Down goes the Dow

At the risk of being accused of piling on, I should point out that it's more about revenues than earnings and profit margins.

[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:

POTO,

Not a stretch at all. Bill Gross, David Tepper, Stan Druckenmiller, John Hussman, Robert Shiller, Sam Zell, Carl Icahn, all hold similar views.

Do any Goyim have any thoughts on this? Or just these con men?

David Tepper: On October 15, two weeks after the end of the third quarter, David Tepper appeared on CNBC for his semi-annual stock pumpfest, most memorable for his suggestion that a 20x P/E multiple on the S&P was perfectly acceptable. Which would suggest Tepper was very bullish on risk. Which would suggest buying more stocks, not selling. Yet selling is precisely what he did between June 30 and September 30 according to his just released 13F.

Carl Icahn: Well, we should all know this guy was jailed in the 80s for his financial crimes (yes, these folks actually used to go to jail for their crimes). He is currently under investigation for insider trading (no worries -- he is in the club that is currently above the law).

Sam Zell: Less than a year after Mr. Zell bought the Tribune, it tipped into bankruptcy, listing $7.6 billion in assets against a debt of $13 billion, making it the largest bankruptcy in the history of the American media industry. More than 4,200 people have lost jobs since the purchase, while resources for the Tribune newspapers and television stations have been slashed.

Look, everybody! K5 is back!

Hey, K5, fill us in on how much you've lost since you started this thread. You really blew that one, huh?

K5 detector wrote:

Look, everybody! K5 is back!

Hey, K5, fill us in on how much you've lost since you started this thread. You really blew that one, huh?

Well, if it ain't the defender of the American Fifth Column.

Never any discussion of the facts. Just the same old tired drivel. Must suck to be so limited.

You want facts? Start with telling us how much $ you've lost since you started this thread. Then we can factually discuss your ignorance.

coach d wrote:

...

Please explain why I would want to listen to any of these people about the stock market.

Once again (and yes I am shouting):

YOU CANNOT PREDICT THE MARKET IN ADVANCE!!!!!

No? Is there some other way to predict the market?

K5 detector wrote:

You want facts? Start with telling us how much $ you've lost since you started this thread. Then we can factually discuss your ignorance.

So you believe that we should listen to convicted Jewish conmen but nobody else? Why?

Since I started this thread, my liquid assets have increased by $600k and the value of my non liquid other assets have also increased -- although not so easily measured (primarily two business and one house).

How much did you lose by not betting on the Pats in the 2015 Super Bowl? That question makes as much sense as yours about how much I "lost" by bailing out of equities

Big Dog,

Are you aware that S&P 500 revenue is down $287 billion year over year? Should I assume you are supporting my view?

Igy

Fool,

While you are throwing stones add Ben Bernanke to your list:

https://mises.org/library/ben-bernanke-was-incredibly-uncannily-wrong

Igy

K5 do you actually support a football team owned by a jew?

Truth Not Hasbara wrote:

...Since I started this thread, my liquid assets have increased by $600k and the value of my non liquid other assets have also increased -- although not so easily measured (primarily two business and one house)...

You are so full of shit.

coach d,

Robert Shiller has an interesting piece published yesterday. Most of what has been discussed recently here is examined in the article. I believe many are falling into the trap outlined in the last two paragraphs of the article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/upshot/for-any-fed-action-on-interest-rates-an-unforeseeable-reaction.html?smid=tw-share&_r=1

Good luck with your trades.

Igy

"Which would suggest buying more stocks, not selling. Yet selling is precisely what he did between June 30 and September 30 according to his just released 13F."

Wait, somebody selling something was encouraging others to buy it?

NO WAY!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Big Dog,

Are you aware that S&P 500 revenue is down $287 billion year over year? Should I assume you are supporting my view?

Igy

You know what they say about people who assume. :-)

Instead try recalculating that figure without the energy sector.

Weldon Johhson S U C K S

Big Dog,

Weak argument. The same people that were cheering the marvels of fracking some how are saying "ex-energy it is" this or that. Sorry, energy is a part of the S&P just like technology is. You can't have it both ways. Furthermore, the problems in the energy sector are being reflected in deteriorating retail numbers.

Igy

9/28/2015

Iggy:

“Anyway, it looks like we are looking for a re-test of the August low. I would say the we will probe the 1820 low from 10/15/2014. From there if we go below 1800 who knows?”

Reality:

9/28/2015 marked the absolute low point for the S&P 500 at 1881. Since then it has risen about 11%.

Conclusion:

It would have been impossible to make a worse call than Iggy did.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////

9/26/2015

Iggy:

“It is shocking to me that most people who should be informed about the market are clueless to where we are headed. One can clearly see that the trend is in place and it is down. I don't think that even Janet can save us now. In my view Dow 13,000 is an easy marker.”

Reality:

On Friday, 9/25 the Dow stood at around 16,300. On Monday, 9/28 it dropped to around 16,000. That one day drop was about all the dropping that it did. It has since risen about 11%

Nice call, Iggy. You must have been excited that the market went in your direction for all of one day!

////////////////////////////////////////

9/28/2015

Iggy:

“Now, risk has entered the psyche of investors, where it has been absent for sometime. The rally is now sold and will continue to be sold in my opinion. Valuation becomes important in giving one the sense of how far this can go. Quite a bit lower in my view. Enough to win my bet with POTO.”

Question:

Quite a bit lower than the absolute lowest that it got?

//////////////////////////////////////////////

9/26/2015

Iggy:

“Here is how we get to Dow 13,000. Distribution is taking place, where strong hands (institutions) are selling to weak hands (individuals). In the next phase buyer volume dries up as potential sellers wait for better prices that never come. Discouraged traders and novice investors cash in their chips at the bottom.

Comment:

This last part is great – “novice investors cash in their chips at the bottom” Why would they do that? Because they think it is going a lot lower? Sound like anyone we know?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Big Dog,

Weak argument. The same people that were cheering the marvels of fracking some how are saying "ex-energy it is" this or that. Sorry, energy is a part of the S&P just like technology is. You can't have it both ways. Furthermore, the problems in the energy sector are being reflected in deteriorating retail numbers.

Igy

we can try to have a sophisticated understanding of the numbers.

We can certainly agree that sp500 earnings are down

BUT

We cannon extrapolate from that fact that the economy is in recession or even slowing down. Because SP500 earnings WOULD BE UP if the price of oil hadn't crashed by 50%. And the price of oil falling 50% in this case is hardly recessionary. The falling price of oil in this case is not indicative of economic weakness.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Big Dog,

Weak argument. The same people that were cheering the marvels of fracking some how are saying "ex-energy it is" this or that. Sorry, energy is a part of the S&P just like technology is. You can't have it both ways. Furthermore, the problems in the energy sector are being reflected in deteriorating retail numbers.

Igy

That has nothing to do with the argument. To refresh your memory, you pointed out that earnings and profit margins are falling. I countered with the notion that revenues are more important. That's the argument, my friend.

You brought the S&P into this, not me.