From Burry on NVDA chip residual value:
-
00
-
More:00
-
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Market keeps on trucking along ...
JPMorgan sees S&P 500 reaching 7,500 in 2026 — or surging past 8,000 if the Fed keeps cutting rates
JPMorgan's (JPM) top stock market strategists think 2026 will be another good year for US investors.
The firm's equity strategy team, led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, set a year-end price target of 7,500 for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) in 2026.
Should the Federal Reserve continue cutting interest rates, however, the bank thinks the S&P 500 could surpass 8,000 in the year ahead."Despite AI bubble and valuation concerns, we see current elevated multiples correctly anticipating above-trend earnings growth, an AI capex boom, rising shareholder payouts, and easier fiscal policy (i.e. [One Big Beautiful Bill Act])," the firm wrote in a note to clients published Tuesday.
"More so, the earnings benefit tied to deregulation and broadening AI-related productivity gains remain underappreciated."
JPMorgan's 7,500 call for next year is primarily supported by expected earnings growth of between 13% and 15% over the next two years. In the third quarter, S&P 500 companies grew earnings by 13.4% from the prior year, according to FactSet data.
The firm's baseline outlook also sees the Fed cutting rates two more times — markets were pricing in an 85% chance the Fed cuts rates next month as of Wednesday morning — before an extended pause. An improving inflation outlook that prompts more rate cuts is what JPMorgan sees catalyzing a rise toward, and above, 8,000 for the benchmark index.20 -
Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Market keeps on trucking along ...
JPMorgan sees S&P 500 reaching 7,500 in 2026 — or surging past 8,000 if the Fed keeps cutting rates
JPMorgan's (JPM) top stock market strategists think 2026 will be another good year for US investors.
The firm's equity strategy team, led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, set a year-end price target of 7,500 for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) in 2026.
Should the Federal Reserve continue cutting interest rates, however, the bank thinks the S&P 500 could surpass 8,000 in the year ahead."Despite AI bubble and valuation concerns, we see current elevated multiples correctly anticipating above-trend earnings growth, an AI capex boom, rising shareholder payouts, and easier fiscal policy (i.e. [One Big Beautiful Bill Act])," the firm wrote in a note to clients published Tuesday.
"More so, the earnings benefit tied to deregulation and broadening AI-related productivity gains remain underappreciated."
JPMorgan's 7,500 call for next year is primarily supported by expected earnings growth of between 13% and 15% over the next two years. In the third quarter, S&P 500 companies grew earnings by 13.4% from the prior year, according to FactSet data.
The firm's baseline outlook also sees the Fed cutting rates two more times — markets were pricing in an 85% chance the Fed cuts rates next month as of Wednesday morning — before an extended pause. An improving inflation outlook that prompts more rate cuts is what JPMorgan sees catalyzing a rise toward, and above, 8,000 for the benchmark index.Nice to hear a more mainstream forecast from such an established and respected source!
Those projections would mean, based on today's market close of the S&P 500 index, at almost 10% gain, and if more rate cuts next year, a - get this - 17% gain!
Something exciting to look forward to, for sure.
00 -
Reminder, analyst forecasts of S&P 500 back in 2008 were nearly all wildly optimistic
Note, the year started at around 1400 and ended around 900 (I am eyeballing a graph, those aren't exact).
I pulled this from this old article:
Bull talk
*The most bullish '08 forecast comes from Jason Trennert of Strategas Research Partners. His thesis: We won't get a recession. Therefore, any weakness in profit growth will be offset by a swelling of P-E ratios. The bottom line: With the Fed lowering rates, investors will be willing to pay more for every $1 of corporate earnings.His prediction:*1680
Bear talk
*The most conservative forecast comes from Abhijit Chakrabortti of Morgan Stanley. His thesis: Profit growth estimates are way too high. Pesky inflation pressures will make it tougher for the Fed to lower rates aggressively. Add to that negative news on the global growth story. The bottom line: Stock drivers stall out. His prediction:*1520
The in-betweens
1675 is the prediction from Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs; and Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1625 is the prediction of Tom McManus, Banc of America Securities
1590 is the prediction from Thomas Lee, JPMorgan Chase; and Hugh Johnson, Johnson Illington Advisors
1580 is the prediction from Rod Smith, Wachovia Securities
1575 is the prediction from Stuart Freeman, A.G. Edwards
1525 is the prediction from Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch
The index broke the 7-year-old record high in May. It set nine records before topping out at 1565.15 on Oct. 9.^From Reddit
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.10 -
Bitcoin back above $90,000….adding to my SOXS and SPSX shorts….will revisit SMST below $50, if we get there…
00 -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Reminder, analyst forecasts of S&P 500 back in 2008 were nearly all wildly optimistic
Note, the year started at around 1400 and ended around 900 (I am eyeballing a graph, those aren't exact).
I pulled this from this old article:Bull talk
*The most bullish '08 forecast comes from Jason Trennert of Strategas Research Partners. His thesis: We won't get a recession. Therefore, any weakness in profit growth will be offset by a swelling of P-E ratios. The bottom line: With the Fed lowering rates, investors will be willing to pay more for every $1 of corporate earnings.His prediction:*1680
Bear talk
*The most conservative forecast comes from Abhijit Chakrabortti of Morgan Stanley. His thesis: Profit growth estimates are way too high. Pesky inflation pressures will make it tougher for the Fed to lower rates aggressively. Add to that negative news on the global growth story. The bottom line: Stock drivers stall out. His prediction:*1520
The in-betweens
1675 is the prediction from Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs; and Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1625 is the prediction of Tom McManus, Banc of America Securities
1590 is the prediction from Thomas Lee, JPMorgan Chase; and Hugh Johnson, Johnson Illington Advisors
1580 is the prediction from Rod Smith, Wachovia Securities
1575 is the prediction from Stuart Freeman, A.G. Edwards
1525 is the prediction from Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch
The index broke the 7-year-old record high in May. It set nine records before topping out at 1565.15 on Oct. 9.^From Reddit
Last year the analysts' forecasts were all wildly pessimistic and so too with their forecasts for this year. If fact over the last 15 years most analysts' forecasts have been wildly pessimistic. It has been best to ignore their forecasts.
00 -
Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Reminder, analyst forecasts of S&P 500 back in 2008 were nearly all wildly optimistic
Note, the year started at around 1400 and ended around 900 (I am eyeballing a graph, those aren't exact).
I pulled this from this old article:Bull talk
*The most bullish '08 forecast comes from Jason Trennert of Strategas Research Partners. His thesis: We won't get a recession. Therefore, any weakness in profit growth will be offset by a swelling of P-E ratios. The bottom line: With the Fed lowering rates, investors will be willing to pay more for every $1 of corporate earnings.His prediction:*1680
Bear talk
*The most conservative forecast comes from Abhijit Chakrabortti of Morgan Stanley. His thesis: Profit growth estimates are way too high. Pesky inflation pressures will make it tougher for the Fed to lower rates aggressively. Add to that negative news on the global growth story. The bottom line: Stock drivers stall out. His prediction:*1520
The in-betweens
1675 is the prediction from Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs; and Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1625 is the prediction of Tom McManus, Banc of America Securities
1590 is the prediction from Thomas Lee, JPMorgan Chase; and Hugh Johnson, Johnson Illington Advisors
1580 is the prediction from Rod Smith, Wachovia Securities
1575 is the prediction from Stuart Freeman, A.G. Edwards
1525 is the prediction from Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch
The index broke the 7-year-old record high in May. It set nine records before topping out at 1565.15 on Oct. 9.^From Reddit
Last year the analysts' forecasts were all wildly pessimistic and so too with their forecasts for this year. If fact over the last 15 years most analysts' forecasts have been wildly pessimistic. It has been best to ignore their forecasts.
I looked at one of your analysts highlighted by you, Richard Bernstein of Merrill Lynch, and all of his recent predictions have been way off. I will choose to avoid these "experts" especially those who are big on actively managed funds. That is a losing strategy.
00 -
Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Reminder, analyst forecasts of S&P 500 back in 2008 were nearly all wildly optimistic
Note, the year started at around 1400 and ended around 900 (I am eyeballing a graph, those aren't exact).
I pulled this from this old article:Bull talk
*The most bullish '08 forecast comes from Jason Trennert of Strategas Research Partners. His thesis: We won't get a recession. Therefore, any weakness in profit growth will be offset by a swelling of P-E ratios. The bottom line: With the Fed lowering rates, investors will be willing to pay more for every $1 of corporate earnings.His prediction:*1680
Bear talk
*The most conservative forecast comes from Abhijit Chakrabortti of Morgan Stanley. His thesis: Profit growth estimates are way too high. Pesky inflation pressures will make it tougher for the Fed to lower rates aggressively. Add to that negative news on the global growth story. The bottom line: Stock drivers stall out. His prediction:*1520
The in-betweens
1675 is the prediction from Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs; and Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1625 is the prediction of Tom McManus, Banc of America Securities
1590 is the prediction from Thomas Lee, JPMorgan Chase; and Hugh Johnson, Johnson Illington Advisors
1580 is the prediction from Rod Smith, Wachovia Securities
1575 is the prediction from Stuart Freeman, A.G. Edwards
1525 is the prediction from Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch
The index broke the 7-year-old record high in May. It set nine records before topping out at 1565.15 on Oct. 9.^From Reddit
Last year the analysts' forecasts were all wildly pessimistic and so too with their forecasts for this year. If fact over the last 15 years most analysts' forecasts have been wildly pessimistic. It has been best to ignore their forecasts.
In 2008 the S&P 500 was at around 1,300. Today it is +$6,800.
Some years were better than others, but overall, being well invested in it was very profitable.
That yileds better than 10% avg. annual yield, and that's not bad. With Dividend reinvestment, it would of course be much better yet.
Let's not lose sight of the big picture.
00 -
Sally Vix wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Last year the analysts' forecasts were all wildly pessimistic and so too with their forecasts for this year. If fact over the last 15 years most analysts' forecasts have been wildly pessimistic. It has been best to ignore their forecasts.
I looked at one of your analysts highlighted by you, Richard Bernstein of Merrill Lynch, and all of his recent predictions have been way off. I will choose to avoid these "experts" especially those who are big on actively managed funds. That is a losing strategy.
Knew him in college. He's gone on to be very successful.
00 -
seattle prattle wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Last year the analysts' forecasts were all wildly pessimistic and so too with their forecasts for this year. If fact over the last 15 years most analysts' forecasts have been wildly pessimistic. It has been best to ignore their forecasts.
In 2008 the S&P 500 was at around 1,300. Today it is +$6,800.
Some years were better than others, but overall, being well invested in it was very profitable.
That yileds better than 10% avg. annual yield, and that's not bad. With Dividend reinvestment, it would of course be much better yet.
Let's not lose sight of the big picture.
Stock market returns since 2008
If you invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2008, you would have about $648.35 at the end of 2025, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 548.35%, or 11.22% per year.
This lump-sum investment beats inflation during this period for an inflation-adjusted return of about 330.87% cumulatively, or 8.66% per year.
If you used dollar-cost averaging (monthly) instead of a lump-sum investment, you'd have $831.55.10 -
seattle prattle wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
I looked at one of your analysts highlighted by you, Richard Bernstein of Merrill Lynch, and all of his recent predictions have been way off. I will choose to avoid these "experts" especially those who are big on actively managed funds. That is a losing strategy.
Knew him in college. He's gone on to be very successful.
He has done quite well, especially for being blind. Did you go to Michigan, Seattle?
00 -
Sally Vix wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Knew him in college. He's gone on to be very successful.
He has done quite well, especially for being blind. Did you go to Michigan, Seattle?
I think you may be talking of the Rich Bernstein who is a Justice of Michigan Supreme Court, not the Merril Lynch one. So, no to the Michigan State.
00 -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Reminder, analyst forecasts of S&P 500 back in 2008 were nearly all wildly optimistic
Note, the year started at around 1400 and ended around 900 (I am eyeballing a graph, those aren't exact).
I pulled this from this old article:Bull talk
*The most bullish '08 forecast comes from Jason Trennert of Strategas Research Partners. His thesis: We won't get a recession. Therefore, any weakness in profit growth will be offset by a swelling of P-E ratios. The bottom line: With the Fed lowering rates, investors will be willing to pay more for every $1 of corporate earnings.His prediction:*1680
Bear talk
*The most conservative forecast comes from Abhijit Chakrabortti of Morgan Stanley. His thesis: Profit growth estimates are way too high. Pesky inflation pressures will make it tougher for the Fed to lower rates aggressively. Add to that negative news on the global growth story. The bottom line: Stock drivers stall out. His prediction:*1520
The in-betweens
1675 is the prediction from Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs; and Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1625 is the prediction of Tom McManus, Banc of America Securities
1590 is the prediction from Thomas Lee, JPMorgan Chase; and Hugh Johnson, Johnson Illington Advisors
1580 is the prediction from Rod Smith, Wachovia Securities
1575 is the prediction from Stuart Freeman, A.G. Edwards
1525 is the prediction from Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch
The index broke the 7-year-old record high in May. It set nine records before topping out at 1565.15 on Oct. 9.^From Reddit
I was going to say something similar. There have been a number of times now in the ~15 years I've been following the market closely that all the analysts were WAY off with their predictions. While I consider them interesting to look at, I would not give them much weight.
Still feelings like we have more downside in the next few months, personally, but we will see.
00 -
CG 2 wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Reminder, analyst forecasts of S&P 500 back in 2008 were nearly all wildly optimistic
Note, the year started at around 1400 and ended around 900 (I am eyeballing a graph, those aren't exact).
I pulled this from this old article:Bull talk
*The most bullish '08 forecast comes from Jason Trennert of Strategas Research Partners. His thesis: We won't get a recession. Therefore, any weakness in profit growth will be offset by a swelling of P-E ratios. The bottom line: With the Fed lowering rates, investors will be willing to pay more for every $1 of corporate earnings.His prediction:*1680
Bear talk
*The most conservative forecast comes from Abhijit Chakrabortti of Morgan Stanley. His thesis: Profit growth estimates are way too high. Pesky inflation pressures will make it tougher for the Fed to lower rates aggressively. Add to that negative news on the global growth story. The bottom line: Stock drivers stall out. His prediction:*1520
The in-betweens
1675 is the prediction from Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs; and Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1625 is the prediction of Tom McManus, Banc of America Securities
1590 is the prediction from Thomas Lee, JPMorgan Chase; and Hugh Johnson, Johnson Illington Advisors
1580 is the prediction from Rod Smith, Wachovia Securities
1575 is the prediction from Stuart Freeman, A.G. Edwards
1525 is the prediction from Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch
The index broke the 7-year-old record high in May. It set nine records before topping out at 1565.15 on Oct. 9.^From Reddit
I was going to say something similar. There have been a number of times now in the ~15 years I've been following the market closely that all the analysts were WAY off with their predictions. While I consider them interesting to look at, I would not give them much weight.
Still feelings like we have more downside in the next few months, personally, but we will see.
CEO Jensen Huang Just Delivered Fantastic News for Nvidia Investors
Key Points
Nvidia is sold out of its data center chips.
The company expects demand to continue rising throughout 2030.Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) seems like it has delivered a constant string of positive news for investors over the past few years. CEO Jensen Huang just delivered another piece of fantastic news for Nvidia shareholders, and potentially quelled the fears of investors who are concerned we're in an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.
Nvidia stock still looks quite attractive even following strong third-quarter earnings, and I think it's a great stock to buy now, especially with a visionary CEO like Huang at the helm.
Nvidia is sold out of data center GPUs
In its Q3 earnings release, CEO Jensen Huang stated, "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out." That's huge news for Nvidia shareholders, as it shows that demand still outpaces supply. When that occurs, Nvidia can maintain pricing power, as it controls the stream of one of the hottest products in the world.Additionally, Nvidia exceeded its own expectations for the quarter. Management gave guidance of $54 billion for Q3, but Nvidia blew those forecasts out of the water. It delivered $57 billion in revenue and gave projections for Q4 revenue of $65 billion. Most of that growth came on the back of its data center division, which encompasses the graphics processing units (GPUs) and other equipment needed to run artificial intelligence workloads. Data center revenue was $51.2 billion, up 66% from last year's total.
Another huge story Nvidia revealed is that its leading Blackwell chips are now entirely made in America, with the chips coming from Taiwan Semiconductor's Arizona facility. This helps Nvidia avoid tariff burdens and control its supply chain more tightly.Nvidia's valuation
With a fast-growing stock like Nvidia, using trailing earnings metrics isn't a smart idea, as it includes quarters where it was significantly smaller. Instead, I prefer to use forward-facing metrics, although there is some danger in this because it uses projections instead of actual reported results. However, it's the best tool we have to measure a rapid grower like Nvidia.
Despite claims that Nvidia's stock is expensive and overvalued, it's really not. Nvidia trades for 26.5 times next year's earnings, which places it in the same ballpark as other big tech companies.30 -
As the expression goes, Stock markets climb a wall of worry
Well, so it seems as today's the NY TImes draws to our attention: "Late Rally Pushes Stocks Back Near Record High. A midmonth stumble, driven by worries about the frenzy around artificial intelligence, was reversed as investors inched back into stocks this week."
Hard to believe that the S&P 500 right back up to approximately its record high. And the Nasdaq just a few percent short of that!
I just wouldn't trust the doomsday projectionists. They've been wrong so many times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/28/business/stock-markets-november-sp500.html
00 -
Bitcoin having quite a bit of a drop today, though clawed a little bit back during the course of the day. Generally downward trend for about a month now.
Nasdaq and S&P 500 generally holding onto their gains over the last week.
Closing out the month, they both were about flat.
Nvidia had a good day.
00 -
Strategy having a tough time. Instead of buying more Saylor is selling to raise cash for the preferred dividend payment late month end.
00 -
I read Andrew Ross Sorkin’s Too Big to Fail over a decade ago. Wife was asking my Christmas wishes which included his new book 1929. I broke into my gift early and read the Prologue last night that ended with these two paragraphs:
”We all love a good story, a concise explanation of how the world works. Temptation has driven human folly for centuries, whether the serpent in the Garden of Eden or the market mania of crypto currency or artificial intelligence. Each wave seduces us into thinking that we’ve learned from history and, this time, we can’t be fooled.
Then it happens again. This is how it happened in 1929.”
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.10
What People Are Talking About On LetsRun
No top threads at the moment. Check back soon.