Anyone else feel like even if Trump gets impeached that he'll still have at least a mild chance of winning re-election in 2020?
Anyone else feel like even if Trump gets impeached that he'll still have at least a mild chance of winning re-election in 2020?
Racket wrote:
Anyone else feel like even if Trump gets impeached that he'll still have at least a mild chance of winning re-election in 2020?
Yes, and that's because he continues to fill the void of stupidity and hate in the GOP. He won't get even the 46% he achieved in 2016 though, so as long as there is a strong enough showing by Dems it should be game over for agent orange.
Hmm, who to believe.. a veteran Purple Heart recipient who put his life on the line for this country or a veteran NYC swamp creature who shamelessly lies every time he opens his mouth?
from CNN:
"Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman testified that one example of his attempts to change the transcript was to include Trump telling Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky there were tapes of Biden, which The New York Times reported occurred where there's an ellipsis in the transcript that was released. The change was not made. The assertion that some portion of the conversation was replaced by an ellipsis contradicts the White House's statement in September that the ellipses in the transcript did not represent missing words or phrases. It also contradicts the President who has insisted the transcript the White House released was an exact depiction of the call, even though the memo itself describes it as rough."
“The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump” and several other works indicate that the likely scenario (they’ve been right in the two years since publication) is that his condition will worsen: increased paranoia & anger, reduced mental facility, even more outrageous lies.
They imply that removal for incapacitation may be necessary.
Racket wrote:
Anyone else feel like even if Trump gets impeached that he'll still have at least a mild chance of winning re-election in 2020?
A lot can happen over the next year outside of the impeachment.
But as far as how the impeachment may affect the election, it depends on how many senators vote to convict.
It could be straight party lines. 53 Republicans vote to acquit to 47 Democrats voting to convict.
Then it's straight tribalism for the 2020 election. Best chance for him to win.
Or what if a handful of Republicans vote to convict - Romney, Collins, Murkowsky and at least one other.
Then you have a majority conviction with Republican support.
That's gotta hurt Trump's chances a lot.
What of 13 Republicans vote conviction and it's 60-40 to convict, but that means he stays in office.
That may piss the public off. Many don't understand that you need 67 and really would feel motivated to vote him out.
Of course Trump and his base will just point that the result is acquittal and say it's total vindication.
And the timing of the Senate vote will matter.
Will that vote happen before or after primaries?
If the vote happens after primaries, I think more Republicans will be likely to vote to convict to look good for the general election.
If it happens before primaries, some may acquit in fear of losing in the primary.
That's why I think Nancy may slow walk the formal impeachment vote until after the primary season as long as the delay doesn't cause loss of public interest.
Be prepared for 7 or so months of inquiry, possibly.
Trollminator wrote:
Racket wrote:
Anyone else feel like even if Trump gets impeached that he'll still have at least a mild chance of winning re-election in 2020?
Yes, and that's because he continues to fill the void of stupidity and hate in the GOP. He won't get even the 46% he achieved in 2016 though, so as long as there is a strong enough showing by Dems it should be game over for agent orange.
I'm sure Trump will find a way to sink so amazingly low in the campaign that yes he has a good chance to win. 40% or so. We will somehow be surprised by the depravity of Trumpists even though we know it's coming. they have no morals, no ethics, no decency, no shame it's asymmetric politics. They will lie and break all the rules...and Dems won't. Are Americans decent enough as a voting population to turn back the tide of Republican indecency? They were in 2018...
agip wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Yes, and that's because he continues to fill the void of stupidity and hate in the GOP. He won't get even the 46% he achieved in 2016 though, so as long as there is a strong enough showing by Dems it should be game over for agent orange.
I'm sure Trump will find a way to sink so amazingly low in the campaign that yes he has a good chance to win. 40% or so. We will somehow be surprised by the depravity of Trumpists even though we know it's coming. they have no morals, no ethics, no decency, no shame it's asymmetric politics. They will lie and break all the rules...and Dems won't. Are Americans decent enough as a voting population to turn back the tide of Republican indecency? They were in 2018...
No. There's something wrong with Trump, but there's something more wrong with the US right now. The same forces that pushed him to (a technical) victory in 2016 are still strong. That's why everyone has the feeling that Trump still has a chance in 2020 because when we look around we can all see it, but we want to throw all the blame on Trump as if he's more than just a symptom.
And let's not pretend that Democrats are all angels either. The fact that Senator Bob Menendez (D, NJ) managed to avoid jail and then get re-elected amazes me.
Interesting theory about impeachment between primaries & campaign.
Trump will think he can win with a billion-dollar campaign (no foreign funding of course!), Pelosi will feel they have to vote by then even if trump stonewalls.
Neither can necessarily control Supreme Court, incapacitation, suicide/overdose, or popular sentiment, etc.
Racket wrote:
And let's not pretend that Democrats are all angels either. The fact that Senator Bob Menendez (D, NJ) managed to avoid jail and then get re-elected amazes me.
Point taken, and it's a valid one.
But in fairness let's remember that a jury of his peers did not convict Menendez on any charges, and the government then dropped the case. "The Menendez case was strongly shaped by McDonnell v. United States, the 2016 Supreme Court decision to dismiss the corruption conviction of former [Republican] Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, which narrowed the legal definition of public corruption and made it harder for prosecutors to prove that a political official engaged in bribery." [Wiki]
Racket wrote:
No. There's something wrong with Trump, but there's something more wrong with the US right now. The same forces that pushed him to (a technical) victory in 2016 are still strong. That's why everyone has the feeling that Trump still has a chance in 2020 because when we look around we can all see it, but we want to throw all the blame on Trump as if he's more than just a symptom.
And let's not pretend that Democrats are all angels either. The fact that Senator Bob Menendez (D, NJ) managed to avoid jail and then get re-elected amazes me.
Have to agree.. like I've always said, he had no shot in 2012, 2008 or before... the country had simply not eroded to that level yet. I guess one can argue he might have an even bigger shot in 2020 then, but I really doubt he can pull it off easily. We have to admit the gloom and doom tactics work though.. if you have enough Rs super motivated due to being in utter despair happy to blame anyone else and on the other side you have people who are disconnected from politics or completely disgusted by it, then you can guess who which group will have a strong showing.
present, esq. wrote:
Racket wrote:
And let's not pretend that Democrats are all angels either. The fact that Senator Bob Menendez (D, NJ) managed to avoid jail and then get re-elected amazes me.
Point taken, and it's a valid one.
But in fairness let's remember that a jury of his peers did not convict Menendez on any charges, and the government then dropped the case. "The Menendez case was strongly shaped by McDonnell v. United States, the 2016 Supreme Court decision to dismiss the corruption conviction of former [Republican] Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, which narrowed the legal definition of public corruption and made it harder for prosecutors to prove that a political official engaged in bribery." [Wiki]
look in a large group of people there will always be bad apples.
the difference here is that the R party is nothing but a pack of bad apples. They welcome more bad apples and purposefully rot them. Yes, there are corrupt Dems. The difference is that the R party is a corrupt party.
As for America. I dunno. We are part yahoo nation, part intellectual nation, part cowboy part college professor. And it has always been that way. I'm reading about the 1920s in the Mississippi delta...the klan basically took over the region, with the same motives as trumpism. Fighting easterners, fighting both the rich and the poor, fighting change, blaming immigrants. It's always been like this.
The reason the klan faded is that they did not find a national leader...all they had was local grand cyclopses. i suppose you could argue that we are in worse shape because the klannish forces did find a national leader this time: DJT.
but the point is the USA has always had this mix. It's nothing new. Through a weird election we elected one of the worst people in the country. it will pass.
Meh... wrote:
jesseriley wrote:
Impeachment Halloween Haunted House:
“Opened the lid, Ghost shook his fist /
And said, Vatever happent to my Transylvania Twist? /
It’s now the Mash!”
Gravy, anyone?
Not your best Flagpole.
One of your worst, Sally Rigged.
Michael Flynn sentencing:
Yes, he filed 116 pages of alibis & motions (without wanting a trial!).
Result: another delay in sentencing, with the understanding the plea deal could be off the table for better or worse.
Racket wrote:
Anyone else feel like even if Trump gets impeached that he'll still have at least a mild chance of winning re-election in 2020?
Trump cannot run if the Senate completes the impeachment process. Trump has no chance of winning in 2020. He'll get less than 40% of the vote, and that is why Senate Republicans will likely hang him. Republicans have a better chance with someone else running in 2020 to boost their percentage up.
Trollminator wrote:
https://twitter.com/maramcewin/status/1189517625069637633
"No pressure" said Trump. Therefore no quid pro quo? Is that like putting a gun to someone's head and not pulling the trigger?
Unelectable wrote:
Trump cannot run if the Senate completes the impeachment process. Trump has no chance of winning in 2020. He'll get less than 40% of the vote, and that is why Senate Republicans will likely hang him. Republicans have a better chance with someone else running in 2020 to boost their percentage up.
There is a Republican primary.
Though, several states have already cancelled their Republican primary.
If the Republican party wants someone else on the ticket for 2020, they should get behind someone now.
And they can't remove him through impeachment unless the Democrat run House votes to impeach in the first place.
The Republicans are totally tied to Trump.
And that goes up and down for the senate and house seats up for election.
CNN has been live since just after 6am Eastern. Sally hadn’t even quit drinking yet after Astros loss! She didn’t have to lip-read in Ukrainian to see why Martinez got tossed! It’s YouTubed with helpful voiceovers!
Familiar stuff! The ‘Net was divided over whether the umpires were stupid, corrupt, blind, or lying! Nats won anyway...
agip wrote:
present, esq. wrote:
Point taken, and it's a valid one.
But in fairness let's remember that a jury of his peers did not convict Menendez on any charges, and the government then dropped the case. "The Menendez case was strongly shaped by McDonnell v. United States, the 2016 Supreme Court decision to dismiss the corruption conviction of former [Republican] Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, which narrowed the legal definition of public corruption and made it harder for prosecutors to prove that a political official engaged in bribery." [Wiki]
look in a large group of people there will always be bad apples.
the difference here is that the R party is nothing but a pack of bad apples. They welcome more bad apples and purposefully rot them. Yes, there are corrupt Dems. The difference is that the R party is a corrupt party.
As for America. I dunno. We are part yahoo nation, part intellectual nation, part cowboy part college professor. And it has always been that way. I'm reading about the 1920s in the Mississippi delta...the klan basically took over the region, with the same motives as trumpism. Fighting easterners, fighting both the rich and the poor, fighting change, blaming immigrants. It's always been like this.
The reason the klan faded is that they did not find a national leader...all they had was local grand cyclopses. i suppose you could argue that we are in worse shape because the klannish forces did find a national leader this time: DJT.
but the point is the USA has always had this mix. It's nothing new. Through a weird election we elected one of the worst people in the country. it will pass.
The problem is not in the fringe KKK supporters who have, as you pointed out, always been around. I see a few issues that make this different than the past(non of which will be solved by 2020 so strap in). Decades of pro-globalization policies and the practice of shipping jobs to China has left a significant portion of American workers behind, immigration seems to be at a tipping point (again), and the internet has allowed various narratives to spread faster and farther than in the past.
To boil it down, Republicans and Democrats have almost never been so different in terms of geographic location, occupation, age, and wealth. It's hard to sympathize or compromise with people you have nothing in common with.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
look in a large group of people there will always be bad apples.
the difference here is that the R party is nothing but a pack of bad apples. They welcome more bad apples and purposefully rot them. Yes, there are corrupt Dems. The difference is that the R party is a corrupt party.
As for America. I dunno. We are part yahoo nation, part intellectual nation, part cowboy part college professor. And it has always been that way. I'm reading about the 1920s in the Mississippi delta...the klan basically took over the region, with the same motives as trumpism. Fighting easterners, fighting both the rich and the poor, fighting change, blaming immigrants. It's always been like this.
The reason the klan faded is that they did not find a national leader...all they had was local grand cyclopses. i suppose you could argue that we are in worse shape because the klannish forces did find a national leader this time: DJT.
but the point is the USA has always had this mix. It's nothing new. Through a weird election we elected one of the worst people in the country. it will pass.
The problem is not in the fringe KKK supporters who have, as you pointed out, always been around. I see a few issues that make this different than the past(non of which will be solved by 2020 so strap in). Decades of pro-globalization policies and the practice of shipping jobs to China has left a significant portion of American workers behind, immigration seems to be at a tipping point (again), and the internet has allowed various narratives to spread faster and farther than in the past.
To boil it down, Republicans and Democrats have almost never been so different in terms of geographic location, occupation, age, and wealth. It's hard to sympathize or compromise with people you have nothing in common with.
my point is that the klan was not fringe at all in the 1920s. It had governors, controlled state legislatures, sponsored outright white supremacists/segregationists in the US senate and governors mansions. It was not a few rednecks in pickups. it was 'respectable' people, and millions of them. Just like todays' trumpist party. And the list of grievances was almost the same. They stopped caring about Catholics, thank god, and care a bit less about jews now, but otherwise it's all the same platform.
And it's not about economics. Never really has been. Dems think in terms of economics. Bernie and warren are all about economics. The klan/trumpists think differently: they think in terms of change, race, status, how people talk. So it's not inequality or globalism that motivates the trumpists for the most part. It's a deep, deep resentment of change and eastern elites telling them what to think and how to act. And frustration that racial minorities seem to have protected status over whites. That's why they fly confederate flags - to give a big middle finger to NYC and LAers.