Since we are in full disclosure mode, I was even at yesterday’s NASDAQ low on all SOXS, tried to sell two lots up 40% on limit orders, but did not execute. Closed down 8% on all at today’s close. Now add to the losses aftermarket on NVDA results. I have an aftermarket buy limit order in.
My hunch going forward is that after tomorrow's opening bounce, we'll see some profit taking, and perhaps relatively quickly (by mid-morning). Also shorts piling in.
Then back to fear mode, exacerbated by increasing unease about interest rate cuts before the end of the year, and even more bubble concerns due to this bounce, and the fact that with this late in the quarter earnings announcement, all the news is out (therefore, sell the news).
Was this a surprise? I wouldn't think so given the news from Microsoft, Apple, Google, etc. had given about strong increases in their AI spending going forward when they each announced earnings over the last few weeks.
I put my limit order on SOXS at $3.80, now a bounce off that. Not worth it for me without a significant drop. I would not be surprised either way, really. Still believe much interconnectedness in AI with higher than reality expectations. Not afraid to lose money on my bet.
Negative view on NVDA results, which have been discounted here.
$NVDA Accounts Receivable grew by $5.58B QOQ. Take away growth in AR and Revenue misses by $3.49 billion. Another manufactured beat. pic.twitter.com/hTDdZ6Tcqk
Nvidia has finally declared victory over chip smuggling — using a truly innovative accounting trick.
This quarter, Singapore — the global rerouting hotspot, the sensitive country that has received a lot of attention and about which Nvidia has been asked repeatedly — suddenly… https://t.co/tB3TSBL7Bupic.twitter.com/05CbkU4vxt
The idea of a useful life for depreciation being longer because chips from more than 3-4 years ago are fully booked confuses physical utilization with value creation. Just because something is used does not mean it is profitable. GAAP refers to economic benefits. Airlines keep…
My hunch going forward is that after tomorrow's opening bounce, we'll see some profit taking, and perhaps relatively quickly (by mid-morning). Also shorts piling in.
Then back to fear mode, exacerbated by increasing unease about interest rate cuts before the end of the year, and even more bubble concerns due to this bounce, and the fact that with this late in the quarter earnings announcement, all the news is out (therefore, sell the news).
Was this a surprise? I wouldn't think so given the news from Microsoft, Apple, Google, etc. had given about strong increases in their AI spending going forward when they each announced earnings over the last few weeks.
I put my limit order on SOXS at $3.80, now a bounce off that. Not worth it for me without a significant drop. I would not be surprised either way, really. Still believe much interconnectedness in AI with higher than reality expectations. Not afraid to lose money on my bet.
I can see that.
I'm a long term investor so totally different set of considerations at play there.
As for where it's headed. I heard this BBC interview with Google CEO Sundar Pichai since that was the big news media buzz yesterday, and that made sense to me - AI is and will continue to be epically big and transformative, though it is entirely possible that there may also be some overreach in projections, expenditures, and build-out.
Headline: "Google CEO: "No company is going to be immune" if AI bubble bursts"
Unraveling of the black magic behind Nvidia earnings of rising Supply and the AI boom — revealing how private credit, BDCs, and megacap data-center debt built the illusion
From Sean Tuffy today, in response to FT Alphaville's "Who is OpenAI's auditor?". Michael Burry has also asked the same ? on X.
"Maybe it’s just because I’m older but the current moment in markets really just seems to be like a greatest hit album of all the past frauds. Doesn’t seem like there’s any originality at all, sad!"
I was busy moving when I saw you ask when to exit a short. Maybe use 20 day-50 day moving average crosses. There is a danger of being whipsawed.
In regards to Burry, and the AI bears, agree something is not right: maybe it is Jensen’s black leather jacket, selling to China via Singapore, SPVs like Blue Owl, Oracle’s CDS, Sam Altman’s deception of Open AI, or simply how AI is caring the market via huge amounts of spending. Just seems weird to me.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
In regards to Burry, and the AI bears, agree something is not right: maybe it is Jensen’s black leather jacket, selling to China via Singapore, SPVs like Blue Owl, Oracle’s CDS, Sam Altman’s deception of Open AI, or simply how AI is caring the market via huge amounts of spending. Just seems weird to me.
I really am so tired of these market bears. How difficult is it to come out year after year after year and say the market is going to collapse and when it doesn't you just go back and wait to announce your prediction for the following year. These people have been wrong fro 15 years so let's stop giving them any credence.. They are frauds. Yes, frauds. They bring nothing to the table. Just doomsday promulgations that never come to fruition. Frauds.
In regards to Burry, and the AI bears, agree something is not right: maybe it is Jensen’s black leather jacket, selling to China via Singapore, SPVs like Blue Owl, Oracle’s CDS, Sam Altman’s deception of Open AI, or simply how AI is caring the market via huge amounts of spending. Just seems weird to me.
I really am so tired of these market bears. How difficult is it to come out year after year after year and say the market is going to collapse and when it doesn't you just go back and wait to announce your prediction for the following year. These people have been wrong fro 15 years so let's stop giving them any credence.. They are frauds. Yes, frauds. They bring nothing to the table. Just doomsday promulgations that never come to fruition. Frauds.
My opinion is you have been sucked into the Era of Fraud.
I really am so tired of these market bears. How difficult is it to come out year after year after year and say the market is going to collapse and when it doesn't you just go back and wait to announce your prediction for the following year. These people have been wrong fro 15 years so let's stop giving them any credence.. They are frauds. Yes, frauds. They bring nothing to the table. Just doomsday promulgations that never come to fruition. Frauds.
My opinion is you have been sucked into the Era of Fraud.
What do you call a projection that hasn't been realized yet in 8 or more years?
Actually you do have gains, you have dividend income paid out during this time period. Of course if you reinvest automatically then you do not, but then the gain listed here is understated.
Agreed and my argument has never been against stocks or passive investing. My argument is that at this valuation the 10 year expected return in stocks is quite low, on the high side dividend income only. Hey if you are young and can truly stay invested when down 50%, then good for you. If you are 60 and allocated to 60/40 stock/bond portfolio, plan on working longer.
Igy
The above post was made 8 years ago, on 5/23/17.
The S&P 500 is up +178% since then, which calls into question the projection made by the poster, and certainly higher than "dividend income".
Here is the graph depicting the rise of the S&P 500 duting that period, not including dividends:
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Agreed and my argument has never been against stocks or passive investing. My argument is that at this valuation the 10 year expected return in stocks is quite low, on the high side dividend income only. Hey if you are young and can truly stay invested when down 50%, then good for you. If you are 60 and allocated to 60/40 stock/bond portfolio, plan on working longer.
Igy
The above post was made 8 years ago, on 5/23/17.
The S&P 500 is up +178% since then, which calls into question the projection made by the poster, and certainly higher than "dividend income".
Here is the graph depicting the rise of the S&P 500 duting that period, not including dividends:
I will give you a comment, the Republicans that you hate so much passed a tax cut 12/2017 that boosted S&P 500 EPS 10-20%, and cut individual rates the same. The National Debt doubled in the intervening period.
Yours is a totally disingenuous and nasty post.
Based on relatively current information, you have been nothing but wrong the last three weeks.
BREAKING: The $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Just Collapsed
Last night at 4pm EST, something unprecedented happened. Nvidia stock rallied 5% on earnings, then crashed into negative territory within 18 hours. Wall Street algorithms detected what humans couldn’t: the numbers don’t… pic.twitter.com/uW4UL5eQ8F
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