The mile moved a total of 2.48 seconds between 1980 and 1985. It moved 1.93 seconds between 1988 and 1993 and then 1.26 seconds down 6 years later. As far as the mile is concerned you are incorrect.
Lest you think the 1500 shows a different story...It moved 2.63 seconds between 1980 and 1985, 2.07 between 1988 and 1995 and then 1.37 lower 3 years later.
Everything being equal, I think Ryun would run the pants off of Webb and Centro in a prime vs prime vs prime matchup.
He was truly great, at least for a couple of years.
Jzs wrote:
Given that Ryun ran on dirt for his 3:33.1, 3:51.3 and 3:51.1; I’d say Ryun was capable of [ 3:47.6, maybe 3:46.7 to as low as 3:43.989 with better pacing ]* ... on today’s rubber carpets.
Therefore, according to him he was cheating.
Yes, people like to forget how dirty the 80s were on both sides of the iron curtain. Legal blood transfusions pepped up with roids without ooc testing for a large part, a very powerful combo.
rekrunner wrote:
Coevett wrote:
El G was lucky testing for EPO came in 2005 and not before the 2004 Olympics.
Was he so lucky?
EPO testing was developed and first used in Sydney Olympics in 2000.
In 2002, the IAAF announced out of competition (urine) testing for EPO.
Coevett loves to change the facts and makes up things the way it's convenient for him.
The reality is we can "prove" that ANY runner was dirty, using his methods.
Deanouk wrote:
rekrunner wrote:
Maybe 3:26/3:43 by a North African is not clean, but you were talking specifically about Ryun, and specifically about EPO.
I think you provided a great analysis about how modern tracks and the right competition would shave a few seconds off, putting him in the 3:29/3:47 ballpark.
But then you close with a statement, without any detailed analysis or argument, about not being able to run 3:26 or 3:43 without EPO, as if it would be possible with EPO.
Given that so few runners in the '90s, '00s, and '10s have run faster than Coe and Cram in the mid-1980s, and only 2 non-Africans have, running as fast as 3:28.95, I'm just curious how much more do you think EPO could bring to Ryun, and why?
Sorry if I didn't make myself clear. Originally I was responding to a poster (Jzs) who suggested a range of times which he believed Ryun could run on modern day tracks (mondo). His range went down to 3:43.9 for the mile. I put forward my reasoning that this wasn't possible for Ryun (who I presume was clean), or indeed any runner we have yet seen, to achieve clean.
I think 3:44 high is about where the clean WR should be (and yes, I base this on who I feel was clean and who wasn't, so it can't be proved) if run with almost perfect pacing, drafting, conditions, on 80's synthetic. This would be faster on current mondo tracks, but I don't think it would be more than a second faster. And, I don't think, based on what I've seen and the stats of his races, that Ryun would be much better than 3:47 on 80's synthetics. I know a lot of people believe he was capable of faster than that, mainly due to his fast last laps, but I don't think there is much evidence at all to gather information about what he could do off a fast initial pace, which is what would be required to run those sorts of times.
Thus, in summary, Ryun was probably clean, probably capable (in 67) of a 3:47 mile on 80's synthetic (with good pacing, drafting, etc), which is probably worth 3:46 on current mondo tracks. If he could take EPO in his 67 shape and run on todays tracks, then maybe he goes 3:43 (and 3:26), but that depends on whether he is a good responder and what the average percentage increas over 1500m is! From what I've read and researched it looks to be in the region of 3 secs for the elites. In other words, EL G would probably only have run 3:29/3:46 without EPO (and the likely other cocktail he was on).
Hope that clarifies my position.
So the great and clean Jim Ryun could have run as fast as the evil and mean El Guerrouj at his peak, at barely 20 yo, with old "bad" training, and an early burn out.
I love how you guys on letsrun are biased on your country.
rekrunner wrote:
Coevett wrote:
El G was lucky testing for EPO came in 2005 and not before the 2004 Olympics.
Was he so lucky?
EPO testing was developed and first used in Sydney Olympics in 2000.
In 2002, the IAAF announced out of competition (urine) testing for EPO.
Good luck finding El G in his Atlas Mountains training base for an OOC. WADA was created after El G WRs, And independent OOC was implenented prior yo Sidney 2000 (2500 tests, but not in preseason).
How about 5k, 10k, marathon, swimming and cycling?
lazy math prof wrote:
How about 5k, 10k, marathon, swimming and cycling?
How about it? -- it is your claim. In many ways, this claim fails too for all these events.
In the running events, looking as far back as the 1960s, using a depth of quality (average of 5 fastest) metric over each Olympic cycle for the men:
5K and 10K saw:
- great advancements from East Africans from 1993 onwards, to the present
- similar improvements from North Africans until 2000, followed by an equally rapid decline
- non-Africans with a rapid improvement until the mid-1980s, then only very modest improvements ending around 2012
- since 2009, opportunities for 10K and more recently 5K are declining, due to format changes in track, causing many East Africans to skip track altogether, and go to the roads, leaving these events wide open for Slow Mo to dominate with a fast kick finish.
The marathon saw:
- modest gains from the '70s until 2000
- modest gains from East Africans until around 2007, when Geb started time-trialling
- no further signficant gains after 2000 from non-Africans nor North Africans, although notably Khalid Khannouchi set the world record in 1999 and again in 2002
- rapid gains from East Africans from 2008 onwards
- more rapid gains across the board with the introduction of the Nike Vaporfly
Swimming:
- saw the most gains from swimsuit technology, leading to a massive spike in world records before they were ultimately banned; we saw a similar effect in the marathon with a new running shoe
Cycling:
- nobody seems to talk about world records in cycling
- recently two meta-studies evaluated EPO studies on cycling, concluding that EPO effects were over-estimated, and in real world conditions of the grand tours, would not translate to significant performance increases
casual obsever wrote:
Yes, people like to forget how dirty the 80s were on both sides of the iron curtain. Legal blood transfusions pepped up with roids without ooc testing for a large part, a very powerful combo.
In the evolution of the 1500m worldwide, the most significant gains occurred in the 1970s, where depths of quality improved by 4 seconds from 3:36 to 3:32. By the mid-1980s this improved by nearly another 2 seconds to around 3:30 -- times often achieved today with stricter doping controls.
Over the next few decades, about two dozen Africans have run faster than Cram and Coe, but only two non-Africans.
rekrunner wrote:
Over the next few decades, about two dozen Africans have run faster than Cram and Coe, but only two non-Africans.
Yes. With - after decades of optimizing - better training, better shoes, better tracks, more time trials, and drafting all the way to the finish line.
rekrunner wrote:
5K and 10K saw:
- great advancements from East Africans from 1993 onwards, to the present
To the present? Looks to me as if the guys are plateauing or even slowing down since a decade.
rekrunner wrote:
- non-Africans with a rapid improvement until the mid-1980s, then only very modest improvements ending around 2012
Yes. With - after decades of optimizing - better training, better shoes, better tracks, more time trials, and drafting all the way to the finish line.
casual obsever wrote:
Yes, people like to forget how dirty the 80s were on both sides of the iron curtain. Legal blood transfusions pepped up with roids without ooc testing for a large part, a very powerful combo.
And people like you also ignore that there was out of competition testing in several European countries (including the UK) from the early 80’s . Blood transfusions were banned in 1985 and the evidence of its use is anecdotal and revolves around a handful of 10k athletes from Finland and Italy. If it was so widespread and legal before 85, then why didn’t/ haven’t athletes discussed or admitted to using it during that time?
Deanouk wrote:
If it was so widespread and legal before 85, then why didn’t/ haven’t athletes discussed or admitted to using it during that time?
Because it would taint their reputations and the perception that it was all thanks to their hard work and pure ethics.
The reality of running wrote:
rekrunner wrote:
Was he so lucky?
EPO testing was developed and first used in Sydney Olympics in 2000.
In 2002, the IAAF announced out of competition (urine) testing for EPO.
Coevett loves to change the facts and makes up things the way it's convenient for him.
The reality is we can "prove" that ANY runner was dirty, using his methods.
We also know that the IAAF during that period was run by a corrupt dictator who used bribery to cover up positive tests.
We also know that the EPO test brought in for the Sydney Olympics was one that only detected EPO used within 24 hours of using it, which was chosen by the IOC instead of a test which could detect EPO use over a much longer period.
We also know that many countries in Africa (certainly Kenya and Ethiopia) were deemed too poor to afford an OOC testing programme and therefore never had one! Kenya only remedying that anomaly a few years ago after pressure from the IAAF.
We also know that athletes training in remote high altitude areas in Africa were unable to be reached by testers, who themselves would be unable to travel so far and return to their European labs within the allotted time frame before the samples would have degraded to a point where they would be unreliable.
We also know that the initial test for EPO was relatively ineffective and unreliable: throwing up many false negatives ((Lagat!?) and being unable to catch known/ admitted users like Jones!
We also know that the improved and more effective test for EPO came out in 2005, the year in which El G didn’t run and retired.
The reality of running wrote:
Deanouk wrote:
Sorry if I didn't make myself clear. Originally I was responding to a poster (Jzs) who suggested a range of times which he believed Ryun could run on modern day tracks (mondo). His range went down to 3:43.9 for the mile. I put forward my reasoning that this wasn't possible for Ryun (who I presume was clean), or indeed any runner we have yet seen, to achieve clean.
I think 3:44 high is about where the clean WR should be (and yes, I base this on who I feel was clean and who wasn't, so it can't be proved) if run with almost perfect pacing, drafting, conditions, on 80's synthetic. This would be faster on current mondo tracks, but I don't think it would be more than a second faster. And, I don't think, based on what I've seen and the stats of his races, that Ryun would be much better than 3:47 on 80's synthetics. I know a lot of people believe he was capable of faster than that, mainly due to his fast last laps, but I don't think there is much evidence at all to gather information about what he could do off a fast initial pace, which is what would be required to run those sorts of times.
Thus, in summary, Ryun was probably clean, probably capable (in 67) of a 3:47 mile on 80's synthetic (with good pacing, drafting, etc), which is probably worth 3:46 on current mondo tracks. If he could take EPO in his 67 shape and run on todays tracks, then maybe he goes 3:43 (and 3:26), but that depends on whether he is a good responder and what the average percentage increas over 1500m is! From what I've read and researched it looks to be in the region of 3 secs for the elites. In other words, EL G would probably only have run 3:29/3:46 without EPO (and the likely other cocktail he was on).
Hope that clarifies my position.
So the great and clean Jim Ryun could have run as fast as the evil and mean El Guerrouj at his peak, at barely 20 yo, with old "bad" training, and an early burn out.
I love how you guys on letsrun are biased on your country.
No, that’s not what I wrote! Read more carefully.
I stated that IF Ryun from 67 was transported to to a more recent synthetic track ( let’s say from the 80’s ) with more modern spikes and with ideal pacing, conditions, drafting , etc, then he COULD run 3:29/ 3:46/47.
This is about what I expect EL G would have run with same variables without EPO, presuming that he was on EPO when running 3:26.0 and 3:43.1., which I strongly believe he was.
El G was clearly, doped or not, an incredible talent and still managed to dominate in a period when probably all his peers also doped.
Thus I am saying that El G and Ryun were of similar natural talent and ability. The big difference in time between their respective pbs was due to improvements in tracks, shoes, pacing, and drugs.
As for cycling, I believe EPO is used in conjunction with other PED' s.
Your original assessment of the mile record progression is faulty, by the way. You assume if a progression is linear or close to it, then PED's have no effect. How is that? If the mile record fell at a constant rate of 1 sec per year, wouldn't artificial means be necessary at some point?
Deanouk wrote:
And people like you also ignore that there was out of competition testing in several European countries (including the UK) from the early 80’s .
No, I do not ignore that. But I do know how rudimentary and rare those tests (that didn't exist in 1981) were by today's standards, and that even today the vast majority of dopers don't get caught.
Speaking of history: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doping_at_the_Olympic_Games#1980_Moscow
Though no athletes were caught doping at the 1980 Summer Olympics, it has been revealed that athletes had begun using testosterone and other drugs for which tests had not been yet developed. A 1989 report by a committee of the Australian Senate claimed that "there is hardly a medal winner at the Moscow Games, certainly not a gold medal winner...who is not on one sort of drug or another: usually several kinds. The Moscow Games might well have been called the Chemists' Games"
rekrunner wrote:
casual obsever wrote:
Yes, people like to forget how dirty the 80s were on both sides of the iron curtain. Legal blood transfusions pepped up with roids without ooc testing for a large part, a very powerful combo.
In the evolution of the 1500m worldwide, the most significant gains occurred in the 1970s, where depths of quality improved by 4 seconds from 3:36 to 3:32. By the mid-1980s this improved by nearly another 2 seconds to around 3:30 -- times often achieved today with stricter doping controls.
Over the next few decades, about two dozen Africans have run faster than Cram and Coe, but only two non-Africans.
Someone has to be the best. There are at least 4 non African athletes I can think of who have run faster or similar times to Coe and Cram: - Baala, Cacho, Willis, Webb, Jacob.
There has been a huge shift in the fortunes and popularity of track in Europe and the US since 1985. It has seen itself been reduced to a fringe sport in these areas, as the popularity of other sports, in particular Football, has been on the ascendancy and diverted a lot of talented kids away from athletics.
There have also been huge shifts in the socio- economic landscape in these countries: introduction of internet, rising levels of obesity, reduced teaching of sport, alternative ways of making a lot more money than training everyday.
The fact that few non Africans have significantly eclipsed the times of Coe and Cram since the 80’s does not prove any drug use, but rather suggests that there has been a huge shifts in various aspects of society. Let’s not forget the likes of Walker, Scott, Gonzales, Cruz, we’re producing similar tunes in the 80’s too. It was a golden time in the popularity of the sport around the world .