Look at the holdings of the top index funds and the top 10 are almost always composed of the Mag 7 and a few others like Broadcom and Eli Lilly.
That was my point, there are no actionable indicators. Every year Wall Street marks up the next year’s projection, then fills in the blank of how you get there.
Okay, I would say that interest rates is a indicator which does impact the market. Maybe there's more but that one for sure.
Generally Flagpole voiced good investment advice. I told him that many times. Don’t disagree with him on principle, though.
Agreed, but he was too rigid and didn't acknowledge that some other investment strategies could be not only profitable, but could even outperform the one he was pushing.
Flagpole and I shared similar investing philosophies. Not sure what could outperform index funds over the long haul.
Generally Flagpole voiced good investment advice. I told him that many times. Don’t disagree with him on principle, though.
Agreed, but he was too rigid and didn't acknowledge that some other investment strategies could be not only profitable, but could even outperform the one he was pushing.
On a political thread he called me stupid and a racist because I disagreed with him. He did that to others as well. To call him bullheaded is an understatement. I once asked him if his friends found him so obnoxious that they avoided being around him. I do my best to act here as if I was talking to someone across my living room. As a former coach I am by trade direct, which naturally can be a shock to some.
Agreed, but he was too rigid and didn't acknowledge that some other investment strategies could be not only profitable, but could even outperform the one he was pushing.
Flagpole and I shared similar investing philosophies. Not sure what could outperform index funds over the long haul.
If you are asking what outperfomrs the S&P 500 index over the long haul: the Nasdaq.
That was easy.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
That was my point, there are no actionable indicators. Every year Wall Street marks up the next year’s projection, then fills in the blank of how you get there.
Okay, I would say that interest rates is a indicator which does impact the market. Maybe there's more but that one for sure.
Sure they do. I think the biggest influence there is Fed policy, where well beyond a crisis, bought bonds to suppress interest rates, shuffled them to their balance sheet. By colluding with Treasury financed unhinged Government spending. Some of this was the Modern Monetary Theory. While for others, mostly politicians, they were just mimicking the Billionaire Class, getting their slice of the pie. Not surprisingly that madness has infected American society at large.
I missed the willingness of markets to permit this extreme monetary policy to continue unquestioned. Pretty apparent in retrospect that politicians were filling their own pockets. Sadly that mechanism continues unabated. It would be a mistake to believe this lust for power and personal enrichment will not have negative consequences in the future.
The interest rates regime we are in now is Fiscal Dominance.That is, suppressing interest rates to control expenses takes precedence over inflation and employment. You see that in Trump’s pressure on Powell, and some erosion of Fed independence.
This post was edited 12 minutes after it was posted.
Agreed, but he was too rigid and didn't acknowledge that some other investment strategies could be not only profitable, but could even outperform the one he was pushing.
On a political thread he called me stupid and a racist because I disagreed with him. He did that to others as well. To call him bullheaded is an understatement. I once asked him if his friends found him so obnoxious that they avoided being around him. I do my best to act here as if I was talking to someone across my living room. As a former coach I am by trade direct, which naturally can be a shock to some.
I remember reading a bunch of stuff from him on this thread and some others too, and it's clear to me there's something not fully right with him. I'm not trying to be mean or insult anyone, but it was undeniable.
On a political thread he called me stupid and a racist because I disagreed with him. He did that to others as well. To call him bullheaded is an understatement. I once asked him if his friends found him so obnoxious that they avoided being around him. I do my best to act here as if I was talking to someone across my living room. As a former coach I am by trade direct, which naturally can be a shock to some.
I remember reading a bunch of stuff from him on this thread and some others too, and it's clear to me there's something not fully right with him. I'm not trying to be mean or insult anyone, but it was undeniable.
It was probably a good decision for him to walk away.
On a political thread he called me stupid and a racist because I disagreed with him. He did that to others as well. To call him bullheaded is an understatement. I once asked him if his friends found him so obnoxious that they avoided being around him. I do my best to act here as if I was talking to someone across my living room. As a former coach I am by trade direct, which naturally can be a shock to some.
I remember reading a bunch of stuff from him on this thread and some others too, and it's clear to me there's something not fully right with him. I'm not trying to be mean or insult anyone, but it was undeniable.
The thing with him beating the Dow 35 out of 36 years was silly. But he was pretty knowledgeable on the stock market. He was very stubborn with politics but was overall a pretty good guy. He was good to his wife and to his kids. That is pretty much all that matters.
I remember reading a bunch of stuff from him on this thread and some others too, and it's clear to me there's something not fully right with him. I'm not trying to be mean or insult anyone, but it was undeniable.
The thing with him beating the Dow 35 out of 36 years was silly. But he was pretty knowledgeable on the stock market. He was very stubborn with politics but was overall a pretty good guy. He was good to his wife and to his kids. That is pretty much all that matters.
I agree with all of that. Actually wish he was around, being such a character. Trump’s inauguration a year ago pushed him over the edge. Humorous in a way, like celebrities leaving the Country.
Okay, I would say that interest rates is a indicator which does impact the market. Maybe there's more but that one for sure.
Sure they do. I think the biggest influence there is Fed policy, where well beyond a crisis, bought bonds to suppress interest rates, shuffled them to their balance sheet. By colluding with Treasury financed unhinged Government spending. Some of this was the Modern Monetary Theory. While for others, mostly politicians, they were just mimicking the Billionaire Class, getting their slice of the pie. Not surprisingly that madness has infected American society at large.
I missed the willingness of markets to permit this extreme monetary policy to continue unquestioned. Pretty apparent in retrospect that politicians were filling their own pockets. Sadly that mechanism continues unabated. It would be a mistake to believe this lust for power and personal enrichment will not have negative consequences in the future.
The interest rates regime we are in now is Fiscal Dominance.That is, suppressing interest rates to control expenses takes precedence over inflation and employment. You see that in Trump’s pressure on Powell, and some erosion of Fed independence.
BREAKING: Sec. Scott Bessent BOMBS fed chair Jerome Powell saying they just PRINT money they want to spend with ZERO OVERSIGHT "I don't know anything about construction. Seemingly, not many people at the fed do." "The way the fed works there are no appropriations. They just print the extra $700 million whether it turns into an extra billion or billion and a half, they just print it." "I can't do that. If I want a new chair in my office at treasury, I have to go through the appropriations process."
Posted in jest, but really how I feel about Our Country and Markets:
This was a stronger country when great NFL head coaches were indistinguishable from every unhappily married local father who attended the football games at your high school while finding fault with each play. pic.twitter.com/wMRwdYhUxV
I remember reading a bunch of stuff from him on this thread and some others too, and it's clear to me there's something not fully right with him. I'm not trying to be mean or insult anyone, but it was undeniable.
The thing with him beating the Dow 35 out of 36 years was silly. But he was pretty knowledgeable on the stock market. He was very stubborn with politics but was overall a pretty good guy. He was good to his wife and to his kids. That is pretty much all that matters.
what i enjoyed most was him going head to head with Greg about who was a better musician. Too funny.
An article in today's NY times, and it is a really long feature lenght article, explains how retailers want to use AI throughout the entire consumer experience in big ways, and how they are already doing it.
There is also a really long article in today's NY TImes about that guy at head of MSTR you talked about (shorting his company). Too long, may read it later. My attention span...
If you had worked on the buyside you would know the proper way to do this is inventory/sales. Looking at quarters ending 10/31 since 2019 %s.
2019 - 34.7%
2020 - 31.6%
2021 - 31.4%
2022 - 75.1%
2023 - 26.4%
2024 - 21.8%
2025 - 34.7%
NVDA's price dropped almost 2/3s from Nov 2021 to Nov 2022. If I was an NVDA investor I would be tracking this metric like a hawk.
I see your point, but how significant is it? If the price per unit drops but you sell more of them, in a general sense, isn't the net outcome about the same?
Of course I understand that cost of goods and labor, etc., must be factored into the equation, but still.
So you are probably implying that revenue or income are necessary to tell the whole story and not just number or units sold (?)
If you had worked on the buyside you would know the proper way to do this is inventory/sales. Looking at quarters ending 10/31 since 2019 %s.
2019 - 34.7%
2020 - 31.6%
2021 - 31.4%
2022 - 75.1%
2023 - 26.4%
2024 - 21.8%
2025 - 34.7%
NVDA's price dropped almost 2/3s from Nov 2021 to Nov 2022. If I was an NVDA investor I would be tracking this metric like a hawk.
I see your point, but how significant is it? If the price per unit drops but you sell more of them, in a general sense, isn't the net outcome about the same?
Of course I understand that cost of goods and labor, etc., must be factored into the equation, but still.
So you are probably implying that revenue or income are necessary to tell the whole story and not just number or units sold (?)
Just got back from my slog and walk*. I think Inventory Turnover Ratio ( Cost of goods sold/average value of inventory ) is what you have in mind. You can find it on Macrotrends for data all the way back to 2011. Probably a better metric to follow. You can see how the market sold off in anticipation of the ratio drop in 2022-23. Also 2018-19 as well.
*72 miles in the last 9 days. Haven't put up numbers like that since 1996.
I see your point, but how significant is it? If the price per unit drops but you sell more of them, in a general sense, isn't the net outcome about the same?
Of course I understand that cost of goods and labor, etc., must be factored into the equation, but still.
So you are probably implying that revenue or income are necessary to tell the whole story and not just number or units sold (?)
Just got back from my slog and walk*. I think Inventory Turnover Ratio ( Cost of goods sold/average value of inventory ) is what you have in mind. You can find it on Macrotrends for data all the way back to 2011. Probably a better metric to follow. You can see how the market sold off in anticipation of the ratio drop in 2022-23. Also 2018-19 as well.
*72 miles in the last 9 days. Haven't put up numbers like that since 1996.
impressive mileage, for sure!
I've actually had to up my stationary bike mileage this week since I got overzealous on a recent strengthening workout and need some added recovery.
Rather than longer mileage, I am finding that supplementing a moderate amount of running with a second workout each day for strengthening seems to keep me humming along.
Just got back from my slog and walk*. I think Inventory Turnover Ratio ( Cost of goods sold/average value of inventory ) is what you have in mind. You can find it on Macrotrends for data all the way back to 2011. Probably a better metric to follow. You can see how the market sold off in anticipation of the ratio drop in 2022-23. Also 2018-19 as well.
*72 miles in the last 9 days. Haven't put up numbers like that since 1996.
impressive mileage, for sure!
I've actually had to up my stationary bike mileage this week since I got overzealous on a recent strengthening workout and need some added recovery.
Rather than longer mileage, I am finding that supplementing a moderate amount of running with a second workout each day for strengthening seems to keep me humming along.
Volume was once my friend. Not so much anymore, unfortunately. Good work gentlemen. I contribute more to the sport via coaching than my mediocre competitive exploits. I would think a modified Run Less, Run Faster approach would work even for a higher volume masters. That is, supplementing running volume with cycling, swimming, or elliptical.
One thing I find is, the mode, method, and intensity structure becomes increasingly narrow with age. It makes sense, when measured against how many are still able to pursue the sport. So much of it must be tailored to the individual.
My 81 year old training partner that is among the best in his age group, runs as much as seven miles before playing pickleball intermittently for several hours. On analysis there are some good things: lateral movement, balance, extension, and time active.
This post was edited 14 minutes after it was posted.
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