First, -20 Is a very bad number, especially with the relatively calcified political landscape we currently inhabit
Second, don’t know about the next presidential election, but we are getting very close to the point of no return in the Strait of Hormuz. If it isn’t opened by the beginning of June, I would expect quite dramatic inflation, especially with regard to food, through November. That economic situation dramatically affects elections. The opposition party doesn’t need to have a dramatic message to make major gains in such situations, even with the extreme gerrymandering we now see.
With that said, I recognize that the kind of candidate that I prefer; Enlightenment -based, competent, and cautious, does not really appeal to either side. In short, I expect a continuing trend toward tribal, us-versus-them, conspiracy-minded governance, as opposed to quiet competence, with occasional improvement only when tribal governors shoot themselves in the foot.