Down goes the Dow

Anyone else feel like we're at the beginning stages of the bubble pop? I know markets are down largely in reaction to Iran, oil, etc, but I see that as more of a catalyst and something that is just getting the ball rolling on much deeper issues that exist in the market and the economy. I've said it before, but a 20% drop or more from all time highs this year would not surprise me.

Here we go again. Trump signals flexibility on Hormuz pre opening this AM....stocks rally and oil prices drop. Three times in a week. Guess they can do this a few more times.

Now that all the scam Trump coins have melted down to zero, a dictator needs a new pump and dump scheme to help his insiders stay loyal to the cause..

And the media sells it as legit. Pathetic

I wrote this on 2/27/2026: “Something is not right with the entire AI investment thesis. You see it in private credit markets, Blue Owl Capital, and AI chip depreciation models. I am willing to bet it blows up.”

The big story behind the Iran

I wrote this on 2/27/2026: “Something is not right with the entire AI investment thesis. You see it in private credit markets, Blue Owl Capital, and AI chip depreciation models. I am willing to bet it blows up.”

The big story behind the Iran War is the declining fundamentals of the AI data centers funding. Blue Owl Capital is limiting redemptions to 5%, and stock is down 8%. The relationship of data centers funding and the AI mega caps has always been suspect with complex interwoven finance structures. Moving financing off balance sheet to give the appearance of greater profitability.

Currently up over 40% on my 1yr return... Even though it's all due to the major dip we had a year ago, I still love seeing those numbers.

That's a lot!

I'd check mine but I have a superstition to not check balances until after market closes. Will let you know, but I'm confident that it's less than that.

That April dip last year was vicious, though.

It is, but the market was down nearly 20% 1 year ago, so that's 90% of the reason.

Check after close and post yours here if you don't mind. I'm trying to get more evidence I know what I'm doing.

Oh, dude! You don't want to know. Just checked.

You most definitely know what you are doing. And you know that. Good job, you da man!

We all bow down in the presence of Flagpole, though.

Be that as it may, keep up the good work!

Thanks. Trying to gauge my performance against others to have empirical validity my thinking is correct. So would love to know numbers, but I realize most of us keep our cards hidden.

Anyone else want to share or check though? I'm very curious...

Mine is comparable, CG 4. A bit higher, but not significantly. This is for brokerage accounts only.

I can tell you that very few achieve returns at that level.

You can do an AI search , and I'll save you the bother - fewer than 1% to 2% of individual investors achieve that level of return "during a standard market year".

If someone were able to do that consistently and on average, that would be trully astounding.

I think it's more like only roughly 1% beat the market at all, by any amount, long term. If someone could even average 15% per year for 10 years they would be one in a million.

I'm kind of kicking myself because I was way too conservative with some moves a year ago. I knew they were right, I just didn't quite realize how much my portfolio has grown over the last few years, so what used to be a big move for me isn't anymore as a percentage of my total value. Not sure what other people's lives are like, but moving around six figures at a time is something that still feels pretty new to me.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq at All Time Highs, if you haven't noticed.

How 'bout that?!

This thread has gone very quiet and some of the main protagonists/antagonists have been MIA a long time. If mas happens to lurk still I have a classmate update to share. Wondering what has become of agip who’s always been a strong contributor here. And while I don’t miss Flagpole very much, I sorta look forward to the post-Trump times when he plans to pop back up again.

It has gone quiet, something I've noticed. I think part of it might be due simply to the fact there hasn't been much for action in the market. We had a bit of a pullback when Iran stuff started, but it never even hit 10% for the S&P500, so not that much to talk about. AI bubble will pop at some point in the next 0-20 months most likely, but we've all already been talking about that a long time. Not really any big news or things to discuss right now.

Currently my 1yr return beats the S&P500 by about 5% as of the time of this writing.

There's been quite a bit to talk about, actually, imo, and I'm pretty sure that is not a good thing.

Be that as it may, it's totally the absence of Agip that has made the difference. He seemed to carry the day to day discourse, and even his frequent assessement of past market predictions and their degree of accuracy gave enough background noise to sustain the thread.

CG 3, congrats on your outperformance of the SNP500 at this time.

That's not really a metric I track on an ongoing basis. What I do track is where I stand relative to my own ATH, and as of yesterdays closing, I was exactly 2.5% below that.

I am happy with that given how choppy things have been this year.

I would probably be about even but I probably got a little too defensive on the downturn, and I tend to do that because I tend to be so heavily stock weighted, there aren't the more customary non-equity holdings to act as a buffer, if that makes any sense.

Interesting times, no doubt.