Sunday_Shakeout wrote:
Race is going to best faster than usual if the weather stays this way.
I predict German's course record finally is broken at this meet. One of the Crater runners or Noonan will break it.
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WaitForMoreData wrote:
Jesuit didn't beat anyone significant, but at least they had a strong 5 and beat everyone they should. It is really the first strong performance by one of the top Cal teams this year, and it is good to finally see one. Millikan had basically their pre-season projected squad, but they lost to some teams I was hoping they would beat. Hopefully they can keep improving. Great Oak at Firman ran OK, but without Westin Brown their lack of depth makes them a team outside the national top 30. The 2 NXN spots are so wide open right now that even Brown in pretty good form still puts them in the mix. JSerra in 13th looks bad, but if Morales could be up near Friedl (they both were speedrated at 172 last year, and both had good track seasons) they would be so much better. If that had happened today they would be about 70 points better, which is a lower score than Great Oak. Maybe whatever injury he had at the end of track season is still an issue.
Bellarmine looked good and very deep today without their #1. Another team I would like to see how they stack up at Clovis.
It looks like there are several good 9th graders this year, better than the last couple of years. But being good at 2 miles, or flat 3 miles, is still different than holding up at Woodward Park, so that's another thing Clovis should tell us.
A really good 1600m time for a 9th grader in Oct, 4:23.99 by Caden Ehrhorn of CampolindoI was going to wait until after Clovis to comment further on the boys 9th grade class,
since that meet will give a better measure. But consider this a watch list. This is most likely
is not a complete list, and I know of 12 more than have run at least a 150SR.Caden Ehrhorn Campolindo
Elias Thronson Davis
Bryson Caganap Ayala (168 Speed rating at Woodbridge)
Gavin De La Fuente Chino Hills (167 at Woodbridge)
Oliver Olbekson Menlo (166 at Woodbridge)
Jacob Leath Clovis North (164 at Nike Portland)
Landon Scott Chaminade (161 at Woodbridge)
Jack Paz Ayala (159 at Woodbridge)
Elijah Medina Redlands East Valley (158 at Woodbridge)
Mario Montoya Redondo Union (157 at Woodbridge)
Antonio Santiago Matilda Torres (156 at Woodbridge)
Dylan Nash Poway (SD) (156 at CCA Raves)
Landon Wilson Sonora (155 at Kim Duyst)
Enzo Martinez-Vaughan West Campus (155 at Kim Duyst)
Joey Yamamoto Woodbridge(155 at Nike Portland)
Connor Smith Vacaville (155 at Woodbridge)80 -
WaitForMoreData wrote:
Sunday_Shakeout wrote:
Race is going to best faster than usual if the weather stays this way.
I predict German's course record finally is broken at this meet. One of the Crater runners or Noonan will break it.
If the weather holds up I could actually see it. Noonan won't come close but Tostensen might - mostly dependent on how familiar he is with the course. I know Woodbridge is fast but 13:30 for 3 miles is nuts - potentially sub 14 mins for 5k on a track. Someone in that kind of shape could potentially come close to 14:24 for sure.
Then again, at risk of beating a dead horse, better runners have tried.
Leo Young - 3:39/8:39/16th at World XC - 14:26
Colin Sahlman - 3:56/8:33 - 14:27
Lex Young - 4:01y/7:57/8:35/13:43(!) - 14:28
Nico Young - 7:56/8:40/13:50 - 14:29
Leo Daschbach - 3:59 - 14:31
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.90 -
WaitForMoreData wrote:
WaitForMoreData wrote:
Jesuit didn't beat anyone significant, but at least they had a strong 5 and beat everyone they should. It is really the first strong performance by one of the top Cal teams this year, and it is good to finally see one. Millikan had basically their pre-season projected squad, but they lost to some teams I was hoping they would beat. Hopefully they can keep improving. Great Oak at Firman ran OK, but without Westin Brown their lack of depth makes them a team outside the national top 30. The 2 NXN spots are so wide open right now that even Brown in pretty good form still puts them in the mix. JSerra in 13th looks bad, but if Morales could be up near Friedl (they both were speedrated at 172 last year, and both had good track seasons) they would be so much better. If that had happened today they would be about 70 points better, which is a lower score than Great Oak. Maybe whatever injury he had at the end of track season is still an issue.
Bellarmine looked good and very deep today without their #1. Another team I would like to see how they stack up at Clovis.
It looks like there are several good 9th graders this year, better than the last couple of years. But being good at 2 miles, or flat 3 miles, is still different than holding up at Woodward Park, so that's another thing Clovis should tell us.
A really good 1600m time for a 9th grader in Oct, 4:23.99 by Caden Ehrhorn of CampolindoI was going to wait until after Clovis to comment further on the boys 9th grade class,
since that meet will give a better measure. But consider this a watch list. This is most likely
is not a complete list, and I know of 12 more than have run at least a 150SR.Caden Ehrhorn Campolindo
Elias Thronson Davis
Bryson Caganap Ayala (168 Speed rating at Woodbridge)
Gavin De La Fuente Chino Hills (167 at Woodbridge)
Oliver Olbekson Menlo (166 at Woodbridge)
Jacob Leath Clovis North (164 at Nike Portland)
Landon Scott Chaminade (161 at Woodbridge)
Jack Paz Ayala (159 at Woodbridge)
Elijah Medina Redlands East Valley (158 at Woodbridge)
Mario Montoya Redondo Union (157 at Woodbridge)
Antonio Santiago Matilda Torres (156 at Woodbridge)
Dylan Nash Poway (SD) (156 at CCA Raves)
Landon Wilson Sonora (155 at Kim Duyst)
Enzo Martinez-Vaughan West Campus (155 at Kim Duyst)
Joey Yamamoto Woodbridge(155 at Nike Portland)
Connor Smith Vacaville (155 at Woodbridge)Palisades has a good 9th grade class this year. However, 2 years ago they had one of the best 9th grade classes in the state, but that didn’t really go anywhere
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mictlantecuhtli wrote:
WaitForMoreData wrote:
I predict German's course record finally is broken at this meet. One of the Crater runners or Noonan will break it.
If the weather holds up I could actually see it. Noonan won't come close but Tostensen might - mostly dependent on how familiar he is with the course. I know Woodbridge is fast but 13:30 for 3 miles is nuts - potentially sub 14 mins for 5k on a track. Someone in that kind of shape could potentially come close to 14:24 for sure.
Then again, at risk of beating a dead horse, better runners have tried.
Leo Young - 3:39/8:39/16th at World XC - 14:26
Colin Sahlman - 3:56/8:33 - 14:27
Lex Young - 4:01y/7:57/8:35/13:43(!) - 14:28
Nico Young - 7:56/8:40/13:50 - 14:29
Leo Daschbach - 3:59 - 14:31
The question is whether or not Tostenson can handle a course like Woodward Park. He ran 13:30 for 3 mile, I see no reason why he won't break Fernandez record, considering conditions are looking good. But keep in mind: 1) Woodbridge tends to bring out your best performance (everyone is screaming at you, it's a really big race similar to arcadia). 2) Clovis doesn't always do that. Woodward Park also has hills... That can hurt.
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I know it has been said before but it really goes to show you how impressive his 14:24 was in 2008 if it has survived this long.
130 -
80plake wrote:
Appears that NP's #2 and #4 didn't run
Yep, and they are young this year too unlike the last 2 years. Not many seniors on the team. They also have a freshman who dominated the JV race and ran faster than some of their varsity guys
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WaitForMoreData wrote:
WaitForMoreData wrote:
Jesuit didn't beat anyone significant, but at least they had a strong 5 and beat everyone they should. It is really the first strong performance by one of the top Cal teams this year, and it is good to finally see one. Millikan had basically their pre-season projected squad, but they lost to some teams I was hoping they would beat. Hopefully they can keep improving. Great Oak at Firman ran OK, but without Westin Brown their lack of depth makes them a team outside the national top 30. The 2 NXN spots are so wide open right now that even Brown in pretty good form still puts them in the mix. JSerra in 13th looks bad, but if Morales could be up near Friedl (they both were speedrated at 172 last year, and both had good track seasons) they would be so much better. If that had happened today they would be about 70 points better, which is a lower score than Great Oak. Maybe whatever injury he had at the end of track season is still an issue.
Bellarmine looked good and very deep today without their #1. Another team I would like to see how they stack up at Clovis.
It looks like there are several good 9th graders this year, better than the last couple of years. But being good at 2 miles, or flat 3 miles, is still different than holding up at Woodward Park, so that's another thing Clovis should tell us.
A really good 1600m time for a 9th grader in Oct, 4:23.99 by Caden Ehrhorn of CampolindoI was going to wait until after Clovis to comment further on the boys 9th grade class,
since that meet will give a better measure. But consider this a watch list. This is most likely
is not a complete list, and I know of 12 more than have run at least a 150SR.Caden Ehrhorn Campolindo
Elias Thronson Davis
Bryson Caganap Ayala (168 Speed rating at Woodbridge)
Gavin De La Fuente Chino Hills (167 at Woodbridge)
Oliver Olbekson Menlo (166 at Woodbridge)
Jacob Leath Clovis North (164 at Nike Portland)
Landon Scott Chaminade (161 at Woodbridge)
Jack Paz Ayala (159 at Woodbridge)
Elijah Medina Redlands East Valley (158 at Woodbridge)
Mario Montoya Redondo Union (157 at Woodbridge)
Antonio Santiago Matilda Torres (156 at Woodbridge)
Dylan Nash Poway (SD) (156 at CCA Raves)
Landon Wilson Sonora (155 at Kim Duyst)
Enzo Martinez-Vaughan West Campus (155 at Kim Duyst)
Joey Yamamoto Woodbridge(155 at Nike Portland)
Connor Smith Vacaville (155 at Woodbridge)great list. Looks a lot deeper than last year's freshmen with multiple freshmen already running sub 15 this early in the season. We could see multiple important individuals arise from this class, compared to last year's class when there were really only 3 standouts (in my opinion): Matthew Ogilvie (Jesuit), Aidan Antonio (Woodbridge), and Blake Bay (Fresno Christian). So far this season, Ogilvie had a strong performance at Nike Portland, Antonio ran a 14:17 at Woodbridge, and Blake Bay ran a 14:31 at Woodbridge. It seemed like last year a lot of people expected Michael Scarince and Adrian Cantu to be the best freshmen but they seem to have fallen off. Meanwhile, the class of '28 appears more deep and there is a good possibility that a lot of these freshmen can run sub 16 at Clovis/State. Hopefully this means California will make a comeback in 2026/2027 cross country and become deep again.
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mictlantecuhtli wrote:
WaitForMoreData wrote:
I predict German's course record finally is broken at this meet. One of the Crater runners or Noonan will break it.
If the weather holds up I could actually see it. Noonan won't come close but Tostensen might - mostly dependent on how familiar he is with the course. I know Woodbridge is fast but 13:30 for 3 miles is nuts - potentially sub 14 mins for 5k on a track. Someone in that kind of shape could potentially come close to 14:24 for sure.
Then again, at risk of beating a dead horse, better runners have tried.
Leo Young - 3:39/8:39/16th at World XC - 14:26
Colin Sahlman - 3:56/8:33 - 14:27
Lex Young - 4:01y/7:57/8:35/13:43(!) - 14:28
Nico Young - 7:56/8:40/13:50 - 14:29
Leo Daschbach - 3:59 - 14:31
Let's not forget previous Olympians' times whose Woodward park times didn't come close. These guys were pre super shoes, as was German
Meb Kheflezgi
Ryan Hall
Marc Davis
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What super shoes are people wearing at Woodward Park?
41 -
As of 10/4/2024:
Boys top 10 California teams: Using Tullyrunner Methology
National Rank / School Name / Average SR
21 Jesuit (SJ) 173.87
28 Matilda Torres (CS) 172.24
31 Menlo School (CC) 172.07
47 Mira Costa (SS) 170.84
48 ML King (SS) 170.79
64 Buchanan (CS) 169.76
66 Great Oak (SS) 169.66
67 Glendora (SS) 169.51
74 Oaks Christian (SS) 169.24
84 Clovis East (CS) 168.53Notes: At this time, there are currently no boys teams in the top 20. However, our next big race, the Clovis Invitational, is coming up. Hopefully a few teams will be able to improve then.
Girls top 10 California teams: Using Tullyrunner Methology
National Rank / School Name / Average SR
1 Santiago Corona (SS) 132.84
3 Ventura (SS) 131.46
8 Buchanan (CS) 126.45
17 JSerra Catholic (SS) 121.57
27 El Toro (SS) 118.01
31 Tesoro (SS) 117.49
39 Monte Vista (NC) 115.33
44 Claremont (SS) 114.25
49 Del Norte (SD) 113.35
50 Murrieta Valley (SS) 113.18Notes: California girl teams are insane and running well in the early season! The Speed rating of Santiago Corona is so high mostly because of their top two finishers. However, that doesn't take away from a great team. 3 teams in the top 10. Santiago Corona, Ventura and Buchanan look good!
Boys top 10 individual performances so far this season
National Rank / School Name / Average SR
51 - Maximo Zavaleta - 186.2
56 - Eyan Turk - 185.8
57 - Broen Holman - 185.8
62 - Griffin Kushan - 185.3
68 - Aydon Stefanopoulos - 184.7
81 - Liam Miller - 184.23
109 - Evan Noonan - 183.37
115 - Conor Lott - 183.23
131 - Miles Cook - 182.57
142 - Zion Ortiz - 182.23
(Trey Caldwell’s performance at De La Salle should probably be included here. My guess is mid 183s?)Notes: Probably the more underwhelming part of the California rankings are the boy individuals. As of yet, not a single individual has a performance in the top 50. However, Tostenson and Kitchen might be coming to Clovis, will give another chance for the top California boys to put in a solid performance.
Girls top 10 individual performances so far this season
1 - Rylee Blade - 158.23
4 - Chiara Dailey - 155.60
8 - Sadie Englebardt - 151.60
10 - Hanne Thomsen - 151.43
27 - Braelyn Combe - 144.03
50 - Abigail Errington - 139.23
55 - Millie Bayles - 138.8
74 - Grace Smith - 137.1
87 - Mackenzie Forrest - 135.8
91 - Keaton Robar - 135.5Notes: The most exciting rankings come from the girls. 4 of the top 10 girl performance come from California. Really great stuff. Our girls are killing it. Hopefully they can keep it together when it matters most at the national stage and show what they got. However, projections look good.
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“Noonan won’t come close” is wild. Sure, he had a bad race at Woodbridge, but I think we may underestimating him a bit. This is the same Noonan who ran 13:39 as a junior. I definitely feel he will put up a good fight with Totenson and Kitchen. Maybe he won’t break the record, but not coming close to it is definitely a crazy take.
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Meet tomorrow with lots of good competition, Beckman, Mira Costa, San Clemente, trabuco hills, Shadow ridge(from Nevada, out of state competition is surprising), El Toro, Ayala, tesoro, Woodbridge, and some other notable teams. Dana hills and Wood Crest Christian are also entered, so there's a chance we'll see eyan turk or Evan Noonan if they want to race it.
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Oops, forgot to list redondo
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Central park invite '24 wrote:
Meet tomorrow with lots of good competition, Beckman, Mira Costa, San Clemente, trabuco hills, Shadow ridge(from Nevada, out of state competition is surprising), El Toro, Ayala, tesoro, Woodbridge, and some other notable teams. Dana hills and Wood Crest Christian are also entered, so there's a chance we'll see eyan turk or Evan Noonan if they want to race it.
This looked good originally, but if the entries list is correct, not many of the top runners will be racing this weekend. Can't blame them if they are running Clovis next week.
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All the best teams in SJS will be racing today at Tom Laythe invitational at Willow Hills. They had to make a last minute course change and reverse the start.
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Evan Noonan and Dana Hills are running at Niketown today
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Central Park:
Senior Braden Herrera won the open race in 15:37. He used to run for Newbury Park last year but now he’s not running for any high school team
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