I think Trump is doing a deal with Putin to exchange Ukraine for Israel and Iran. Trump has lined his foreign policy and defense department with Iran hawks who want to got to war with Iran in order to give Netanyahu cover to expel the Palestinians and annex all of Gaza and the West Bank to bring back the ancient borders of Judea and Samaria. This deal will include fracturing NATO so that Putin can continue his westward expansion to take Georgia and Moldova and then eventually take back Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Putin will also force Romania and Poland to disarm or face invasion. In return, Putin will throw Iran under the bus and let Trump take Gaza and Israel take the West Bank. Iran is the only country in the Middle East that would come to the defense of the Palestinians. But Putin does not need Iran if the war in Ukraine is halted. And Kremlin insiders have always been Islamaphobes and hated having to support Iran for fear of a double cross with Iran backing Muslim rebels in Chechnya and Dagestan.
It will now be up to Europe and Ukraine to stand up to Trump's desire to let Putin ravage Eastern Europe in exchange for handing over Iran. Trump will cut Ukraine's funding if they do not take a deal. It will then be up to the EU to pick up the slack. The EU is currently not in a position to do that politically. But the prospect of Putin's armies knocking on Europe's eastern door could change attitudes very quickly across Europe.
The only hope at this point is if Ukraine and Europe can resist the Trump peace process long enough that the Russian economy finally implodes and Putin is overthrown. If Trump follows through with his trade war and slashing the US government, the resulting inflation and slowing growth in the US (government employees do spend their money and are an important component of the economy) could trigger a larger world wide economic slowdown. This could crash energy prices, which would be the end of the Russian economy.