Sorry but I can't get over everyone picking Rice over Ricchiuti. Ricchiuti is from easily the most stacked region individually and has lost only to Ackley this season. Literally nobody from there can touch him. If you look at his last 3 races he's been under 15:10 every week and just ran 15:08 on a notoriously slow course. Sure Rice has been solid but on the season as a whole he hasn't run even close to the times Ricchiuti has (albeit on slower courses) and he has lost. Ricchiuti has a ton of close wins, meaning he hasn't been outkicked at all, even by a guy like Gabelman who's a 4:12 miler.
Sorry but I can't get over everyone picking Rice over Ricchiuti. Ricchiuti is from easily the most stacked region individually and has lost only to Ackley this season. Literally nobody from there can touch him. If you look at his last 3 races he's been under 15:10 every week and just ran 15:08 on a notoriously slow course. Sure Rice has been solid but on the season as a whole he hasn't run even close to the times Ricchiuti has (albeit on slower courses) and he has lost. Ricchiuti has a ton of close wins, meaning he hasn't been outkicked at all, even by a guy like Gabelman who's a 4:12 miler.
Mostly because Tommy beat him in the 3200 last spring at state pretty convincingly.
But also because he easily ran away from Ryan Smith at Eisenhart, basically forcing him to quit that race (no joke). Sam has beaten Ryan a few times with a strong kick, but he hasn't flat dropped him the way Tommy did.
Giving this a go. Flame away... Boys D1 Predictions:
That's a good list--nice effort. I may try my hand at such an endeavor later in the week. I am particularly intrigued by Ntwali and where he ends up.
I take back my prediction of the Lanoy triplets possibly finishing in the top 10--I think two of the three can finish somewhere in places 12-20 and the third one finishing somewhere in places 21-30.
I am also very intrigued to see how Lancaster ends up as a team--a strong #2 finish and close to Mason? Or not?
I see that you have another set of brothers--the Pappas brothers (twins?) of Green--in the top 30.
Sorry but I can't get over everyone picking Rice over Ricchiuti.
I am very curious to see how that front pack plays out. Will Ackley run away with it early or will there be a crowd at the front for a long, long while that includes Ackley, Ricchiuti, Rice, Ntwali, Trapp, Shaughnessy, and Schachleiter? I expect Gabelman, Rudraraju, and Allwein to be in that front pack as well--for how long? At what point will that front pack break apart?
While I still stick to picking Rice over Ricchiuti, I think it will come down to the wire between them--in the final straightaway? Excitement abounds.
Sorry but I can't get over everyone picking Rice over Ricchiuti. Ricchiuti is from easily the most stacked region individually and has lost only to Ackley this season. Literally nobody from there can touch him. If you look at his last 3 races he's been under 15:10 every week and just ran 15:08 on a notoriously slow course. Sure Rice has been solid but on the season as a whole he hasn't run even close to the times Ricchiuti has (albeit on slower courses) and he has lost. Ricchiuti has a ton of close wins, meaning he hasn't been outkicked at all, even by a guy like Gabelman who's a 4:12 miler.
Pickerington is typically slow, but it clearly did not run slow this year for whatever reason. Lots of PRs or guys darn close to PRs in that race.
Otherwise, very fair points, should be a great battle.
I am very curious to see how that front pack plays out. Will Ackley run away with it early or will there be a crowd at the front for a long, long while that includes Ackley, Ricchiuti, Rice, Ntwali, Trapp, Shaughnessy, and Schachleiter? I expect Gabelman, Rudraraju, and Allwein to be in that front pack as well--for how long? At what point will that front pack break apart?
While I still stick to picking Rice over Ricchiuti, I think it will come down to the wire between them--in the final straightaway? Excitement abounds.
I would expect Kimmel to also be in that group.
Does anyone know what happened with Xu? Is he injured? Mason can win without him having a great performance but they’re a lot better with him running well.
Don’t know who here keeps up with D2 but some d2 individual rankings would be interesting
I typically follow D2 a bit closer than I have this year but it’s pretty obvious that Marlington is the best team overall and should have little difficulty winning the title. There not as dominant as the Woodridge team from a few years ago that was probably the best team in Ohio regardless of division but they’re still pretty solid and would contend for a top 5 spot if they were D1.
After Marlington there’s a lot of teams to contend for the 2 through 10 spots. Carroll, Shelby, Fairfield Union, Granville, Unioto, Woodridge, and others I’ve probably missed. Bexley might contend for a top 10 spot. Woodridge isn’t having one of their better years but can never be counted out.
I typically follow D2 a bit closer than I have this year but it’s pretty obvious that Marlington is the best team overall and should have little difficulty winning the title. There not as dominant as the Woodridge team from a few years ago that was probably the best team in Ohio regardless of division but they’re still pretty solid and would contend for a top 5 spot if they were D1.
After Marlington there’s a lot of teams to contend for the 2 through 10 spots. Carroll, Shelby, Fairfield Union, Granville, Unioto, Woodridge, and others I’ve probably missed. Bexley might contend for a top 10 spot. Woodridge isn’t having one of their better years but can never be counted out.
I actually think we will learn a lot in Central OH. When all of D1 Region 3 races at Hilliard Darby this Saturday, you'll be able to have a fair, recent comp of times. I don't see any teams in those district sections with the luxury of taking a week off, not giving "max effort", etc.
Only five will advance out of Pickerington next week. We'll get a good idea who those teams will be this Saturday.
1. Lancaster
2. HD
3. Coffman
Those 3 might as well be locks, assuming the unthinkable doesn't happen. That leaves 6 teams for 2 spots. I personally would list them like this:
Less Likely - Jerome, WN, Desales
While Jerome has been trending in the right direction as of late, they still are not a crazy strong team. Ricchiuti and Razor have looked solid, but they will need to tighten up their 3-5 if they want a chance. Sure, a couple of their runners have dipped into the mid 16s once or twice, but I'm not sure what they showed at OCCs will be enough. Westerville North has a similar case, they have shown that they are capable of a States run, but they have been trending backwards as of late. 7th at Berlin behind many of these other teams, and then an OCC loss to Kilbourne, whom they beat by 20 points at their home meet. Gabelman and Bracken are both solid front runners, but he gap between their 2 and 3 was over a minute at OCCs. Yes, they have like 8 runners in that 17-17:25 range, but 3 scorers in that range at Regionals will not be enough this year. And as for Desales, they certainly have a lot of depth in the 16s and have shown good performances, but with no realistic runners finishing in the top 25-30, and the lack of D1 regional experience, I see this team packing most of it's scorers in the 40-60 range. It's possible for them to do better, but I don't see them beating 5 out of these 6 teams.
More Likely - PickN, Kilbourne, Orange
PickN has shown up as of late in a big way. Back to back wins at Eisenhart and OCCs, this team deserves the praise. By no means are they a lock, the times they put up at Eisenhart were magical, but they seemed a bit back down to earth at their OCC race. If their top 3 can find consistency around that 16-16:15 range(which they have yet to find), and their 4-5 find themselves at 17 minutes or under, it will be tough for this team to be knocked out. Kilbourne is in a similar situation. Had it not been for one of their runners dropping out, they would have finished right behind PickN at Eisenhart. And a week later they beat WN on a sub par day for some of their runners. Their inconsistency has hurt them at times this season, but they are starting to preform when it matters. Smith and Miller are solid top 10 runners, and their 3rd has also shown solid performances under 16:15 this season. If their 4-5 can put themselves around that 17 minute and under bubble, Kilbourne will be competing closely for a state spot. And lastly Orange. I struggle to understand this team. Rudraraju as battled injury and hasn't quite been able to keep pace with other top regional runners, and Giacomelli who qualified for states individually last year has seemingly fallen off a cliff, but sophomore Schroff has been coming up big this season as a solid #2 runner, and runners Woolard and Allender have been running in the mid 16s fairly often. I was doubtful of this team for a while because of the uncertainly of some of their runners and that their 5th runner seems weak compared to some other teams, but they just beat 4/6 teams I'm discussing at Berlin. So they have to be a solid contender right? Idk.
I'd like to hear some thoughts from other central Ohioans, this regional meet is going to be wild.
In hindsight... this was pretty damn spot on. Nice.