ww wrote:
I'm wondering how long this charity running thing will go on. I know that TNT is a big business. But a lot of them will participate in one marathon at most. Won't they run out of new recruits after a while?
It is kind of a fad now. Perhaps, this will pass as Atkins diet.
after i posted i remembered an article i read about this by scott douglass. he wrote about his back in 2001 sort of predicting that this was gonna happen soon. many of his dire predictions have not come to pass. still worth a read though.
the article can be found at:
http://www.scottdouglas.biz/Articles/boomdoom.htm================================================================
"Is the Second Boom Doomed?
Participation seems to be ever increasing. Then again, so did the Nasdaq.
From Road Race Management, March 2001
One can’t help but trip over the stats about running’s second boom: According to USATF’s Road Running Information Center, in 1999, the most recent year for which data is available, there were an estimated 7.1 million finishers from more than 12,000 U.S. running events, more than double the less than 3 million participants 15 years ago. The RRIC estimates that there were about 435,00 marathon finishers that year, up more than 30 percent from just six years earlier.
As anyone who has tried to sign up soon before most major marathons can tell you, anecdotal evidence supports these stats. June’s Grandma’s Marathon closed entries for its 9,000-runner field in early February. After years of filling its field earlier and earlier—last year, the October race closed in February—the Marine Corps Marathon has switched to a staggered registration process, including a lottery, to more fairly distribute its 20,000+ numbers. Even the Chicago Marathon, which used to accept on-site registrations up to the day before the race, felt compelled to cap its field at 37,500 for this year’s run and cut off entries the preceding month. So if you’re a race director, this is a golden age, right?
Right?
Downhill Ahead?
Doug Alred, who manages races every month in the Jacksonville, Fla. area, including the Gate River Run 15K, and operates two running stores, can fairly claim to have his finger on the, er, pulse of running. His take: Rocky times ahead.
"The numbers are definitely going to level off," he says. "They may already have. I’m not saying we’re going to go back to the doldrums of the mid to late 80s, but in two or three years, a lot of the newer races aren’t going to survive."
Although Alred says, "I don’t know that you’ll find many race directors" who agree with him, other running tea-leaf readers share his sense of foreboding.
"The misleading stat is how many race entrants participate in an event for the first time," says the RRIC’s Linda Honikman. "A high number can represent good PR and tremendous growth potential, but it often also masks the dark side of the trend—that last year’s entrants are not returning. This trend varies greatly from race to race and city to city, and is much more common in areas that feature big charity runs. Directors should be as concerned about their repeat customers as overall growth, which may be short term."
Don Kardong, founder of the Lilac Bloomsday Run 12K and a past president of the Road Runners Club of America, says, "I think the trends will continue for awhile. I certainly haven’t noticed any indication of a slump in interest. On the other hand, I don’t have much faith in the long-term interest of the public in running marathons, or anything else for that matter. Maybe I’m just a pessimist, but this is not a public known for its long attention span. Right now, the notion of doing a marathon is appealing, but tomorrow the public could become fascinated with how long they can hold their breath under water."
Irrational Exuberance
Why might running’s second boom take a downturn? Consider the stock market. What was probably a one-time event—the explosion of the Internet and its accompanying technology—caused growth that, in the giddiness of the moment, was cast as ad infinitum reality. Similarly, the growth of charity marathoning and long-overdue influx of greater numbers of women into running are probably not phenomena that can be expected to continue infinitely.
"Our runner/walker numbers were up roughly 30 percent in the past two years, but I don’t anticipate the same level of growth," says Greg Elfers, vice president of campaign development for the Leukemia Society of America’s Team in Training. "In fact, our numbers may start to level off. That’s part of why we’re expanding into other sports." (Team in Training’s biggest recent growth is in cycling and triathlon events.)
Alred puts it more bluntly. "Team in Training has had to change their position and emphasize walking," he says, "because they’re running out of runners."
Elfers tacitly agrees. He says that Team in Training’s marathoners currently comprise 78 percent runners and 22 percent walkers, with the walker segment rapidly increasing. "They see walking a marathon as a more attainable goal," he says. "Also, our recruitment efforts are now more targeted at women, who are more likely to be walkers."
The upshot for marathon directors, of course, is that while such trends might help to perpetuate large fields, they also produce headaches.
"Walkers add a new aspect for marathon organizers," Elfers concedes. "Not every course logistically can accommodate walkers."
Nor, perhaps, do they want to. Alred, who puts on the Jacksonville Marathon, says, "We are not in the business of closing down city streets so that people can walk marathons." Jacksonville’s course remains open for six hours. His stance stems from more than a philosophical distaste for some of the constituents of the second boom.
"Some race directors are destroying the sport as we know it," he laments. "They get so caught up in the money they can make now that they don’t look at the effects on running as a sport. When this fad dies and the money dries up, their races are going to dry up right along with them."
Kardong appreciates the conundrum that marathon directors face. "If an event wants to attract more entrants, they should expect to have to make concessions to very slow joggers and walkers," he says. "That’s where most of the new entrants are likely to come from."
At the same time, he notes, "I think it’s fine for any race to make a decision—based on traffic delays, volunteer energy, overall philosophy, etc.—on where they want the time cut-off to be. It really angers me when people just expect an event to stay open forever, especially since most of those people have never helped out at an event."
Marathon? Check. What Now?
The other main reason Alred and others fear for running’s future is the Everest-or-nothing approach of many second-boom participants.
"The people who are driving the boom—the charity runners—aren’t becoming real runners," says Alred. "They run their marathon and then they quit. That’s true of the vast majority of them." To buttress his claim, Alred adds, "The stats about participation can be misleading. The average nonmarathon event has less people in it."
Elfers says that, because Team in Training has 59 regional chapters, each with its own database, tracking the program’s recidivism rate is difficult. "In general, about 15 percent of past participants will return within the next two years," he says. Given that local 10Ks aren’t in the habit of asking its entrants detailed questions about their running history, it’s unlikely that charity marathoners’ continued participation can ever be precisely quantified. Yet even Elfers allows that runners who finish a marathon within their first year in the sport might not produce steady business for race directors.
"Hopefully, what happens is that they have a life-changing experience," he says. "You would hope that having reached a certain fitness level, they’d want to maintain it. Our training program is not just about mileage, but also nutrition and fitness, and we encourage people to stay active."
But, he allows, "marathons are separate animals. It’s true, we present marathons as the ultimate running challenge." Given the additional significant fundraising challenge associated with being a Team in Training member and the vacation-like travel aspects of many charity runners’ first marathons, Elfers agrees that next week’s 8K might not seem irresistibly enticing to these runners.
Nor can local races easily reach these runners. "Our list is too precious," Elfers says when asked if race directors can buy Team in Training’s mailing list. "We tell participants that we won’t sell our lists."
Of how to convert first-time charity marathoners into lifelong runners and regular race participants, Kardong says, "We discussed this quite a bit when I was president. The organization has developed materials—like Miss Road Manners’ Guidelines—to help newcomers understand the racing environment. We’ve also encouraged clubs to create ways to welcome beginners. Some clubs actually have a ‘greeter’ for people who show up at club functions for the first time. It may sound dorky, but it works."
Kardong continues, "The RRCA and its member clubs are always trying to find ways to keep running fun and entertaining, which is the main way you’re going to attract and keep participants. A positive social atmosphere is what keeps people coming. If nonmarathons want to attract charity marathoners and other first-timers, they need to remember that."
Running for Runners
Alred is enough of a realist—and businessman—to know that races must play up their festive atmospheres to attract and retain numbers. He cautions, however, that races in it for the long haul shouldn’t neglect their more hardcore constituents.
"If you’re going to be a running event that wants to be around in five years," he says, "you have to keep the competitive spirit alive. You can’t operate like a tourist town, where you don’t care if people have a bad experience because they’re probably not coming back anyway. We’re going to be out there whether there are 600 or 1,500 people running the Jacksonville Marathon."
Kardong says that even Bloomsday, with its perpetual position among America’s largest races, knows it needs to be about more than the numbers.
"We try to do everything," he says. "We want to have a first-class footrace for the elites, we want a good racing environment for nonelite runners and we try to make the event fun for everyone of every speed. I think it’s fair to say that the core of Bloomsday’s excitement—for everyone involved—is the integrity of the competition at the front end."