POTO,
So, what other than the direction of the market the last three weeks, supports your view? And other than the 13,000 mark, which I still have 11 months to go, where have I been wrong?
Igy
POTO,
So, what other than the direction of the market the last three weeks, supports your view? And other than the 13,000 mark, which I still have 11 months to go, where have I been wrong?
Igy
Ok, other than that.
I soiled myself.
You should have bought depends.
Soilent green is people.
Burt Lancaster....
Here is a free tip...
"Buy low and sell high".
It works really well.
Pointing his obviously troubling outlook:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
For Photo,
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/wall-streets-latest-bounce-ostrich-economics-at-work/Love,
Igy
Why would anyone take investment advice from a proven loser?
ahem
ok boys, the weekend is over, time to get serious.
My favorite bit of news today - Weight Watchers - a stock all but given up for dead, is up 68% in the premarket - instead of going out of business, Oprah bought a stake.
Which is nice and all, but the beauty is the potential of this one to be one of the great short squeezes - 74% of the float is short, and it would take 14 days to cover.
I used to live in that world, and I guarantee 100 portfolio managers are feeling the monster of doom right behind them right now - this thing has no reason to fall at this point. They'll all try to get out at once.
Ach, I actually feel a little bad about this - 68% is a massive move and people are going to be hurting. But that's short selling.
It happens everyday, even at near market highs including dividends, last fifteen years only 4% annualized returns. Wall Streets recommendations not so accurate. Buy, buy, buy not always right, right, right.
This past week saw international stock markets continue to rise from the pullback we saw over the summer, rewarding investors with a long-term strategy. US jobs figures showed continued strength remaining near historic lows, though inflation remains subdued, both in the US and in many developed countries.
Disappointing earnings releases from Walmart and Netflix have attracted headlines. Walmart’s stock had its worst decline in 25 years; down almost 10% on Wednesday. It’s worth noting that since 1980, 320 companies have been removed from the S&P 500 due to business distress according to JP Morgan research (find the full report linked below), and looking at the broader Russell 3000 index, 40% of stocks have seen a decline of 70% or more from their peak value.
The J.P. Morgan research suggests that, despite the gloomy statistics surrounding individual stocks, the prospects for tracking an index have historically been superior to the outcome of owning many individual stocks. This research suggests that historically, the returns to individual companies do not follow stock indexes as closely as one might expect. Despite the disappointing data on the performance of lagging stocks, benchmark global stock returns have been attractive in most periods of a decade or more. This is possible because only a small proportion of companies (about 6-8% of companies in most sectors) enjoy extremely high returns, while, on the other hand, a large number of companies lag the index. Statistically speaking, if you are attempting to pick stocks, you’re far more likely to pick a loser than a winner.
Of course, this distribution of company returns such as this creates yet another problem for stock pickers. It means that missing out on just a small handful of strongly performing stocks can materially hurt your returns. This may be one reason why 7 out 10 US active funds underperform their benchmarks on a 10 year view according to the S&P Dow Jones SPIVA Scorecard for 2014. It’s one reason why we believe tracking an index offers a better proposition than trying to beat it, and why a concentrated position in a single stock could be a risk to your portfolio.
FutureAdvisor wrote:
This past week saw international stock markets continue to rise from the pullback we saw over the summer, rewarding investors with a long-term strategy. US jobs figures showed continued strength remaining near historic lows, though inflation remains subdued, both in the US and in many developed countries.
Disappointing earnings releases from Walmart and Netflix have attracted headlines. Walmart’s stock had its worst decline in 25 years; down almost 10% on Wednesday. It’s worth noting that since 1980, 320 companies have been removed from the S&P 500 due to business distress according to JP Morgan research (find the full report linked below), and looking at the broader Russell 3000 index, 40% of stocks have seen a decline of 70% or more from their peak value.
The J.P. Morgan research suggests that, despite the gloomy statistics surrounding individual stocks, the prospects for tracking an index have historically been superior to the outcome of owning many individual stocks. This research suggests that historically, the returns to individual companies do not follow stock indexes as closely as one might expect. Despite the disappointing data on the performance of lagging stocks, benchmark global stock returns have been attractive in most periods of a decade or more. This is possible because only a small proportion of companies (about 6-8% of companies in most sectors) enjoy extremely high returns, while, on the other hand, a large number of companies lag the index. Statistically speaking, if you are attempting to pick stocks, you’re far more likely to pick a loser than a winner.
Of course, this distribution of company returns such as this creates yet another problem for stock pickers. It means that missing out on just a small handful of strongly performing stocks can materially hurt your returns. This may be one reason why 7 out 10 US active funds underperform their benchmarks on a 10 year view according to the S&P Dow Jones SPIVA Scorecard for 2014. It’s one reason why we believe tracking an index offers a better proposition than trying to beat it, and why a concentrated position in a single stock could be a risk to your portfolio.
...and weight watchers is a double. Up 100% in a day.
You don't see that very often.
ouch time
agip,
Bubble vision stock Valeant Pharma (VRX) down from 8/6 high of $263.81 to $160.91 today. Ouch-e-wa-wa!
Igy
Igy I'm not citing WTW as an example of market overpessimism - just sort of marveling at the massive wrongness the shorts were on this one stock.
A short squeeze is one of man's most amazing creations.
now up 115%!
Although WTW is trading at around 71 x regular volume - it might not have one of those weeklong squeeze fests. The shorts might be able to get out today. Although some people inevitably wait and say "let's cover tomorrow - it'll fall back" so that provides some lasting buying pressure. 70% of the float is short!
The greatest squeeze I've ever heard of was VW in 2008 - that one was megasize and in retrospect predictable. It briefly made VW the most most valuable company in the world. BIllions and billions of dollars. Euros.
https://www.quora.com/What-are-some-of-the-greatest-short-squeezes-ever