TMADDDHASFNE wrote:
Galen will win this race. He'll get the standard. He may run the Trials. If he does, he'll win.
The real question is, will AlSal be in the stands wearing an oversized mask to disguise his identity?
If they allow fans, he can buy a ticket like everybody else.
Rupp could be sitting down on the start line when the gun goes off and still run sub 27:30. Olympic silver and 26:44. Posters here are acting like he retired from running and is jumping in a turkey trot at age 40. This is a guy that is going to medal in the marathon this summer. 28 minutes, please.
I predict between 3 and 10s below the OG auto qualifier
I’m saying 27:50, wins by two seconds, good race for him. I err more on the side of “low-28 would be a solid TT during heavy marathon training” than “He’s a 26:44 guy, he could win the Trials if he chose to.” I believe his internationally competitive track ship has sailed.
Yeah on second thought I think he'll go slower. It doesn't look like anyone else in the field will break 28, and he's not going to solo and win by 30 seconds. He ran this meet in 2017 in only 28:18.
Rupp has made it very clear that he is shooting for gold at the Olympics. And some think he will struggle to break 28? 27:25 on a bad day, and there is a non-zero chance he breaks 27.
Rupp fan wrote:
Rupp has made it very clear that he is shooting for gold at the Olympics. And some think he will struggle to break 28? 27:25 on a bad day, and there is a non-zero chance he breaks 27.
OK well there comes a point where absurd posts become commonplace. Who cares what Rupp is shooting for at the Olympics? Galen last broke 27 in 2014. It is almost as if some of you believe that time has stood still. Galen likely would struggle to break 27 at this meet (even in 2014 shape) as he would not have had the pacemaking he has almost always benefited from. Galen needed pacemakers to go much under 27 in his prime. The shoes are not going to make Galen sip from the fountain of youth. Galen is now past his prime as a runner and he is not even focused on breaking 27, which he couldn’t do even if he was.
boss man wrote:
Rupp could be sitting down on the start line when the gun goes off and still run sub 27:30. Olympic silver and 26:44. Posters here are acting like he retired from running and is jumping in a turkey trot at age 40. This is a guy that is going to medal in the marathon this summer. 28 minutes, please.
absurd.
In order of probability;
He wont start; 65%
he wont finish / jogs in; 30%
sub 28; 5%
Hall Pass wrote:
Runnerofruns wrote:
The disrespect for Rupp and Centro on these boards is insane.
Do people forget who these guys are?
Rupp doesn’t run “bad” races. The reason? His training paces are faster than his American competitors’ PR paces. I’m not a Rupp fanboy, that is just the truth. The guy is (arguably) the greatest American runner of all time. He is a legitimate contender for an Olympic marathon medal this year. There are NO legit contenders in the Olympic marathon without sub 27 potential during that calendar year.
If he toes the line, expect a sub 27:30 time unless he is just pacing a teammate and steps off at 6-8k.
He certainly does START bad races. What he rarely does (but we have seen it) is FINISH bad races. Choked in Boston, walked off the course. Not the only time he's played that card. OK, about finishing bad races. The only USATF meet I've been to in recent years (Cal State Sacramento) featured just such a performance. No time anywhere near those being mentioned during this thread was run. After not even contending for a podium spot in a race limited to US citizens, I don't think he's raced on a track since. Feel free to correct this if he has. I was near his mom in the bleachers (it is an appallingly poor stadium with portable seats and restrooms) and she said "Not bad for a marathoner."
I'm not saying his career in general is a joke, but he has frequently run nowhere near the top of his game. He has had some amazing days, and many that are worth forgetting.
Perhaps you would like to make a list of all races Rupp has DNF or run really bad? The truth is Rupp is really consistent when he races.
Where talking about perhaps the best American distance runner of all time, and to even imply that his career is a joke is a sign of total stupidity.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
I’m saying 27:50, wins by two seconds, good race for him. I err more on the side of “low-28 would be a solid TT during heavy marathon training” than “He’s a 26:44 guy, he could win the Trials if he chose to.” I believe his internationally competitive track ship has sailed.
Winning the trials doesn’t make him internationally competitive.
I agree with you that he is no longer internationally competitive on the track.
I agree with others that he could still win the trials *if he wanted*.
For what it’s worth, Rupp ran 60:22 in a road time trial ~7 months ago as a rust buster. That performance, according to IAAF, is the equivalent of a 27:31 10,000m on the track.
I'd go 27:40s because of below:
Age is not a major issue - same age roughly as Farah was when he ran 28:15 on the roads in 2019 (I think Farah is a good comparison based on training history, events, performances, years at peak etc but Rupp not quite peaking as early) so would expect faster on track, and Rupp to be comparable.
2:09 in Atlanta worth approx 28 minutes flat on VDOT but considering that course, he likely was in faster shape
Has been doing speedwork for a reason as per previous posters
BUT
I can't see him having tapered dramatically for this if he is in marathon training so prob not deeper into the 27s
lots of posts to fix but i pick just this one for now
Well,, wrote:
Perhaps you would like to make a list of all races Rupp has run? The truth is Rupp doesn't run races.
Where talking about perhaps the best American distance runner of all time, and to even imply that he will run is a sign of stupidity.
Rupp fan wrote:
Rupp has made it very clear that he is shooting for gold at the Olympics. And some think he will struggle to break 28? 27:25 on a bad day, and there is a non-zero chance he breaks 27.
No, there is a zero chance he breaks 27. You’re off your rocker.
Rupp could close down the Acropolis in Portland, grab 2 hours sleep and run a 27:30 in his Galaxy of the Guardians PJ’s while wearing face mask ~ for his allergies of course.
Will Chris Derrick break 31?
i like fixing the posts most that contain an insult of some kind
seasoned ranker wrote:
No, there is a zero chance he runs. You’re off your rocker.
douglas burke wrote:
TMADDDHASFNE wrote:
Galen will win this race. He'll get the standard. He may run the Trials. If he does, he'll win.
The real question is, will AlSal be in the stands wearing an oversized mask to disguise his identity?
If they allow fans, he can buy a ticket like everybody else.
False. Buying a ticket and attending the meet would violate his ban.
just the fakks wrote:
wazzu1452 wrote:
Hassan Mead in 2017 was the last American to beat Rupp at this distance.
Because Rupp was a marathoner trying to do a strong 10K with ZERO track work.
Track work is unimportant for the 10k.
Definitely top 5 worst takes on this forum ever.
Looking forward to see if you can crack into the top 5 again next time you say something.
anacondarunner wrote:
douglas burke wrote:
If they allow fans, he can buy a ticket like everybody else.
False. Buying a ticket and attending the meet would violate his ban.
I don't think Alberto really cares what they say he is "banned" from. Maybe he will go in disguise and theyll escort him out or even arrest him mid race. I could see him wearing a disguise and getting away with it. He would be noticed obviously if he did go because he's a well known and popular man. He ain't some nobody who no one cares about. He would be noticed Like a sore thumb. He's an interesting man.
I think 27:40-50 is reasonable. Sub-27:30 could be possible with his assumed fitness, but seems unlikely with his presumed marathon buildup.
That said, there seems to be an assumption that because "Rupp doesn't race" or "Rupp has run a track PR in X years" that he has no footspeed. To be clear: if he's in 60min half shape, he's fit and pretty fast. Scan through all the 60min or under guys from 2019 world list and you'll see a lot of them running 26:50-28min during the same season. If we assume Rupp is at this fitness level, something in the mid-27's shouldn't be out of the question.
His ability to compete at the highest level for half and full marathons combines a big fitness buildup with his pre-designed track speed. He's unlikely to be or return to being in 12:58/26:44 shape, but let's not pretend as if he's a 14min guy all of a sudden.
douglas burke wrote:
TMADDDHASFNE wrote:
Galen will win this race. He'll get the standard. He may run the Trials. If he does, he'll win.
The real question is, will AlSal be in the stands wearing an oversized mask to disguise his identity?
If they allow fans, he can buy a ticket like everybody else.
I wonder if he gets the COVID vaccine or not.