What are the odds no American is in the 1500 final?

Using runningart’s history and probabilities; 3:30 guy (centrowitz) 100% in, 3:33 guy (Hocker) 50% in, 3:34 guy (nuguse) 50% in. So the odds would be:

0-0%

1-25%

2-50%

3-25%

This seems fair to me.

Everyone sleeping on Nuguse! Rooting for him

my two pennies wrote:

Using runningart’s history and probabilities; 3:30 guy (centrowitz) 100% in, 3:33 guy (Hocker) 50% in, 3:34 guy (nuguse) 50% in. So the odds would be:

0-0%

1-25%

2-50%

3-25%

This seems fair to me.

Sorry, Centro's 3:30 was SIX years ago. For the Runningart2004 1500m Final Probability Calculator to work you have to input times from the last 24mo.

Here we go logic nerds:

If 3:33-3:35= 50% making final (.5) then we have probabilities of all three:

A: .5

B: .5

C: .5

All Happening: 12.5%

None Happening: 12.5%

At Least One Happening: 87.5%

Exactly One Happening: 37.5%

Alan

That's not how it works sunshine. It's all based on probabilities.

I just eyeballed it and said "3:33-3:35 gives you 50% chance". Now, someone with more time and care could easily do a probability analysis of the worlds best times to really narrow this down.

Alan

I honestly think the 1500m is very weak right now globally when compared to other events.

I would rank event depth in the distance events as follows:

Men’s rankings

1. 10,000 m

2. 5,000 m

3. Marathon

4. 1500 m

5. 800 m

6. 3000 m steeple

Right now we have four athletes in the 10,000 who could compete who are among the greatest of all time for that event. We have about 10 in the top 20 all time for 5k and the 1500 is just average in terms of depth.

So all that being said America should easily get two athletes to the finals and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Centrowitz or Hocker wind up with a medal as they are amongst the fastest finishers of the bunch.

Hocker and Centro have not run under 3:35 the last two years therefore they are not in sub 3:35 shape now?

Or sub 3:32 for that matter.

Your probabilities assume each runner has given a max effort to run a fast time.

They have not.

Star wrote:

Hocker and Centro have not run under 3:35 the last two years therefore they are not in sub 3:35 shape now?

Or sub 3:32 for that matter.

Your probabilities assume each runner has given a max effort to run a fast time.

They have not.

You are correct all of the 1500s run by Americans have been tempo runs.

Alan

20

Runningart2004 wrote:

Sorry, Centro's 3:30 was SIX years ago. For the Runningart2004 1500m Final Probability Calculator to work you have to input times from the last 24mo.

Sorry, Centro ran 3:32 just 21 months ago in Doha. Please recalculate.

Runningart2004 wrote:

You are correct all of the 1500s run by Americans have been tempo runs.

Alan

They’ve all been big negative split races, which is not efficient for running your fastest time.

So yeah, tempo runs.

alfredo wrote:

Runningart2004 wrote:

Sorry, Centro's 3:30 was SIX years ago. For the Runningart2004 1500m Final Probability Calculator to work you have to input times from the last 24mo.

Sorry, Centro ran 3:32 just 21 months ago in Doha. Please recalculate.

Bumped up to .6!

Alan

How many guys in the field have run 13:00?

Cheruiyot back in the OG!

- Centro chances of medaling : 15%

- Chances of at least one american in final: 50%