I wrote a post but then got permanently (temporarily) banned, I think due to me mentioning a certain asset class that ends in "coin." I think? Apparently if we say that word on here we get banned.
Anyway, what I don't understand is that pretty much everyone recognizes tech and especially AI is a bubble, yet the market continues to go higher and higher. Who is even putting money in the market at this point? Not me. The market is at all time highs and so is gold. Meanwhile even as someone who makes reasonable okay money, I've started going through my grocery list and seeing ways to trim down costs because of how expensive everything has gotten... There are people out there making 18-25 dollars per hour. How are these people even surviving? I can't imagine this can continue a whole lot longer.
I wrote a post but then got permanently (temporarily) banned, I think due to me mentioning a certain asset class that ends in "coin." I think? Apparently if we say that word on here we get banned.
Anyway, what I don't understand is that pretty much everyone recognizes tech and especially AI is a bubble, yet the market continues to go higher and higher. Who is even putting money in the market at this point? Not me. The market is at all time highs and so is gold. Meanwhile even as someone who makes reasonable okay money, I've started going through my grocery list and seeing ways to trim down costs because of how expensive everything has gotten... There are people out there making 18-25 dollars per hour. How are these people even surviving? I can't imagine this can continue a whole lot longer.
Bet you anything Trump pivots as soon as the grumbling gets too loud and his channel starts souring on his plan. Cue Professor Ratchet Phd to enter saying we've seen this all before...
Why aren't you talking about the predictions of John Hussman last year when he said the market would collapse but instead it went to record highs? Was he wrong.
I've started going through my grocery list and seeing ways to trim down costs because of how expensive everything has gotten...
It’s really quite shocking to look at the total when we come out of the grocery store these days. We count ourselves lucky that we have inflation-indexed pension income adequate to cover basic lifestyle expenses so it’s only our savings being used for discretionary stuff (mainly travel) that’s exposed to inflation. I know not many folks can say tye same. My advice in this matter is… marry well. 🙂
On a somewhat related note, there remain places where cost of living remains much more affordable. We were recently in a few Eastern European countries and apart from the flights to get there, the costs were dirt cheap. As one example, a typical nice brunch that might cost about $30-40 USD set us back about $13-14. By contrast, a similar brunch in Iceland earlier in the year cost about $80-85.
I've started going through my grocery list and seeing ways to trim down costs because of how expensive everything has gotten...
It’s really quite shocking to look at the total when we come out of the grocery store these days. We count ourselves lucky that we have inflation-indexed pension income adequate to cover basic lifestyle expenses so it’s only our savings being used for discretionary stuff (mainly travel) that’s exposed to inflation. I know not many folks can say tye same. My advice in this matter is… marry well. 🙂
On a somewhat related note, there remain places where cost of living remains much more affordable. We were recently in a few Eastern European countries and apart from the flights to get there, the costs were dirt cheap. As one example, a typical nice brunch that might cost about $30-40 USD set us back about $13-14. By contrast, a similar brunch in Iceland earlier in the year cost about $80-85.
Also, apartment rentals in several eastern European cities and towns ranged from a low of 40 euros per night to a high of 70. That’s about $45-85/night for pretty comfortable apartments in historic centres.
It’s really quite shocking to look at the total when we come out of the grocery store these days. We count ourselves lucky that we have inflation-indexed pension income adequate to cover basic lifestyle expenses so it’s only our savings being used for discretionary stuff (mainly travel) that’s exposed to inflation. I know not many folks can say tye same. My advice in this matter is… marry well. 🙂
On a somewhat related note, there remain places where cost of living remains much more affordable. We were recently in a few Eastern European countries and apart from the flights to get there, the costs were dirt cheap. As one example, a typical nice brunch that might cost about $30-40 USD set us back about $13-14. By contrast, a similar brunch in Iceland earlier in the year cost about $80-85.
Also, apartment rentals in several eastern European cities and towns ranged from a low of 40 euros per night to a high of 70. That’s about $45-85/night for pretty comfortable apartments in historic centres.
Oh, one other observation… payment for apartment rentals in four of six places was… “please leave cash on the table with the keys when you leave.” I’ve been a lot of places and had never experienced that before.
I've started going through my grocery list and seeing ways to trim down costs because of how expensive everything has gotten...
It’s really quite shocking to look at the total when we come out of the grocery store these days. We count ourselves lucky that we have inflation-indexed pension income adequate to cover basic lifestyle expenses so it’s only our savings being used for discretionary stuff (mainly travel) that’s exposed to inflation. I know not many folks can say tye same. My advice in this matter is… marry well. 🙂
On a somewhat related note, there remain places where cost of living remains much more affordable. We were recently in a few Eastern European countries and apart from the flights to get there, the costs were dirt cheap. As one example, a typical nice brunch that might cost about $30-40 USD set us back about $13-14. By contrast, a similar brunch in Iceland earlier in the year cost about $80-85.
Once a week my wife gives me a shopping list for Costco and Walmart. Lately the dollars allocated to Walmart have been growing. The 2.8% inflation adjustment for Social Security will not make much headway against increasing costs.
This post was edited 11 minutes after it was posted.
Why aren't you talking about the predictions of John Hussman last year when he said the market would collapse but instead it went to record highs? Was he wrong.
I will post, just for you, Hussman’s next comment. To reinforce your bearish nightmare scenario I include this latest addition.
David Einhorn: "This remains the most expensive market we have experienced, & we don’t see a better option than continuing to be cautious.... When the tide turns, it does so quickly & without warning. Even 25 years later, it’s still not clear why the internet bubble popped when it did. Our view is that it was due to the last buyer buying & the last short seller covering—a phenomenon that is very difficult to time."
Why aren't you talking about the predictions of John Hussman last year when he said the market would collapse but instead it went to record highs? Was he wrong.
I will post, just for you, Hussman’s next comment. To reinforce your bearish nightmare scenario I include this latest addition.
David Einhorn: "This remains the most expensive market we have experienced, & we don’t see a better option than continuing to be cautious.... When the tide turns, it does so quickly & without warning. Even 25 years later, it’s still not clear why the internet bubble popped when it did. Our view is that it was due to the last buyer buying & the last short seller covering—a phenomenon that is very difficult to time."
John Hussman Foresees a Potential Market Crash FacebookTwitterLinkedInEmail The Wealth AdvisorContributor May 30, 2024 Current all-time highs in the stock market may suggest a vigorous bull run, yet John Hussman, a renowned bearish analyst known for accurately predicting the 2000 and 2008 financial downturns, foresees a potential crash. In his latest commentary, Hussman posits that stocks could plummet by as much as 70% in this cycle, a stark contrast to the ongoing market exuberance as the S&P 500 sets new records in 2024. According to Hussman, President of the Hussman Investment Trust, this significant run-up is primarily fueled by investor impatience and a prevalent fear of missing out—factors he believes are setting the stage for an imminent market correction. "We observed a critical mass of speculative behaviors and valuation extremes last Friday that historically signal heightened market risk," he noted in his Tuesday briefing. Hussman points out several red flags indicating potential market instability: inflated valuations, noticeable divergences across different stock sectors, and a disproportionate bullish sentiment. A particular concern he highlights is the increasing number of stocks hitting new 52-week lows despite overall market indices reaching new heights. Hussman characterizes the recent market upswing as clinging to the remnants of past market excesses rather than a genuine, sustainable bull market progression. He estimates that the S&P 500 might retreat by 50-70% by the end of this cycle, aligning long-term expected returns with more traditional stock market norms. Despite his distinctly bearish stance, where Hussman has consistently warned of a decline exceeding 60%, the broader consensus among leading Wall Street strategists remains optimistic, with predictions of the S&P 500 maintaining levels above 5,000 throughout 2024. This optimism is partly driven by an improved macroeconomic landscape compared to the early 2023 predictions of a looming recession. Hussman has consistently made headlines with his predictions of severe market corrections and anticipates a decade of negative returns for equities. Even as the market continues to surge, he persists with his predictions of a looming severe downturn. In his analysis, Hussman references his firm's most trusted metric, the ratio of non-financial market capitalization to corporate gross value-added, which currently surpasses the peak levels seen in 1929, before the Dow collapsed by 89%. He also notes that the standard S&P 500 price to forward operating earnings multiple is at an elevation only seen around the peaks of 2000 and 2022. Hussman concludes, "This period since early 2022 appears to be the elongated climax of one of the greatest speculative bubbles in U.S. history."
Why aren't you talking about the predictions of John Hussman last year when he said the market would collapse but instead it went to record highs? Was he wrong.
I will post, just for you, Hussman’s next comment. To reinforce your bearish nightmare scenario I include this latest addition.
David Einhorn: "This remains the most expensive market we have experienced, & we don’t see a better option than continuing to be cautious.... When the tide turns, it does so quickly & without warning. Even 25 years later, it’s still not clear why the internet bubble popped when it did. Our view is that it was due to the last buyer buying & the last short seller covering—a phenomenon that is very difficult to time."
This is true, but one has to adjust to the mass mindset. What worked yesterday will not work today or tomorrow, especially in the era of forever QE. The last time John Hussman got it correct was over 16 years ago, probably the main reason he is no longer managing a billion-dollar fund.
I will post, just for you, Hussman’s next comment. To reinforce your bearish nightmare scenario I include this latest addition.
David Einhorn: "This remains the most expensive market we have experienced, & we don’t see a better option than continuing to be cautious.... When the tide turns, it does so quickly & without warning. Even 25 years later, it’s still not clear why the internet bubble popped when it did. Our view is that it was due to the last buyer buying & the last short seller covering—a phenomenon that is very difficult to time."
This is true, but one has to adjust to the mass mindset. What worked yesterday will not work today or tomorrow, especially in the era of forever QE. The last time John Hussman got it correct was over 16 years ago, probably the main reason he is no longer managing a billion-dollar fund.
I can’t disagree, certainly remarkable, and glad I am no longer in the business of advising.
“Anyway, what I don't understand is that pretty much everyone recognizes tech and especially AI is a bubble, yet the market continues to go higher and higher. Who is even putting money in the market at this point?”
I believe there are a few genuine skeptics. The general investing public is on autopilot. Sure, they may pay lip service to the bubble narrative, but do nothing to mitigate the risk.
“Anyway, what I don't understand is that pretty much everyone recognizes tech and especially AI is a bubble, yet the market continues to go higher and higher. Who is even putting money in the market at this point?”
I believe there are a few genuine skeptics. The general investing public is on autopilot. Sure, they may pay lip service to the bubble narrative, but do nothing to mitigate the risk.
The market tanked 4 or 5 years ago during Covid and look at how quickly it rebounded. I think even if the market dropped 30 to 40% you would have many buying up shares to take advantage of the low prices. The market just seems very resilient these days.
“Anyway, what I don't understand is that pretty much everyone recognizes tech and especially AI is a bubble, yet the market continues to go higher and higher. Who is even putting money in the market at this point?”
I believe there are a few genuine skeptics. The general investing public is on autopilot. Sure, they may pay lip service to the bubble narrative, but do nothing to mitigate the risk.
The market tanked 4 or 5 years ago during Covid and look at how quickly it rebounded. I think even if the market dropped 30 to 40% you would have many buying up shares to take advantage of the low prices. The market just seems very resilient these days.
Agree and letting the IRA $$ run upwards. Trying to avoid single stock overloaded in AI so went with SMH and have been very pleased with returns. With a trailing stop just in case market tanks. Oh and have next 5 years expenses covered in cash position so I have time to ride out a big correction. Less than 2 years away from having to take RMD's.
I've started going through my grocery list and seeing ways to trim down costs because of how expensive everything has gotten...
It’s really quite shocking to look at the total when we come out of the grocery store these days. We count ourselves lucky that we have inflation-indexed pension income adequate to cover basic lifestyle expenses so it’s only our savings being used for discretionary stuff (mainly travel) that’s exposed to inflation. I know not many folks can say tye same. My advice in this matter is… marry well. 🙂
On a somewhat related note, there remain places where cost of living remains much more affordable. We were recently in a few Eastern European countries and apart from the flights to get there, the costs were dirt cheap. As one example, a typical nice brunch that might cost about $30-40 USD set us back about $13-14. By contrast, a similar brunch in Iceland earlier in the year cost about $80-85.
I started seeing the cost to fill up the tank of the rental car with gas in Iceland and I started suspecting some kind of conversion rate rip-off that you hear about, but that wasn't the case. It was just really expensive, like the meals.
as sfor this country, you hear how people shop for mark-downs and sales much more commonly now. I have to admit, there's a couple of big purchases that I'm putting off until the Black Friday mark-downs.
Good thing the markets..... (Omg, did I just say that?)
It’s really quite shocking to look at the total when we come out of the grocery store these days. We count ourselves lucky that we have inflation-indexed pension income adequate to cover basic lifestyle expenses so it’s only our savings being used for discretionary stuff (mainly travel) that’s exposed to inflation. I know not many folks can say tye same. My advice in this matter is… marry well. 🙂
On a somewhat related note, there remain places where cost of living remains much more affordable. We were recently in a few Eastern European countries and apart from the flights to get there, the costs were dirt cheap. As one example, a typical nice brunch that might cost about $30-40 USD set us back about $13-14. By contrast, a similar brunch in Iceland earlier in the year cost about $80-85.
Once a week my wife gives me a shopping list for Costco and Walmart. Lately the dollars allocated to Walmart have been growing. The 2.8% inflation adjustment for Social Security will not make much headway against increasing costs.
Costco once per week! A feat like that - I have newfound respect for a man who can pull that off. Whoa!