Looks like we may be seeing all-time thresholds broken for the first time ...
7,000 S & P
50,000 Dow
26,000 Nasdaq
Yeah, well, not soon enough for me.
What's with these markets?
I've been expecting the usual January surge and instead, we are continuing this holding pattern we've been in for the last 3 months. - atleast for the Nasdaq, though the SNP 500 is looking a little better.
Fair amount of volatility to boot.
I think because the market is already overvalued and has been for a long time... It's a pretty strange situation and hard to decipher what's next because interest rates are coming down, QE is starting up again, and things *seem* to be okay, all indicators the future is fine, but at the same time we're near dot-com bubble level CAPE ratios and higher than we were when the market fell 20% in 2022. Granted you typically see big rebounds after a bear market, but the last few years have been pretty incredibly positive in terms of annual returns. Just seems improbable at best they can continue without some sort of correction.
Also, FWIW, I finally completed my analysis of my past returns year by year, and in 2022, my return for my brokerage account was -18.8% compared to the S&P500's -18.1%. I don't want to say too much, but I have beaten the S&P500 every other year starting in 2020. Does that make me good?
I've been expecting the usual January surge and instead, we are continuing this holding pattern we've been in for the last 3 months. - atleast for the Nasdaq, though the SNP 500 is looking a little better.
Fair amount of volatility to boot.
I think because the market is already overvalued and has been for a long time... It's a pretty strange situation and hard to decipher what's next because interest rates are coming down, QE is starting up again, and things *seem* to be okay, all indicators the future is fine, but at the same time we're near dot-com bubble level CAPE ratios and higher than we were when the market fell 20% in 2022. Granted you typically see big rebounds after a bear market, but the last few years have been pretty incredibly positive in terms of annual returns. Just seems improbable at best they can continue without some sort of correction.
I agree with all that and would only add one other consideration that could be impacting markets.
The tariffs were expected to have a major impact, and they have to some extent on the overall economy, but the markets have seemed immune. Really, the forecast when they were being rolled out in early last year was a reaction initially, but with an understanding that the real impacts wouldn't be felt until 3rd quarter of '25.
At this point, it clearly has played out that way in the larger economy, but maybe it is finally catching up to the markets (?). And given that this is an unknown, but still an ever-present fear, markets are just hesitant to buy now.
This is probably being felt more in the tech heavy nasdaq just because it tends to be a bit more "richly valued" leading up to this.
EDIT: Additionally, the media has just hammered the run-away AI bubble narrative to death for the last 3 or 4 months, and even those investors hiding under a rock somewhere have to have had it creating fear in their hearts and wallets. The market news has gone mainstream and one might reasonably expect that to carry over into market trends.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
Also, FWIW, I finally completed my analysis of my past returns year by year, and in 2022, my return for my brokerage account was -18.8% compared to the S&P500's -18.1%. I don't want to say too much, but I have beaten the S&P500 every other year starting in 2020. Does that make me good?
It might make you good but the legendary Flagpole was as good as it gets. He beat the Dow 35 out of 36 years - which is about 1 in 6 billion - but he won't tell us how he calculates his portfolio performance. He refuses to add dividends to the Dow's performance and refuses any inquiries to how he calculates the Dow's performance.
Also, FWIW, I finally completed my analysis of my past returns year by year, and in 2022, my return for my brokerage account was -18.8% compared to the S&P500's -18.1%. I don't want to say too much, but I have beaten the S&P500 every other year starting in 2020. Does that make me good?
It might make you good but the legendary Flagpole was as good as it gets. He beat the Dow 35 out of 36 years - which is about 1 in 6 billion - but he won't tell us how he calculates his portfolio performance. He refuses to add dividends to the Dow's performance and refuses any inquiries to how he calculates the Dow's performance.
As i recall it, he was comparing his portfolio performance including dividend reinvestment against the Dow excluding dividends.
When we pointed out that this amounted to an apples to oranges comparison, and he was not using the same standards, he insisted that he would compute his portfolio anyway he wanted to.
That's what it boils down to, though it took pages and pages to come to that realization.
Walked away from LRC once his wife found out how he was spending time in retirement while she continued to work.
That would be good advice for you too.
For most of our 51 years of marriage my wife was stay at home. Benefits for her, benefits for me. Besides, I mostly avoid droning on this site like a lunatic.
Look at the holdings of the top index funds and the top 10 are almost always composed of the Mag 7 and a few others like Broadcom and Eli Lilly.
That was my point, there are no actionable indicators. Every year Wall Street marks up the next year’s projection, then fills in the blank of how you get there.
Generally Flagpole voiced good investment advice. I told him that many times. Don’t disagree with him on principle, though.
Agreed, but he was too rigid and didn't acknowledge that some other investment strategies could be not only profitable, but could even outperform the one he was pushing.
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