Down goes the Dow

“Mean reversion: The market initially rewards big-spending “growth” firms but later penalizes poor returns on that capital.”

“And fwiw, Igy, you were saying the same thing in 2017 and maybe you might let us know how well those projections aged...”

Yet you never seem to draw the connection between $38 Trillion in debt, inflation, and the K shape economy.

As far as my life, I have done quite well following my belief system, both for myself, my family, and those I interact with. If that bothers you, it is your problem, not mine.

It's not so simple. I can say that because I've lived it for the last 25 years. But since you won't believe me, check this out from my AI inquiry. It is spot-on and insightful, frankly.

In short, Means Reversion is less apllicable recently than historically, and less so for the market segment like that of the Mag 7 and Big Tech companies.

Which just supports my assertion that it is different this time, at least for this sector.

“Regime Shifts: Central bank policies, such as quantitative easing (pre-2022), and major economic events (e.g., the 2008 crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic) have influenced market dynamics, potentially causing "regime shifts" in valuations and affecting the speed and predictability of mean reversion. The "mean" itself has generally been a moving target, trending upwards over time.

In essence, mean reversion remains a valid long-term principle in finance, but its application requires a deep understanding of changing market conditions, asset types, and the appropriate time horizons.”

OK, I’ll buy the above, in terms of explaining how we got here, but not how it gets resolved.

And I will fully admit that the future is not written in stone, esp. at these valuations.

Enough has been written about this to stun an ox, so not to belabor it more.

It's already a success, and one of historic measure. Period. And that is regardless of what happens henceforward.

My hope is that, on the downside, when it does occur, it is gradual and more of a correction than anything else. But I also feel that the exact opposite - a sizable surge - is also possible.

You already posted someone on X linking to this article on Friday. I read the article on Thursday when George Pearkes linked to it.

Gee, then why do you suppose that Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, among others, are drastically increasing their capital expenditures in that area?

Just a small blunder by a few companies that can afford to lose tens of billions?

GIve me a break.

I don’t understand why you guys get so worked up with each other. Igy’s opinion has no bearing on yours and vice versa. Nor mine on anyone’s. Somebody holding a different view is not a personal affront.

Do you realize this is a major argument for stock buybacks.

Image:i.imgflip.com/aaxznm.jpg

Fair point, So I will tell you.

Because he has a fairly extensive history on this very thread of spouting the same thing and being proven terribly wrong, time and time again.

Yet he fails to acknowledge those mistakes, and he just marches on day after day and year after year, saying the same thing in error.

So, maybe I get a little impatient hearing it. And I do admit that the future is not known, but we do know he has been wrong.

He advised against investing as far back as like 7 or 8 years ago when I mentioned I was taking or adding positions in Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, etc. Trust me, I have pulled up the very exchanges here on this thread, and it's all there.

And they have performed "marvellously!", by the way.

Igy is on here day to day giving his doomsday predictions for the markets. He has been doing this for 15 years and never acknowledges that the market has been the best investment for anyone for the last 15 to 30 years. Some of us have grown wearying of his doomsday predictions when it never happens. He forever clings to John Hussman who is the worst investor of all time.

Well, you, Sally and agip also have extensive histories of spouting the same thing over the life of the thread. The advantage you have is that the bull case is always the more likely outcome. Until it’s not.

It fascinates me to see evidently seasoned investors ignore the possibility of a very significant correction or crash. But I can’t see getting myself worked up about that; your opinions and estimation of the odds of various investing outcomes don’t offend me. I just find them interesting, and something to chew on.

The responses to my challenge of the always bullish view have been telling. As if nothing bad has happened during the years I have posted here. Shall I list them? Perhaps number one has been the incestuous relationship between the Fed and Treasury, and the inflation that has damaged everyone but the investor class.

Trump thinks it is hot.

Fifteen years ago you were a very confused male posting as Sally Vix, harassing other posters, and this thread had not started. All of which begs the a question why someone with a common male first name posts as “Sally Vix?” Porn star?

I am not speaking of the group, only for myself.

I haven't spouted a bullish forecast. I repeatedly say that I don't definitively know if we are headed up and down.

I do share that I am rather consistently "in the market". So I suppose that reflects a certain bias, but I absolutely do not pretend to know where it is headed either in the short term or the long.

That is a major difference between myself and others here.

I post a fair amount of market news, much of which is positive/bullish. The reader may take from that what they will. I don't tell them how to interpret it.

With that said, how long do we have to hear of a crash that just does not seem to happen before someone speaks up and metaphorically offers that the empreror has no clothes?

I say that only for one reason - to have believed that for all these years results in an epic missed opportunity (i.e.: market avoidance), and I find that very misguided and unfortunate, frankly.