But I wouldn't be surprised at all by a flat year or even a very low appreciation.
My gut is that what has happened to the economy is what is going to happen to the market, only a bit muted and a bit delayed.
Same. Flat or less than 5% growth wouldn't be surprising to me either. S&P500 currently down almost 7% from all time highs as I type this though, and I think conditions are likely to get worse over the next few months than to get better. Seeing lots of talk about private credit blowing up, AI bubble starting to pop, and more financial stress among average citizens... I'm feeling increasingly strongly that a big drop is likely at some point between now and end of 2027, like more than 20% from all time highs. Trying to position myself for that some, but we will see.
Inherited a 1oz gold coin a long time ago and sold it in 2019. Not that it makes that big of a difference to my overall wealth, but pretty poor timing on my part.
Nice on the gold coin!
I'm getting the impression that the big factors bearing on the market now, among other things, are related to:
the war's impact on oil availability and price,
the conflict in and of itself and Iran choking off commerce transit in Strait of Hormuz),
the prospects of emerging reality that the US is preparing to send in boots on the ground (meaning a protracted conflict), and
the Fed pulling back from cutting rates amidst these inflationary pressures due to the aforementioned developments.
The SNP 500 has been essentially flat for 6 months now, and one might hope for some reason to resume the market's upward trajectory, but I have to say, on the contrary, it feels like there are no reasons for it to do so, and a plethora of reasons to follow the downturn that the broader economy is well into already.
Markets hate uncertainty, and it is blatantly obvious that what is transpiring is happening in an environment lacking transparency, to say the least.
How is everyone feeling about the year moving forward? Apparently midterm years are much more volatile with bigger corrections on average. Do we see that happening this year? Personally i have a tough time seeing the market climb up 10% from here, but I've been a wrong before. A 15-30% drop/correction from all time highs in the next 1.5 years would not surprise me.
Sold some leveraged shorts up 10+%, bought some EM Bond CEFs.
Good going on the leveraged shorts. I've been watching SMST like a hawk, paying particular attention to your comment quite a while ago about being attractive below 60, but as of late, it's been too volatile for me to wade into, though i did trade it a few times a few weeks ago for small profits.
Your thoughts on EM Bonds CEFs is intriguing. Looks good to you at this point?
I have to say, I sold just before market close an international equity ETF i had for a few weeks because it breached the floor level I had set to mitigate losses. I am generally terrible in short term trading, so this should bode will for your prospects in emerging markets going forward.
Sold some leveraged shorts up 10+%, bought some EM Bond CEFs.
Good going on the leveraged shorts. I've been watching SMST like a hawk, paying particular attention to your comment quite a while ago about being attractive below 60, but as of late, it's been too volatile for me to wade into, though i did trade it a few times a few weeks ago for small profits.
Your thoughts on EM Bonds CEFs is intriguing. Looks good to you at this point?
I have to say, I sold just before market close an international equity ETF i had for a few weeks because it breached the floor level I had set to mitigate losses. I am generally terrible in short term trading, so this should bode will for your prospects in emerging markets going forward.
Ha! Haven’t paid too much attention to SMST. I like the income for EM Bond CEFs. I expect them to underperform with the Iran War and higher energy, material costs. Longer term demographics and growth support over Developed Markets. That is my investment thesis, anyway.
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If Trump ran a marathon they could time him with a calendar!
He'd claim timing fraud and demand that the timing matts be seized.
I thought it was a funny AI photo, and appropriate link to the DJT conversation. I posted to an OSU teammates’ text, and one good friend went off. Of course ignoring all that has come from the other side. That’s alright, I posted in good faith, as funny not as a political statement.
Markets keep going down... Nasdaq currently down about 10% from all time highs... Seems like things should get significantly worse for the tech sector over the next 3-18 months I would think? Private credit crisis on the horizon? Seems like a further pullback is near certain in 2026...
Markets keep going down... Nasdaq currently down about 10% from all time highs... Seems like things should get significantly worse for the tech sector over the next 3-18 months I would think? Private credit crisis on the horizon? Seems like a further pullback is near certain in 2026...
There's no way to tell.
Look at the chart for Nasdaq. It's traded in a range for the last 6 months, and it's done several up/down cycles in that time. Yes, now it seems to be dropping through it's baseline a tiny bit, but would you expect any less given what's going on now?
All that has to happen is for Trump to insinuate that he's winding this down and we'll be back up.
On the other hand, boots on the ground, should he mobilize to do so, means a protracted conflict with no end in sight in the near future, and look out below.
TACO. That's been the MO so far, but this seems different.
6 years ago today was one of the most significant days in economic history. March 23rd was the day that Fed said they would engage in unlimited Quantitative Easing to stop the massive equity slide and economic shutdown. This decision has had enormous ramifications. Most bad…
Reports emerged that President Trump postponed U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants and described talks with Iran as “productive.” Oil prices plunged ~10% and U.S. stock indexes rallied sharply.
Massive bet placed minutes before announcement All before market opens
Reports circulated that the U.S. had sent Iran a 15‑point plan aimed at a ceasefire. Oil prices fell sharply (~4–5%) and stock futures rallied A Reuters article linking the peace plan to market moves has a visible published time of ~23:20 UTC (7:20 PM ET) — hours after markets moved
The “announcement” is the excuse, not the driver The 15‑point plan is phony from the start — Iran publicly rejects it, no military or diplomatic progress exists. Yet the announcement gives traders and media a cover story to move markets in a particular direction. It allows elite participants to: Justify large trades in oil and equities Push prices lower (oil) or higher (stocks) without openly appearing to manipulate.
Mechanics of the manipulation Pre-public positioning Institutions with terminal access or connections place large bets ahead of the public story. Media amplification Headlines report the plan as “news,” giving retail traders and other participants a reason to react, even though the substance is hollow. Price movement and perception Once the first big trades move the market, momentum algorithms and funds react automatically, amplifying the effect. Narrative lock-in Even after it’s obvious the plan is dead, media continue reporting it as a “market-moving story,” keeping prices where the manipulators want.
Monday morning’s drop in oil prices had a “justifiable” pretext: Trump’s pause on strikes and the hope for de-escalation. But by Monday afternoon, the market should have stabilized, because reality hadn’t changed — Iran was still rejecting talks, the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, and there was no tangible shift in supply risk. Yet, prices tanked again in the PM. That second drop had no new news to justify it — no fresh reports, no actual policy changes, no confirmed ceasefire signals. That’s why analysts and traders called it suspicious and “forced”.
Monday morning’s drop in oil prices had a “justifiable” pretext: Trump’s pause on strikes and the hope for de-escalation. But by Monday afternoon, the market should have stabilized, because reality hadn’t changed — Iran was still rejecting talks, the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, and there was no tangible shift in supply risk. Yet, prices tanked again in the PM. That second drop had no new news to justify it — no fresh reports, no actual policy changes, no confirmed ceasefire signals. That’s why analysts and traders called it suspicious and “forced”.
Price of oil is up, up, up. Despite the artificial tanking of it twice last week by the criminals
Monday morning’s drop in oil prices had a “justifiable” pretext: Trump’s pause on strikes and the hope for de-escalation. But by Monday afternoon, the market should have stabilized, because reality hadn’t changed — Iran was still rejecting talks, the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, and there was no tangible shift in supply risk. Yet, prices tanked again in the PM. That second drop had no new news to justify it — no fresh reports, no actual policy changes, no confirmed ceasefire signals. That’s why analysts and traders called it suspicious and “forced”.
Price of oil is up, up, up. Despite the artificial tanking of it twice last week by the criminals
It will be interesting to see what gets announced just before markets open today, and then look back 15 minutes earlier for unusual activity in futures markets. Not that i think there’s any corruption or insider trading going on… 😜