way too early 2025 XC CIF HS predictions

Well my boy picks did well at Clovis. My girl picks not so much.

Mt View still missing one of their top three. Not sure if he'll run this fall. Hope he does.

Yeah but they're racing at Woodward next Friday against Vacaville and Matilda Torres so we'll get to see what they can do. I expect big things based on how they've been racing the past few weeks.

Wow.... Woodbridge's Clovis performance was absolutely phenomenal, and I predict that based on this, they should be favorites to win state, and possibly even nxn. Here's my logic:

-aidan Antonio is the best individual in the state of California. Yes, he got beat by 4 other Californians today, but he was the #1 Californian at their own invitational(which is cool as frick btw Niwot should've been there), but I believe that he had actually spontaneously contracted typhoid fever as he crossed the 1 mile mark, rapidly wearing him down for the rest of the race. He still managed a good sub 15 performance, though. Without typhoid fever, he will undoubtedly be unstoppable.

-Thomas yohn might be the comeback GOAT. In middle school club xc, yohn was consistently destroying Antonio, but his first two years of high school running were riddled with injury and sickness that prevented him from performing his best. Despite this, he has been on an immense upwards trajectory since last xc season, improving to a decent 9:40 3200m as a sophomore, into a 14:46 3 mile as a junior, and most recently an astounding 15:19 5k at Woodward Park. I took AP statistics in high school(5 on the exam btw), so I applied my knowledge to create an exponential regression in order to predict yohn 's next speed ratings. My regression shows that yohn will have a speed rating of 247 at state, which reflects a 12:49 5k at Woodward Park, which will give Antonio a run for his money.

-woodbridge high School has learned from Iowa State University and has begun their own kenyan importation program, starting with inban and iniyan kathiravan. Despite not running as fast as their other teammates, these two will surely unlock their kenyan DNA in the near future to dominate the team race. I shudder to think of the potential of this program in the following decades.

-jesuit doesn't deserve to win state. They simply do not, and Woodbridge high school will absolutely prevent them from doing so.... ...in the courtroom. The team has hoarded immense wealth from the explosion in popularity of the Woodbridge invitational, and they are busy hiring the greatest lawyers that will somehow construe a case against dirty, recruiting private schools poisoning the clean spirit of Californian sports. Jesuit v. Woodbridge will be taken to the supreme Court, where "donations" to the judges from Woodbridge high school will strategically persuade them to deny Jesuit from winning the state championships.

I hope you all read this entire prophecy and determine that now is the time to mentally invest in Woodbridge's supremacy in cross country, because otherwise, you are doomed for defeat.

Goldberg returning would lowk change the game ngl

It seems like the #2 California team is changing every time this year.

Redondo Union didn’t do as well as expected.

But yeah, for now Woodbridge is #2. They returned everyone from last year and got a really good transfer who scored for them. It also helps them that they are in the same division as Jesuit, so they have a lot of fast runners to be pushed by.

I definitely think Woodbridge got a good shot. Their top 5 seems very solid. With their speedy transfer and elite competition at the state meet with Jesuit, I can see them being #2 in Cali. The real question is if the d1 boys will find a response with Mira Costa, Beckman, and San Clemente all still in the equation.

Braelyn Combe has been running well so far, and can’t forget about Aelo Curtis, who pulled a HUGE upset at Clovis

The sit and kick strategy won’t work around this time. I will say, he’s at the very least going to break his section record along with Bay. But I think Lott should take a page out of Zavaleta’s book and just go along with the ride

Who’s got a speed rating list of everyone’s best speed rating in the state so I can make a mid-season top 10 list for each division?

I don't need speed ratings, and I can just do it for you. Plus the guy who does speed ratings, hasn't been speed rating much California courses.

1) Maximo Zavalleta - 14:44 woodward / 14:07 woodbridge

2) Olly O'Connor - 14:47 woodward / 14:07 woodbridge

3) Connor Lott - 14:55 woodward / 14:34 portland

4) Blake Bay - 14:51 woodward / 14:06 woodbridge

5) Aidan Antonio - 14:56 woodward / 14:06 woodbridge

6) Elias Thronson - 14:54 woodward

7) Jaxon Northuctt - 14:12 woodbridge

8) Yohan Anderson - 14:59 woodward / 14:12 woodbridge

9) Mason Ngyuen - 15:00 woodward / 14:12 woodbridge

10) Mario Montonya - 14:57 woodward / 14:23 woodbridge

11) Andres Lomeli - 14:59 woodward / 14:22 woodbridge

Somewhat under the radar was West Torrance, who won the Small Schools Championship. In the Clovis all-race super merge, they were 9th overall (8th in Cal), surprisingly ahead of teams like Mountain View, Matilda Torres, Redondo, and Clovis North. Similar to the Woodbridge Invite, were they also won the Rated Division race and was 15th Cal team in that super merge. Since they haven't been in the 'big races', they have been easy to miss.

15:00 dropped one more point this year to 187SR. Just a couple years ago it was usually worth a 190. So now a 190SR would be 14:51.0. I agree with that adjustment. I think it might drop another point at the state meet if the weather is good.

I just wanna make a top 10 list for every division, they’re pretty fun ngl

Like who is gonna be all state for each division kinda vibe

Like that’s just too 10 of all Cali but I wanna make a top 10 list for each division. And ik not everyone races Clovis or Woodbridge but there are still some solid speed ratings from races that aren’t from any of those two. Like I wanna know who’ll be podiuming in every division (hypothetically speaking just going by speed ratings)

I’ll just wait till Roughrider to create one