn't have been a star anywhere. Between 5:15 and 5:30, I'm sure she could have found a spot at a small D1, but this is more the range of trying to score at a D3 conference meet. (Of course, the 500 free may not have been her target event, in which case, look up the equivalent power points). Finally, I wouldn't read too much into it, but it is a bit surprising that Cain didn't mention her swim times.

2) She can't get past her physical issues just by switching sports. The training is different, the body type is different and triathletes don't always peak at the same time as runners. But the feeling of being in peak form and firing on all cylinders is the same. Cain for reasons that have discussed ad nauseum is not currently at her physical peak. It's likely that whatever she does as a triathlete, she could have been faster had she switched at age 16.

3) I find that some excellent runners also make excellent swimmers, and some do not. Part of it is experience, but I find that the talent aspect of technique is orthogonal to running talent. It remains to be seen whether Cain has talent in that area. If she does, she could have a successful triathlon career, but if not she may struggle.

4) Cain will likely never be a monster on the bike, but it won't make or break her. If she gets to a place where her swimming is competitive and her running is close to what it used to be, she'll figure out the bike leg. If not, no biking ability will save her.

5) A good reference point for Cain is Gwen Jorgensen. Gwen was likely around 4:50-5:00 for the 500 free in college (solid D1, but not making NCAAs), and an incredible off-the-bike runner. Her bike leg was what you get when you take that outstanding of an athlete and have them work very hard, but I wouldn't say it was a particular talent of hers. She came to triathlon at a similar age as Cain, and after "retiring" from sport. Cain will likely never be able to run like Gwen, and probably not swim like her either, but this is the reason that it's foolish to count out Cain for any success.

To summarize, it really comes down to two things: Does Cain have talent as a swimmer? And does Cain's body still have the ability to be the same level of overall athlete she used to be? If so, she'll be very competitive, potentially on an international level. If not, she may struggle.

Mary Cain lawsuit was not all about fat shaming.

My bad, I retract my statements. To have decent podium chances in draft legal triathlons one must generally be in lead swim group or within striking distance of the lead group out of the water.

I agree. I think in the long course triathlons, runners will be more likely to successfully transition from running to triathlon. There have been a few female, amateur (OTQ in the Marathon) runners who have transitioned to half and full distance triathlons and earned their pro cards within a year.

You can easily look up past swim times for anyone who actually competed. In 2009 Cain saw 1:02.13 leading off a relay. That time ranked 2566 for the 12yo AG. The top time for 12yo girls that year was :51.49. Simon Manuel was 5th at 53.03. Cain was way off from D1.

It takes a special kind of crappy person to continually attack Mary Cain for speaking out against a banned coach who has been a prick for the better part of a few decades.

maxpreps.com

There's something about sophomore Mary Cain - MaxPreps

https://www.maxpreps.com/news/writer/joseph-santoliquito/?id=bd025ba3-9a3f-4d4f-9b21-819f7a1cdb00

MaxPreps News - A converted swimmer, the talented New York sophomore is now making a big splash on the track - even drawing comparisons to Mary Decker.

Open link

I looked in the USA Swimming database and could not find a Mary Cain from NY. That does not mean much since she was pretty young and lots of meets are run outside of USA Swimming.

The article does mention her first love being swimming. Does not seem implausible that she would have been an excellent swimmer.

She was 12...

Being fat is not healthy. How is addressing the topic open and honestly a bad thing?

Don't attack the attacker.

Gee, yuh think?

This genius post blathers and equivocates forever, with very little real content.

Bravo!

Finally found results! Best she did at 500 free was a 5:48 as a 12 year old.

She swam for Badger Swim Club. According to one article I read, butterfly was her favorite.

So, no source provided.

And yes, by the time girls are 12, most of the serious ones have already been ordered—unlike a guy like Zapple, or even Breeja Larson, who I believe only started swimming in her junior year.

It used to be that triathlon was; not good at swimming, not good at biking, not good at running, put it all together and you're not bad. It was possible to take up the sport after a mediocre career in one of the three events and do quite well.

Those days are long gone, competitive triathletes today are at the pinnacle of endurance sports.

That being said, if Cain focuses on draft legal races she is halfway there. Drafting plays a significant role in swimming and cycling. With a background in age group swimming combined with the mental toughness of her high level running career Mary could be very hard to drop. It would take her 3 to 4 years to fine tune her technique, strategy, and fitness.

If she has the time, right mentality, and motivation it would be a lot of fun for her to find out what she could do in the sport. If she carries the weight of heightened expectations on her back there is nothing more frustrating. I'm hoping for the former for her.