for the record, since 1970, here are the 30%+ declines
08
02
87
74
70
and 1987 gets an asterisk because 1987 was an up year despite the crash. By the Dow anyway.
So a 30%+ fall is somewhat rare but it does happen so it has to be one of your factors.
relatedly, apparently there have been only two back to back declines since WW2. 1973-74 and 2001-2002. It is very hard to keep the market down 2 years in a row.
And right now we are down for 2015.
POTO,
I don't want to speak for agip or coach d, but certainly they believe we are still in a rising market more similar to the 1990s. A large number of Wall Street analyst feel the market is fairly valued and will mark- up the traditional 10% return for 2016.
Igy
K5 detector wrote:
It aint over wrote:You really think we are not going to go sub 13,000 on the Dow? I will be very surprised if we don't.
Prepare to be surprised. But given that you've waited this long, I guess you're used to it.
When the sub 13,000 arrives, I will show you how to act with some class.
No bubble in Silcon Vallet real estate: http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/san-francisco-janet-no-bubble-there-just-a-500month-crawl-space-rental/
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
POTO,
I don't want to speak for agip or coach d, but certainly they believe we are still in a rising market more similar to the 1990s. A large number of Wall Street analyst feel the market is fairly valued and will mark- up the traditional 10% return for 2016.
Igy
So you don't want to speak for them, but you're willing to tell us what they "certainly believe". Huh?
Also, "still in a rising market" is not the same as "a period of ever rising markets."
Which part of that did you find obnoxious. Seriously.
POTO,
Your post comes off as persnickety. At least to me. Perhaps our differences in age.
Igy
My post was honest criticism. If you can't take the heat....
agip wrote:
for the record, since 1970, here are the 30%+ declines
08
02
87
74
70
and 1987 gets an asterisk because 1987 was an up year despite the crash. By the Dow anyway.
So a 30%+ fall is somewhat rare but it does happen so it has to be one of your factors.
relatedly, apparently there have been only two back to back declines since WW2. 1973-74 and 2001-2002. It is very hard to keep the market down 2 years in a row.
And right now we are down for 2015.
I suppose the corollary here is this:
If you think we are in for a 30% decline, you have to believe that there is some bubble out there worse than
08: global financial meltdown
01-02 - aftermath of biggest stock market bubble of at least 100 years
87: Largest one day stock market collapse of our lifetimes
74: oil embargo
70: I dunno - Vietnam, guns, butter, country tearing itself apart
So what do we have now that compares to the epochal events that caused 02 and 08? I sure don't see it. Certainly none of the euphoria that goes along with every stock market bubble.
Probably all you have is low interest rates and a giant balance sheet at the Fed. I suppose the Fed is the big worry, but really - as big as the mortgage meltdown or the biggest stock market bubble in 100 plus years?
I just don't see it, Igy. Being bearish is fine, but calling for catastrophic falls is probably a fool's errand.
agip,
We can debate whether there is market froth. We have discussed stock valuations and we are on opposing sides on that issue. On Federal Reserve and global central bank policy you see it as benign and I see it as a cancer. To ignore clear signs of market froth is not foolish, but what should be expected of an experienced advisor.
Igy
agip,
Speaking of euphoria, I do see distortions that could be descrbed as collective thinking: FANG, TINA, high yield, fracking, MLPs, Silcon Valley real estate, multi-family housing, autos, margin debt, stock buybacks, non-GAAP accounting, and central banks infalliability. The CNBC shows of Mad Money, Fast Money, and Options Action feed the beast of trading rather than what should be financial planning. But that is not good for the advertising sponsors. A casino mentality has dominated the market since the fall of 2011. It will end badly.
Igy
Probably all you have is low interest rates and a giant balance sheet at the Fed. I suppose the Fed is the big worry, but really - as big as the mortgage meltdown or the biggest stock market bubble in 100 plus years?
I just don't see it, Igy. Being bearish is fine, but calling for catastrophic falls is probably a fool's errand.
I guess agip must have seen the 2000-02 and 2008-09 meltdowns coming and invested appropriately.
Thankfully he does not see one now so we have no worries.
This guy is really something.
Dummier wrote:
Probably all you have is low interest rates and a giant balance sheet at the Fed. I suppose the Fed is the big worry, but really - as big as the mortgage meltdown or the biggest stock market bubble in 100 plus years?
I just don't see it, Igy. Being bearish is fine, but calling for catastrophic falls is probably a fool's errand.
I guess agip must have seen the 2000-02 and 2008-09 meltdowns coming and invested appropriately.
Thankfully he does not see one now so we have no worries.
This guy is really something.
So is that guy who obsesses over agip, following his every word like a stalker. What was his name again? Oh yeah, K5.
Hi K5!
Sew Is wrote:
[quote]Dummier wrote:
Probably all you have is low interest rates and a giant balance sheet at the Fed. I suppose the Fed is the big worry, but really - as big as the mortgage meltdown or the biggest stock market bubble in 100 plus years?
I just don't see it, Igy. Being bearish is fine, but calling for catastrophic falls is probably a fool's errand.
I guess agip must have seen the 2000-02 and 2008-09 meltdowns coming and invested appropriately.
Thankfully he does not see one now so we have no worries.
This guy is really something.
So is that guy who obsesses over agip, following his every word like a stalker. What was his name again? Oh yeah, K5.
Projection my friend
Truth Not Hasbara wrote:
Sew Is wrote:[quote]Dummier wrote:
Probably all you have is low interest rates and a giant balance sheet at the Fed. I suppose the Fed is the big worry, but really - as big as the mortgage meltdown or the biggest stock market bubble in 100 plus years?
I just don't see it, Igy. Being bearish is fine, but calling for catastrophic falls is probably a fool's errand.
I guess agip must have seen the 2000-02 and 2008-09 meltdowns coming and invested appropriately.
Thankfully he does not see one now so we have no worries.
This guy is really something.
So is that guy who obsesses over agip, following his every word like a stalker. What was his name again? Oh yeah, K5.
Projection my friend
Hi K5!
What's the matter agip/Detector.
Can't tell us if you knew the 2000-02 and 2008-089 meltdowns were coming and so have to admit that your assertion there isn't one coming soon is as worthless as every other thing you post? But don't want to?
Too embarrassed to discuss the topic?
Back to your usual one trick pony stuff?
Must suck to be so limited.
Truth Not Hasbara wrote:
What's the matter agip/Detector.
Can't tell us if you knew the 2000-02 and 2008-089 meltdowns were coming and so have to admit that your assertion there isn't one coming soon is as worthless as every other thing you post? But don't want to?
Too embarrassed to discuss the topic?
Back to your usual one trick pony stuff?
Must suck to be so limited.
You really should get professional help. I say that sincerely as someone who deeply cares about your well being.
Please.
Tell us how you saw the 2000-02 and 2008-09 meltdowns coming and so avoided problems. And how you know no such meltdown is now on the horizon.
We all need to know the details of your brilliance.
Don't get all defensive and passive/aggressive on us.
Truth Not Hasbara wrote:
Please.
Tell us how you saw the 2000-02 and 2008-09 meltdowns coming and so avoided problems. And how you know no such meltdown is now on the horizon.
We all need to know the details of your brilliance.
Don't get all defensive and passive/aggressive on us.
Best of luck.