I am a little surprised that despite recent developments all of the "professionals" (Stride, Flotrack, Wood) still have Tuohy and NC St ranked first and other that Stride, by a wide margin. I think both competitions will be pretty close.
I am a little surprised that despite recent developments all of the "professionals" (Stride, Flotrack, Wood) still have Tuohy and NC St ranked first and other that Stride, by a wide margin. I think both competitions will be pretty close.
They don't...
Wood report has not updated in weeks, Lacctic has Valby #1, outside the oval has valby #1 (that's what he said in the pod). What wide margin?
Tsr still has tuohy #1, but I think they were pretty clear it's close.
I am a little surprised that despite recent developments all of the "professionals" (Stride, Flotrack, Wood) still have Tuohy and NC St ranked first and other that Stride, by a wide margin. I think both competitions will be pretty close.
They don't...
Wood report has not updated in weeks, Lacctic has Valby #1, outside the oval has valby #1 (that's what he said in the pod). What wide margin?
Tsr still has tuohy #1, but I think they were pretty clear it's close.
Well, LAACTiC is not a "professional ranker.......and I did not cite them....didn't check "Outside the Oval", but the ones I did (the ones I cited) do...Wood has not updated which means until he does, his rankings are what they are.
Wood report has not updated in weeks, Lacctic has Valby #1, outside the oval has valby #1 (that's what he said in the pod). What wide margin?
Tsr still has tuohy #1, but I think they were pretty clear it's close.
Well, LAACTiC is not a "professional ranker.......and I did not cite them....didn't check "Outside the Oval", but the ones I did (the ones I cited) do...Wood has not updated which means until he does, his rankings are what they are.
I think Flo and tsr are giving tuohy an edge in part because she beat Chelangat by 12 seconds at piane.
But, I am still not sure we saw full effort from chel in that race given how close she was to olemomoi.
Otoh, the race was 25 seconds faster by 4k than last year so Chelangat may just not have had a kick left. Chelangat also beat her 2021 time by 12 seconds as well. So maybe she was trying hard?
Chelangat was all out, 1 second off the previous course record. Tuohy shelled her in the final 1k. Does not have the kick. In sit and kick races aggregate gaps tend to be smaller.
Chelangat was all out, 1 second off the previous course record. Tuohy shelled her in the final 1k. Does not have the kick. In sit and kick races aggregate gaps tend to be smaller.
You could be right. But, according to the splits last year Chel closed in 3:00/k, this year like 3:10/k. So, not sure what to make of that, other than the race was out fast for her (that day).
At SEC she closed in 3:01/k (if the splits are right... which as discussed they may not be)
Well, LAACTiC is not a "professional ranker.......and I did not cite them....didn't check "Outside the Oval", but the ones I did (the ones I cited) do...Wood has not updated which means until he does, his rankings are what they are.
I think Flo and tsr are giving tuohy an edge in part because she beat Chelangat by 12 seconds at piane.
But, I am still not sure we saw full effort from chel in that race given how close she was to olemomoi.
Otoh, the race was 25 seconds faster by 4k than last year so Chelangat may just not have had a kick left. Chelangat also beat her 2021 time by 12 seconds as well. So maybe she was trying hard?
I don't put too much emphasis on that early season race, but Tuohy did separate...I think Valby's recent margin over Van Camp is more telling - ~40 seconds at SEC vs 22 vs Tuohy at Nuttycombe (and Van Camp's times was 1:00 faster than at Nuttycombe) But Tuohy clearly could have gone faster while Van Camp seemed to be at her limit as she could not accelerate off the 20:00 pace after 5K. So it is not obvious to me Tuohy is faster, or that Valby is much faster than Tuohy. But Valby has not yet run hills and that presents an unknown.
Gordon goes solo to break down the latest NCAA cross country rankings after the conference championship weekend.Become a member for exclusive perks: https://...
I think Flo and tsr are giving tuohy an edge in part because she beat Chelangat by 12 seconds at piane.
But, I am still not sure we saw full effort from chel in that race given how close she was to olemomoi.
Otoh, the race was 25 seconds faster by 4k than last year so Chelangat may just not have had a kick left. Chelangat also beat her 2021 time by 12 seconds as well. So maybe she was trying hard?
I don't put too much emphasis on that early season race, but Tuohy did separate...I think Valby's recent margin over Van Camp is more telling - ~40 seconds at SEC vs 22 vs Tuohy at Nuttycombe (and Van Camp's times was 1:00 faster than at Nuttycombe) But Tuohy clearly could have gone faster while Van Camp seemed to be at her limit as she could not accelerate off the 20:00 pace after 5K. So it is not obvious to me Tuohy is faster, or that Valby is much faster than Tuohy. But Valby has not yet run hills and that presents an unknown.
It's a tough call. For me it's- was the course actually 150m short? If it was, and the paces were way off, then touhy has a chance. If not, she might be behind chelangat.
Blank231 wrote: It's a tough call. For me it's- was the course actually 150m short? If it was, and the paces were way off, then touhy has a chance. If not, she might be behind chelangat.
If you accept that course is 6K then Valby and Chelangat have both gotten very fast this year and Tuohy has no chance. I do not. The splits make no sense and only make sense if the course is short of 6K.
Blank231 wrote: It's a tough call. For me it's- was the course actually 150m short? If it was, and the paces were way off, then touhy has a chance. If not, she might be behind chelangat.
If you accept that course is 6K then Valby and Chelangat have both gotten very fast this year and Tuohy has no chance. I do not. The splits make no sense and only make sense if the course is short of 6K.
I tend to agree with you.
Side note- I checked the barrios splits and noticed some similar acceleration patterns, again in the middle of the race.
Plus you would have to assume that Chelangat went from 12 seconds behind Tuohy to suddenly well ahead of her in a matter of a few weeks if we take the ratings literally. No reason to.
Plus you would have to assume that Chelangat went from 12 seconds behind Tuohy to suddenly well ahead of her in a matter of a few weeks if we take the ratings literally. No reason to.
Maybe Chelangat ran 10 miles before the ND race lol
Plus you would have to assume that Chelangat went from 12 seconds behind Tuohy to suddenly well ahead of her in a matter of a few weeks if we take the ratings literally. No reason to.
Maybe Chelangat ran 10 miles before the ND race lol
Well, exactly.
She beat olemomoi by 20 seconds at SEC, tynismaa by 35(?), But only beat them by 3 & 23 seconds respectively at Piane. Something between those results doesn't make sense. Hence the question mark for me.
Maybe it is the difference between 5k vs. 6k. Maybe an athlete did better in one race and worse in the other. The truth of it is that there is not enough data, so the limited data people have gets relentlessly overinterpreted.
5K races vs 6K, geographically different courses, flat vs hilly, Sept vs October…you know these kinds of comparisons are infinitely problematic.
The difficulty with the short course narrative for SEC (as we’ve discussed) is that the portion of the W course that might be in question is identical to the men’s course — and the men’s splits reveal no anomalies.
Do runners get faster in a month? You betcha. Seems some want to believe such a thing about some but not about others. Wrt Barrios, I must have missed the mid race anomalies cuz I only found low 5:00s for PV the entire race, unlike the mid-race 4:30s period at SEC.
SEC top 5 were sorted out very early in the race — certainly in the first 2K — while MC and PV further separated shortly thereafter. MC never really challenged for the lead; like Barrios, PV took off at the beginning and her lead never looked like it was in doubt. She did the exact same thing at SEC 2021 (Gans Creek) but faded after 4K. Very similar at 2021 NCAA…but faded after 4K on second loop (2x up ‘the wall’ at App Park).
I’m not taken by ‘huge PRs’ on flat courses later in an XC season cuz, 1) they’re flat courses… and, 2) my observation is that more young people are getting much faster due to better training, recovery, nutrition and rehab programs across the board — and in many cases at the HS level. The cumulative affect is much ‘faster.’ Combine all of that w absolutely perfect conditions in some cases, a large incentive to win (Championship stakes), maybe a little short course here and there, and youre gonna get some really fast times. Take those same runners to hilly, wet and/or windy with another 100 competitors in the race, and things will change; it is all but guaranteed.
The difficulty with the short course narrative for SEC (as we’ve discussed) is that the portion of the W course that might be in question is identical to the men’s course — and the men’s splits reveal no anomalies.
I have been thinking about this more. Yes the 2 courses are basically run on the same loops. But the 8K is 3 loops and the 6K is 2 loops. Both add on the start and finish sections. Those seem to total about 400 m. So the loop for the 8K course has to be 2533 (3x2533+400 =8000) while for the 6K course it has to be 2800 (2x2800+400=6000). So the little piece added for the 6K course at about 1.5 K has to add 267 m to the loop. It looks short of that to me, more like 200 m, but maybe people have better eyes than I.