Peer Mediator wrote:
extreme-bias wrote:
Not going on a single point which was addressed to you.
"Everyone knows that elite 800 and 1500 guys run about 1 (800) or 2 (1500) seconds faster at Monaco than anywhere else."
That's what you have written. So, you were wrong? Than maybe you should clarify that.
Quercetani was the "official IAAF statistician" back in the day? What's the meaning of this at all, can you please give some confirmation? Or just admit that it completely was made up by you.
All of your post gives no sense at all - maybe you re-read it?
Your statistics are wrong.
Tuka (1:43.47) and McBride (1:43.51) have run faster outside Monaco, Tuka while winning a silver a the worlds - maybe you havn't seen this one, because it doesn't fit your theory?
But what's the point at all of a comparison monaco 800m / non Monaco 800m which lists only athletes which have set their PB in Monaco? It's almost useless.
Sp, you are really making the point that Rieti times are fast BECAUSE it's a low key, non pressure meeting? Ludicrious. The 1500m races usually were filled with local italian runners, Zurich always has had the best possible lineup.
The times from Rieti are the biggest anomaly in top athletics in the last 40 years, EVERYONE knows it.
So, your laughable stats CLEARLY SHOW that Monaco is significantly faster than Rieti in the 1500m? But slower in the 800m, why is that? Have you checked any other event? Have you compared the lineups every year?
You have contraticted yourself in this post. Is Monaco clearly faster than any other track or not?
I adressed all the 'points' you made re the Monaco track, but you clearly didn't read clearly what I originally wrote.
Deanouk wrote:Everyone knows that elite 800 and 1500 guys run about 1 (800) or 2 (1500) seconds faster at Monaco than anywhere else. Regardless of why that is, all top meet track today would be of the latest Mondo material, which are certainly faster than those synthetic ones from 1980.
I have highlighted the word, 'about', to show a rough, non specific time; an estimate. I then backed this up in my subsequent post by showing that from stats (up to about Aug 2019, hence the lack of updated info on Tuka) of the fastest 10 men on the Monaco track ever over 800m, the average time faster they have run there than any other track in their careers is 0.45secs. If one goes on to looking at the top 20 fastest men at Monaco, or looking at the mean average difference between what any athlete ran at Monaco compared to their best time on any other track in any specific season, then you would get more data with which to compare.
Your stats looked at just 5 or 6 years at the beginning of the last decade and compared just 2 tracks; Monaco and Rieti. I never even mentioned Rieti in my original post, that was your choice to include a track that hasn't even held a meet in the last 5 years or so.
Moreover, I never stated that, 'Monaco was 1 secs faster than Rieti between 2009 and 2015', which is the statement your stats seem to be trying to contradict!
I have also highlighted the phrase, 'Regardless of why that is,' to express lack of explanation for why Monaco throws up very fast times in the middle distances. Hence I have not dismissed or questioned the possibility the faster times are not indeed the result of several factors, including weather conditions, prize money, great weather, pacing, etc. The only thing I claimed as a fact is that the 'latest Mondo material, which are certainly faster than those synthetic ones from 1980. '. Which is the relevant part in the discussion on this thread about expectations of Brazier running a 1:41 (seemingly with ease) on Monaco.
I then provided evidence (as of Aug 2019) supporting the suggestion (for whatever reason) that times run on the Monaco track over 1500m tend to be "about" (see definition above) 2 secs faster than on other top tracks. For this I didn't provide 1 track as comparison or just a narrow 6 year period, I took the top 10 performers on what many would consider the top 4 meets in producing fast times over the last few decades; Rieti, Brussels, Zurich and Monaco; and calculated the mean average for each. These 4 tracks have all consistently produced good pacing and top names running in the 1500m. The results showed that Monaco was a second faster than any of the other tracks and 'about' 1.5secs faster than the average of the other 3.
extreme-bias wrote:But what's the point at all of a comparison monaco 800m / non Monaco 800m which lists only athletes which have set their PB in Monaco? It's almost useless.
No, it makes perfect sense, as only the very top athletes are invited to Monaco, and many are not able to run there, so they are unable to produce data to be compared. Almost every Diamond League race lays on a 49/50 sec ist 400m in the elite 800 races, so it is actually making the odds far better for any athlete running in Monaco, to produce a faster time in any one of a number of other races at other venues. I never said it was fullproof, but if Monaco wasn't faster than other tracks, then one would expect to see elites running very close to their Monaco pbs elsewhere!
extreme-bias wrote:Sp, you are really making the point that Rieti times are fast BECAUSE it's a low key, non pressure meeting? Ludicrious. The 1500m races usually were filled with local italian runners, Zurich always has had the best possible lineup.
No, I was actually making the point that Rieti was SLOW compared to Monaco. Traditionally Brussels, Zurich and Rieti were always held after any major champs that may have been held in any given year, and were invariably furnished with very good pacing. Yes, the overall depth was always better in Zurich and Brussels, but Rieti regularly had 2 or 3 top athletes in any race that followed a good pace.
extreme-bias wrote: The times from Rieti are the biggest anomaly in top athletics in the last 40 years, EVERYONE knows it.
No. Well certainly not as anomalous as Monaco or Zurich or Brussels.
extreme-bias wrote:So, your laughable stats CLEARLY SHOW that Monaco is significantly faster than Rieti in the 1500m? But slower in the 800m, why is that?
No, I produced no stats that showed Monaco was slower than Rieti over 800m.
extreme-bias wrote: "Everyone knows that elite 800 and 1500 guys run about 1 (800) or 2 (1500) seconds faster at Monaco than anywhere else."
That's what you have written. So, you were wrong? Than maybe you should clarify that.
OK. Let's start with the fact that Monaco was re-layed in 2010 (prior to the meet there that year), and the purpose was to make it fast and top of the range.
http://www.presse.gouv.mc/304/wwwnew.nsf/1909$/4141C64660AF4F5EC1257727002AD7E4GB?OpenDocument&1GBThis is an interesting exert: -
"The work will focus on the resurfacing of the areas concerned: the first few centimetres of the upper layer of the track will be scraped off, then replaced by rubber resin, cast in one jointless block. This is made possible due to the physico-chemical compatibility between the new and old resin. The track will be faster and therefore conducive to new records, including at the next Herculis athletics meeting - Diamond League on Thursday 22nd July 2010."
The Monaco meet was ranked No.2 in 2009 (probably behind Zurich), but was already an established meet, with Baala running 3:30.96 in 2009.
But the fast times en masse didn't start until.... 2010!
Below you will find a comparison between what many of the elite athletes ran the 1500m on the new track of Monaco, compared with their best time run ANYWHERE else that same season, not compared to just 1 specific other meet as you provided. This is something I analysed some time ago, so it is only for the 5 seasons between 2010 and 2015. I'm sure that something similar would also be seen if done with the subsequent years that followed.
In 2010 the 5 fastest men all set their times in Monaco. I did a bit of research and I've put their time in Monaco followed by their non Monaco season's best time:
1. Kiprop ~ 3:29.27 (3:30.61) difference - 1.34
2. Laalou ~ 3:29.53 (3:32.75) " - 3.22
3. Choge ~ 3:30.22 (3:31.81) ' - 1.59
4. Wheating ~ 3:30.90 (3:37.52! - although he ran a Mile in 3:51.74 which = 3:34.57, so I'll take that) - 3.67
5. Gregson ~ 3:31.06 (3:35.42) difference - 4.36.
That's an average difference of 2.84 secs faster at Monaco for those athletes. The fastest non Monaco performance in 2010 was Kiplagat's 3:30.61 in Berlin.
2011 was a bit of a down year, but the meet still produced 4 times in the top 10 for the year.
2. (second fastest that year) Kiplagat ~ 3:30.47 (3:31.39) difference - 0.92
6. Chepseba ~ 3:31.74 (3:30.94) difference + 0.80 * The only athlete in the past 6 seasons (5 if not counting this season) listed here that has run a faster time on another track other than Monaco .
7. Kaki ~ 3:31.76 (didn't run any other listed 1500 that year)
8. Willis ~ 3:31.79 (3:33.22) difference - 1.43
15. Cheboi ~ 3:32.45 (3:33.82) " - 1.37
That's an average of 0.73 secs faster at Monaco for the 4 with other listed times for 1500 that year. The fastest non Monaco performance in 2011 was Kiprop's 3:30.46 in Rieti.
2012 had 6 athletes in the top 10 coming from Monaco's race: -
1. Kiprop ~ 3:28.88 (3:29.78) difference - 0.90
3. Chepseba ~ 3:29.77 ( 3:29.90) " - 0.13
5. Willis ~ 3:30.35 (3:34.70) " - 4.35
6. Makhloufi ~ 3:30.80 (3:32.58) " - 1.78
7. Birgen ~ 3:31.00 (3:31.17) " - 0.17
9. Kiplagat Seuri! ~ 3:31.61 (3:33.27) " - 1.66.
That's an average of 1.50 secs faster at Monaco for the 6 with other listed times for 1500 that year. The fastest non Monaco performance in 2012 was Kiplagat's 3:29.63 in Doha.
2013:-
1. Kiprop ~ 3:27.72 (3:31.13) difference - 3.41
2. Farah ~ 3:28.81 (no other listed 1500 for 2013)
3. Ndiku ~ 3:29.50 (3:33.41) difference - 3.91
5. Birgen ~ 3:30.77 (3:31.90) " - 1.13
6. Tanui-Ozbilen ~ 3:31.30 (3:35.09) " - 3.79
7. Cheboi ~ 3:31.53 (3:32.85) " - 1.32
That's an average of 2.71 secs faster at Monaco for the 5 with other listed times for 1500 that year. The fastest non Monaco performance in 2013 was Kiplagat's 3:30.13 in Rieti.
2014:-
1. Kiplagat ~ 3:27.64 (3:29.70) difference - 2.06
2. Kiprop ~ 3:28.45 (3:29.18) " - 0.73
3. Kwemoi ~ 3:28.81 (3:31.48) " - 2.67
4. Souleiman ~ 3:29.58 (3:30.16) " - 0.58
5. Iguider ~ 3:29.83 (3:32.09) " - 2.26
=6. Wote ~ 3:29.91 (3:30.86) " - 0.95
=6. Willis ~ 3:29.91 (3:34.72) " - 4.81
10. Manzano ~ 3:30.98 (3:34.40) " - 3.42
11. Centrowitz ~ 3:31.09 (3:32.70) " - 1.61
That's an average of 2.12 secs faster at Monaco for the 9 with other listed times for 1500 that year. The fastest non Monaco performance in 2014 was Kiprop's 3:29.18 in Doha.
Monaco clearly has great credentials for fast time and was clearly the fastest/best track in the world for middle distances. This analysis doesn't prove it is in any way illegal, and is certainly not short, but it does raise the question as to why top athletes run on average of 2.03 secs faster (based on the data of the 29 athletes above over the past 5 seasons) on the Monaco track than on any other, over the course of the season?
I would suggest looking at the above data that the number of 'fast times' increased by 2012 and thereafter, as athletes realised that it was an incredibly fast track.
Edit.
Roberto Quercetani was the founder of the AFTS in 1950, which was established as the statistical body to support the IAAF. He was a native of Firenze and I read an article from a magazine or an extract from a book some years ago, where he stated that he had been present that night when Coe ran his WR. I did read it, have total faith in its validity, but am unable to produce a link or exact reference at present. While he never had the title, 'Official statistician to the IAAF' he has produced numerous lists of statistics and data for them (initially for putting together heats at championships) and has written numerous publications in association with the IAAF.