D:
I'm not a big believer on something as simple as party holding the white house meaning anything. strikes me as data mining. You could probably find that when a left handed president is in office markets rise.
anyway
here's another thing to worry about - the yield curve is flattening quickly - if it inverts that is a very very good leading indicator of a recession.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/T10Y2Y
It's not inverted now, but it wouldn't take much to get there.
the bear case:
Stocks are at above average valuations by some measures
the yield curve is flattening
by some measures earnings are falling
we're at almost peak employment
companies are at peak margins
gawd knows what is happening in the emerging markets - nothing good.
dollar up strongly
very weak productivity gains
the bull case
Most economic indicators are positive
low interest rates
low and stable inflation
low energy and commodity prices
Stocks pretty much at average valuations for the last 25 years
Clear lack of euphoria in the stock market
Frankly I'm starting to get worried
actually maybe I'll hold off on worrying about an inverted yield curve - if you stretch out the graph it shows we are now in the middle of the historical range - nothing extraordinary. But the spread is shrinking.
Worried about what? Stability?
Have you not been paying attention? The sky is FALLING!!!!!
Federal Reserve policy has been at an accomodative extreme for seven years, yet the GDP has averaged a measley 2% annually. Automobile sales are at record levels but with higher percentages of leases and subprime loans. Housing has recovered if you include multi-family units, but massive amounts of bad loans and mortgage bond loses remain on the books of banks and the Federal Government. Job creation in this cycle has been highlighted by bartenders, barristas, servers, and hotel workers. The Federal Reserve balance sheet has balooned from $900 billion in 2008 to $4.4 trillion today. Since March 9, 2009 the market has tripled from its 666 low.
Unbelieveably, many investors are unable to make the connection of low interest rates to market speculation. Yet it is very easy to understand, you borrow low and speculate in the most liquid market in the universe. The Fed has your back.
It is hard to fathom that one cannot see the risk or imagine that it could all end very badly. Most of the central bank policies are theories and unlike anything in financial history.
Would you lend anyone money for ten years at 2%? How about lending money for 30 years at 4%? Yet many of you think one can continue to earn 10% equity returns with little risk.
Good luck, for your belief system is already being challenged.
Igy
Chicken Little wrote:
Have you not been paying attention? The sky is FALLING!!!!!
Ummm..the sky already fell.
Try to keep up.
Junk bond fund closed to redemptions, another leg lower in oil leading market move lower. Many continue to ignore clear economic weakness.
Igy
They're called "junk" for a reason.
POTO,
The more important "point" is that junk bonds tend to signal economic and market direction.
Igy
agip wrote:
For the record, since the thread was started the Vanguard Total US stock market index fund is up 29.8% including dividends. Ticker VTI.
over the 2.28 year lifespan of the thread, that's 12.07% per year, annualized.
For the factual record, the s+p 500 closed at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13 (date thread began) and is presently 2,203.02. An increase of 18.33%. Which is less than 20%, as I noted.
If this bad day continues, will panic build up over the week-end and lead to a real meltdown on Monday?
Or is this just the usual ups and downs?
Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
They're called "junk" for a reason.
Yes, it is in order to add more heat than light to any discussion of them. The nomenclature is heartily embraced by the stupid.
Truth not hasbara wrote:
agip wrote:For the record, since the thread was started the Vanguard Total US stock market index fund is up 29.8% including dividends. Ticker VTI.
over the 2.28 year lifespan of the thread, that's 12.07% per year, annualized.
For the factual record, the s+p 500 closed at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13 (date thread began) and is presently 2,203.02. An increase of 18.33%. Which is less than 20%, as I noted.
oy
you want to check those dates and numbers again, champ? Reexamine your assumptions.
but anyway, there are many ways to measure the stock market. I use the total stock market because it is the most comprehensive and measurable.
The starter of the thread used the dow, which is a poor measurement and just big caps.
Now you say the SP500 - again, just big caps
And you aren't including dividends, which is a choice (but a poor choice)
agip wrote:
Truth not hasbara wrote:For the factual record, the s+p 500 closed at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13 (date thread began) and is presently 2,203.02. An increase of 18.33%. Which is less than 20%, as I noted.
you want to check those dates and numbers again, champ? Reexamine your assumptions.
Assumptions? Huh? I looked up the closing value of the s+p on the date the thread began and then looked at what it is today. Then did the simple math. What assumptions do you think were involved?
but anyway, there are many ways to measure the stock market. I use the total stock market because it is the most comprehensive and measurable.
Huh?
And you aren't including dividends, which is a choice (but a poor choice)
Why would I. I am not including the interest earned on the CDs and Bonds I hold
Truth Not H wrote:
agip wrote:you want to check those dates and numbers again, champ? Reexamine your assumptions.
Assumptions? Huh? I looked up the closing value of the s+p on the date the thread began and then looked at what it is today. Then did the simple math. What assumptions do you think were involved?
but anyway, there are many ways to measure the stock market. I use the total stock market because it is the most comprehensive and measurable.
Huh?
And you aren't including dividends, which is a choice (but a poor choice)
Why would I. I am not including the interest earned on the CDs and Bonds I hold
This will be the last commo I have with you on the subject, because you are loathsome and I feel dirty just talking to you. Assuming you are K5. Apologies if you are not.
1. You didn't check and correct your numbers.
2. Sure, count returns and interest from bonds. Count interest on CDs. Count everything.
You would have had 29.8% cumulative from US stocks, including dividends. So what did you get from CDs and bonds?
My guess is around 7% from bonds and 2% from CDs. If you had invested really well and matched the vanguard total bond market index.
agip wrote:
Truth Not H wrote:[quote]agip wrote:
[quote]Truth not hasbara wrote:
[quote]agip wrote:
For the record, since the thread was started the Vanguard Total US stock market index fund is up 29.8% including dividends. Ticker VTI.
over the 2.28 year lifespan of the thread, that's 12.07% per year, annualized.
For the factual record, the s+p 500 closed at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13 (date thread began) and is presently 2,203.02. An increase of 18.33%. Which is less than 20%, as I noted.
you want to check those dates and numbers again, champ? Reexamine your assumptions.
Assumptions? Huh? I looked up the closing value of the s+p on the date the thread began and then looked at what it is today. Then did the simple math. What assumptions do you think were involved?
but anyway, there are many ways to measure the stock market. I use the total stock market because it is the most comprehensive and measurable.
Huh?
This will be the last commo I have with you on the subject, because you are loathsome and I feel dirty just talking to you. Assuming you are K5. Apologies if you are not.
1. You didn't check and correct your numbers.
Sure I did. And anyone with google can look up the closing price of the s+p 500 the night before I first posted on this thread and look up the current price. And can see the total return for the period is less than 19%. Which is less than 20% as I claimed. I can help you with the arithmetic if you want? I am curious why you would make such a dishonest statement given that anyone reading this can easily confirm my numbers and my math. Why would you do this?
As far as your reprehensible -- but typical -- personal attack I will, as always, leave you in the gutter by yourself.
K5, he clearly wrote "including dividends". You are being disingenuous by ignoring that. But then you are the lowest of the lows. Wherever agip resides, I'm sure it is at least several levels above your cesspool.
The return of the SP500 cash (SPX) since 8/27/2013 is presently 23.7%, not counting reinvested dividends. If you had sold a single full SP500 futures contract short on that day, you would have lost $96,112 thus far.
Would you rather have been long....or short?