He has been improving all the time up to now and even this last year. That is a genetic potential he obviously have unlocked with this training and consistency (and luck). When running 3.28 and 12.48 it is a big MIGHT if he can improve more. He has trained for so long that his potential is already mostly used, but he is still young and might recover and adapt more to this training that if he had been some years older. The probability for improving or not is IMO 50/50, but the improvement cannot be much since he runs 3.28 and only 2+ sec behind the world record. 1 sec would be great. 2 would be extraordinary, but then, he has atually all the way been extraordinary
Jon Arne
I know you are Norwegian and positive on Jakob but you are still too pessimistic about his room for improvement!
It is really quite simple and not at all specific for Jakob but if you train right aerobically you can improve your aerobic capacity for many, many years. Otherwise the likes of Gebrselassie, Lagat, Bekele, Farah and Kipchoge wouldn´t have been able to improve their marathon times up in their thirties (the marathon performance is almost 100% determined by the aerobic capacity).
And you don´t need to change your training because the continuous aerobic training will - surprise, surprise - continue to improve your bodys ability to utilize the oxygen and thus your endurance. I know, however, that the Ingebrigtsens all though they stick to same training schedule run both the reps and the long runs at a higher pace BUT AT THE SAME INTENSITY following their improved endurance. Fore example Henrik ran 10 x 1000m at just below 3:10 as a teenager. Now Jakob (and Filip) are running below 2:45 per 1000m (and 12 times). But at the same intensity (= lactate number 3.31-32).
So not only Jakob but also other young ambitious runners (Hocker, Teare, Nico Young, Gressier) can benefit from improved endurance typical into their mid twenties if the train right aerobically. That is: find the balance between hard days and recovery days (the Ingebrigtsens NEVER train hard 2 days in a row).
And why can a track runner typically not improve his middle and long distance performances into his thirties as the above runners have done in the marathon?
I think it is because you are in your physical prime in the early twenties and then your SPEED and PHYSICAL STRENGTH (strenght not understood as endurance as it often is in the US) slowly begins to deteriorate. In the beginning your improved endurance can make up for this deterioration but sooner or later your overall performance in the track distances will start to decrease. And typically in the mid twenties. But there are exceptions. Recent ones: Makhloufi, Willis, Lewandowski, Mo Ahmed, Mo Farah, Lagat.
I appear pessimistic :-) but I expect he can improve more. good thoughts on the continual improvement. I saw a study stating that younger and more matured runners could have the same measured numbers in terms of VO2, lactate threshold, running economy, but the older ones that had trained for longer had become more fatigue resistant and slowed down less. I guess if that is the case, then that is a good indication why matured runners can run marathon faster and faster over the years. Someone have said we have a limited number of miles in the legs to spend at years of training. That could be for some and not for others. Some are prone to injury and some not.
I think you are right there is a sweet spot when runners still have the speed and strength from youth but have developed the aeroobic qualities and as such can run fast on track and then the peak speed and kick ability slowly is reduced, enough to not win on track anymore, and better move to longer distances where they can keep a high speed for a long time and win on pure endurance
Jakob Ingebrigtsen is not a gifted 1:43.xx 800m man as is Timothy Cheruiyot. I know there are lower mileage 800m/1500m guys. Either Jacob Ingebrigtsen logs more miles than posters on this thread are stating or J. Ingebrigtsen is not clean.
Nope as others are saying he logs more runs.
The takes on the first page already are so bad lmao
Nick Willis ran longer than that, he has more global medals than Jakob and wasn't as big of a young talent.
This really isnt a strong argument
Nick Willis has an olympic silver, bronze and world bronze across his whole career. I'd say very good odds Ingebritsen beats that haul before his 24th birthday. He already had 2 x world top 5s and an Olympic Gold before he turned 21.