Down goes the Dow

Made some on that trade this morning.

From Matt Levine today;

Open image

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-10-06/openai-is-good-at-deals?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc1OTc4MTQ3MSwiZXhwIjoxNzYwMzg2MjcxLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUM1EwSFpHUEw0R0EwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJEREY0ODJCODQyREM0MTk0QkU2MUFGRjVFMTE2Njg1NSJ9.TSR-99ixKbcLN0_FEssyi_tOAUozD9YvjT-bep8v39Y&leadSource=uverify%20wall

The big issue beyond AI:

https://x.com/alifarhat79/status/1975610992051822812?s=61

The Nasdaq is up about 2,000% over the last 25 years. Did he predict that? Or does he just predict the market tanking year after year after year?

The tangled web of funding and customer is suspicious.

https://x.com/peter_atwater/status/1975902500965536202?s=61

I won't click on any blind tweets and your post is exactly that - a blind link that makes no reference to what it is about.

Funny post - nicely done.

This morning when it was around 195 I was going to make a post teasing Igy on how it was closing in on 200 but got distracted.

But it is still double what it was not very long ago.

Hey Salvatore, Red River Rivalry is tomorrow! Could it be Arch's last start? I always go to Costco while the game is on, the store is nearly empty, especially for a Saturday afternoon!

Marko has been screwing up a lot lately. He calls it for 120 - means it goes up to 250.

Marko Kolanovic will leave his role as JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, ending a 19-year stint that culminated in a series of mistimed calls on the US stock market.
Kolanovic, also the bank’s co-head of global research, was among the few bearish strategists left on Wall Street, having recently forecast that the S&P 500 would tumble by almost 25 per cent from current levels by year-end.

Once dubbed “the man who moves markets” by CNBC and “Gandalf” by Bloomberg, Kolanovic’s star has fallen in recent years on a series of contrarian and ultimately mistimed calls on the direction of the S&P 500.

Two years ago he advised clients to take an overweight position in US stocks during the deep market sell-off, before switching to recommending an underweight position in early 2023. The bank has stuck with that position ever since, despite the blue-chip index having surged more than 40 per cent since then.

Kolanovic — who graduated from New York University with a PhD in theoretical high-energy physics and went on to work at Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch before joining JPMorgan — will now be “exploring other opportunities”, according to a person familiar with the situation. Kolanovic did not respond to a request for comment.
Hussein Malik will become sole head of global research, having previously been co-head of the department with Kolanovic, a spokesperson for the bank said.
Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, JPMorgan’s chief global equity strategist, will now lead markets strategy in a new role encompassing equities, cross-asset and macroeconomic research. Steve Dulake and Nick Rosato will co-lead “fundamental research”, a newly branded team that brings credit and equity research under one leadership structure, the bank confirmed.

A JPMorgan biography shared with the Financial Times praised Kolanovic for his “timely and accurate short-term forecasts of stock market returns”, noting that he was inducted into the Institutional Investor Hall of Fame in 2020 “following 10 consecutive years of #1 rankings”.
He and other JPMorgan strategists reiterated their bearish outlook in a note to clients last week, highlighting what they describe as an “awful” lack of breadth in the US stock market.
“Since last year, we have argued that a soft-landing outcome [for the US economy] would be difficult to engineer. Instead, a no-landing would be more likely with higher-for-longer rates until growth surrenders to restrictive monetary policy and softening macro backdrop,” the team wrote in late June.

Despite their preference for high-quality, large-cap stocks, the team admitted they had “under-appreciated the resiliency of [the Magnificent Six] in terms of price momentum and earnings revisions”, in a reference to the handful of stocks that have driven the vast majority of the S&P 500’s recent gains.
The index this week rose to a fresh all-time high. The S&P 500 equal-weighted index, however, is largely unchanged over the past two-and-a-half years, while the small-cap Russell 2000 has added just 0.3 per cent in 2024.

Marko is "exploring other opportunities" - meaning he got fired. LOL.

I can't believe Texas is favored. Arch has to be very nervous about tomorrow.

Costcos around here, especially on Saturday, are never nearly empty. Always jam-packed.