Down goes the Dow

I was wondering the same thing, and checked, but found that santa rally is usually considered the five days prior to the new year and about a week or two into the new year, so not there yet. In the mean time, maybe we could just lean on the adage 'stocks always go up.' (footnote to the Professor here, as would be wise to do).

In a more general sense, remember how in April when tarrifs were imposed, and many pundits were saying the real effects won't be felt and known until the fall and winter. The markets shook it off, as we know. Well, maybe what's happening now is exactly what they were forecasting (?).

I'd say that, coupled with fund managers wanting to lock in gains from a rather good year, and the media beating to death this fear of AI driven valuations is creating selling among the general public holding stocks/mutual funds.

Understanding the overbuild on AI and depreciation risk is key.

Any bets on whether the jobs/CPI reports will *actually* come out this week?

Sounds like it will be coming out, and that's tomorrow and Thursday, but will be a bit of mish mash with the previously unreleased Oct. reports mixed in, and perhaps some gaps.

Who knows how it will be received. I mean, bad numberrs might boost the market because they would suggest that the Fed is more likely to be pro cutting rates more aggressively and/or sooner.

Sounds reasonable to me. And hardly controversial.

I wet my feet with a lot of tech. and communication companies in the late 90s and early 00's, and all but a few are gone - most get bought up I think or Chap. 11.

That's fine. That doesn't mean there isn't some good investments to be made on them in the mean time.

I also know the head of one of these, and the owner as well. They made out really well for their efforts, having been bought out eventually by one of the big players. The person who ran the business in this area never worked again, and I believe they made sufficient compensation for their part to make that possible.

Gamification = lemonade stand economy

Interesting chart, but I'm not sure how much it really means. I have no data to back this up, but I would imagine a much higher percentage of people owned or had wealth in homes in the past than today, and I would also imagine a much higher percentage of people today invest in the stock market than 25+ years ago. Again, it's interesting to look at and think about, but it could have more to do with the way the world is now in the 21st century in general rather than being a bear market indicator. It could be that too, but I'm just not confident about that.

More from that tweet and some of the comments:

Cassandra Unchained
@michaeljburry
When looking at any chart purporting to show correlation as causation, alternative explanations must be explored.
Very long term charts are preferred because time takes care of many valid alternative explanations as period-specific trees are seen from the perspective above a forest.
In this case I think the chart explains the situation today really well. After nearly a decade of zero interest rates, $trillions in pandemic helicopter cash money, the greatest inflation in 50 years, and a new paradigm of higher Treasury rates for the first time in 50 years, stocks have emerged victorious even over home prices that rose 50%.
Reasons for this are many but certainly include the gamification of stock trading, the nations gambling problem due to its own gamification, and a new “AI” paradigm backed by $trillions of ongoing planned capital investment backed by our richest companies and the political establishment.
What could go wrong?

Commenter saying basically exactly what I said

lynchbages
@lynchbages
No man can step in the same river twice. Different man, different river.
Like many chart overlays, this purports to tell us something. But (as Dr. Burry surely knows) the composition of household investment has changed dramatically over the past 75 years. IRAs/401ks vs corporate pensions to cite one issue. And the character of Real Estate as a percentage of household net worth has likely changed substantially as well due in part to demographics. Not to say that equities aren't expensive, but there's a big apples to oranges element to this chart and I'm skeptical of its predictive value.

“the composition of household investment has changed dramatically over the past 75 years”

Yet one of the periods noted in the chart was less than 25 years ago. People have been lulled into believing nothing matters. Every skeptic can be explained away by the new era of gamification.

What are. you talking about?

"Gamification " - I even looked it up.

I get it that that bimbo is throwing the term around.

CG2 raises some good points. And this isn't hard to understand.

Homes have become increasingly unattainable. It is all over the news now for years and you can't escape it.

Stock market participation is up now because pensions are a thing of the past, hardly ever used anymore, and in its place are 401k's and the like: self-directed investments and Roth IRAs, etc. If you missed that, you haven't been paying attention. At all. Period.

Maybe the sky is falling, and maybe it might even happen this time, becuase we have been getting told this now for longer than I can remember. But if it is, I don't think it's because of gamification, whatever the hell that is supposed to mean.

But hey, if it get clicks, more power to them.

Believe whatever you want, it’s free.

The median 401(k) balance varies significantly by age, but generally increases as people get older, with recent data (late 2024/2025) showing figures like around $1,900 for those in their 20s, $40,000 for 35-44 year olds, and nearly $95,000 for those 55-64, with the median offering a better view of typical savings than the average due to high earners skewing averages upwards.

Yeah, i read a lot about this. THe numbers are not encouraging at all. Should be better prepared for retirement, don't you think?

Stuff like this is interesting to me because I had about $100,000 in investments by the time I was 29-30, and it was all just from a regular guy working hard and saving as much as possible. I didn't even have a high income job or anything. I just lived very frugally, and I started investing when I was 24... It seems absolutely insane to me so many people are 40+ years old and have almost nothing built up, even though I know it's reality for a lot of people. Personally, I would be absolutely terrified if I was 55+ and didn't have at least a couple hundred thousand, but I guess that's just me. Humans in general are very bad at delaying gratification for goals that are years or decades away.