Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Big Dog,

We will see. The market rise is on very narrow group of large cap stocks while most stocks stay below their 200 day moving average. The largest number of suckers get drawn into the later stages of a Bull market. If you are truly a Big Dog you will know exactly when to sell; that was closer to some today than some tomorrow.

Best wishes though.

Igy

This is fundamentally incorrect. Less than 20% of SP500 companies WERE above the 200 day moving average a month ago, but now 56% of such companies are above, over 60% of NDX and OEX are above the same average, and now 40% for the NYSE. Some people use 70% of stocks above the 200 day as a short term overvalued signal ($SPXA200R on stockcharts.com).

The Investment Company Institute shows that through 10/21 John Q Public has been selling equity mutual funds this whole rally, but the large commercials trading the stock index futures (people like Goldman Sachs) are still net long about 40,000 SP500 contracts.

This is a SMART MONEY rally. So are you smart enough?

Bigdog Investments wrote:

No one knows "exactly when to sell". Only a fool tries to time the market.

Only a fool buys and holds at all times.

coach d,

Smart money was also in at the top in 2000 and 2007. Best wishes on your tiger ride. Stock buybacks, mergers, acquisitions, spinoffs, financed through record covenant light debt issuance. Failed IPOs, story stock blow ups, questionable accounting, pressure to meet even lowered EPS. Falling revenue and deteriorating fundamentals cheered by institutions and the financial media. Goldman Sachs isn't any smarter than anyone else, they just have the resources. Remember Goldman almost went belly- up seven years ago almost to the day.

Igy

What aboutery wrote:

Bigdog Investments wrote:

No one knows "exactly when to sell". Only a fool tries to time the market.

Only a fool buys and holds at all times.

Only a fool thinks someone "buys and holds at all times". That same fool would likely sit on cash during a bull market.

There is nothing wrong in China?

http://shanghaiist.com/2015/11/01/shanzhai_capitol_building_in_wuhan.php

Andy Xie wrote:

There is nothing wrong in China?

http://shanghaiist.com/2015/11/01/shanzhai_capitol_building_in_wuhan.php

huh?

A somewhat different interpretation than coach d:

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=41074

Who knows? Fundamentally overvalued anyway, regardless of the technical indicators.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

coach d,

Smart money was also in at the top in 2000 and 2007. Best wishes on your tiger ride. Stock buybacks, mergers, acquisitions, spinoffs, financed through record covenant light debt issuance. Failed IPOs, story stock blow ups, questionable accounting, pressure to meet even lowered EPS. Falling revenue and deteriorating fundamentals cheered by institutions and the financial media. Goldman Sachs isn't any smarter than anyone else, they just have the resources. Remember Goldman almost went belly- up seven years ago almost to the day.

Igy

You were called a liar:

"This is fundamentally incorrect. Less than 20% of SP500 companies WERE above the 200 day moving average a month ago, but now 56% of such companies are above, over 60% of NDX and OEX are above the same average, and now 40% for the NYSE."

and this is your response?

Seriously?

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

coach d,

Smart money was also in at the top in 2000 and 2007. Best wishes on your tiger ride. Stock buybacks, mergers, acquisitions, spinoffs, financed through record covenant light debt issuance. Failed IPOs, story stock blow ups, questionable accounting, pressure to meet even lowered EPS. Falling revenue and deteriorating fundamentals cheered by institutions and the financial media. Goldman Sachs isn't any smarter than anyone else, they just have the resources. Remember Goldman almost went belly- up seven years ago almost to the day.

Igy

You were called a liar:

"This is fundamentally incorrect. Less than 20% of SP500 companies WERE above the 200 day moving average a month ago, but now 56% of such companies are above, over 60% of NDX and OEX are above the same average, and now 40% for the NYSE."

and this is your response?

Seriously?

why the hostility? cool it brah

anyway, there are many measures of big cap stocks - Sp500, NYSE, russell 1000, nasdaq - in volatile times you can usually find one index that proves your point.

the moving average claim is probably true for one index but not for another.

Igy reveals himself as a fan of the Austrian School.

POTO>0,

I thank agip for the defense while someone wants to stir up trouble rather than debate.

For the record my quote: "most stocks stay below their 200 day moving average"

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=367#ixzz3qS3o9TJ6

coach d quote: "Less than 20% of SP500 companies WERE above the 200 day moving average a month ago, but now 56% of such companies are above"

Just in case you do not know the difference, "most stocks" are more than the S&P 500.

Furthermore, the S&P 500 is a market cap weighted index, therefore large market cap companies like GOOG, AMZN, APPL, MCD, GILD, GE, MSFT can have an inordinate influence on the index performance. If Goldman Sachs or any other large institution is buying large upside options contracts it would obviously pull along any other component stocks upward. These distortions should not be cause for joy.

If you care to debate rather than dance the jerk, let me know.

Igy

Sally V,

You are correct I am a fan. If you believe, which I do, that central bank policies are causing serial market distortions, it is hard not to be a fan.

Igy

Another voice that this foolishness will not end well, this time from Stan Drunkenmiller:

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/stanley-druckenmiller-heres-how-fed-bubble-will-end.html

Igy

cool website - gives you a interesting view of what's been happening in teh SP500 by sector. Can sort one day to one year.

Big Tech really stands out YTD

and...oil refining? why is that?

Select the PE tab....

Any thoughts on yesterday's "Merger Monday"? Seems these corporations are looking for ways to spend their cash reserves. Normally good for making companies more efficient and profitable, but historically lots of mergers seem to coincide with a market top.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Select the PE tab....

well that ruined my evening.

agip wrote:

and...oil refining? why is that?

COGS Down; Demand Up; Margins Up; Limited foreign currency exposure

; Higher Crack Spreads (QIII 2015-QIII-2014) West Coast 321 (ANS) ($/barrel) $ 30.88 $ 17.87 Mid-Continent 321 (WTI) ($/barrel) $22.10 $16.94 Operating Cash Flow Surplus