Your annual return in 2020 was 70% while the annual return for the S & P was about 16%. Yeah, that is really believable. You say you don't want to share too much about yourself here. You haven't shared ANYTHING with us except your returns. You haven't shared your name or your investments or anything else. You are sounding a heck of a lot like Flagpole who never told us his investments or even how he calculated his annual returns. Give us 20 of your random investments and we can very easily determine if you actually got a 70% return in 2020.
90% of funds underperformed against the S & P over the last 10 years but you every year beat it by around 8% each and every year and expect to beat it by even more in the coming year.
Oh, beating the S & P by 55% in 2020 ... LOL.
It was about 70%. I could screenshot my performance chart over the past 10 years and blur out the exact numbers etc and post it here, but that's not really the point. I don't blame you for not believing me and am not trying to convince you, though a person would have had to be an absolute mor0n to have not beat the market that year by a significant amount. I have mostly been trying to figure out where I stand relative to others, especially professionals. You basically saying there's no way possible I've done what I have has let me know where I stand, so thanks.
To your other points, for one, I don't owe you anything. Stop throwing a tantrum over this. Why would you think it's remotely likely I would just post all my trades and positions on here? Did Colonel Sanders print his fried chicken recipe on the back of the box? It's proprietary.
I did not beat the market every single year by 8%. I have averaged around that. I don't think I said I beat it every single year by 8%, but if I did, I misspoke.
Anyway, I don't think I'll write any more about myself on here. I enjoy hearing the different viewpoints, and it seems like me sharing some things has derailed the thread some. We're supposed to be talking about the markets, not about whether or not I'm a phony. Whether I am or not shouldn't really affect anyone else here anyway.
Why so secretive? Colonel Sanders had a reason for not revealing his recipe. We have no idea who you are. What are you hiding? We don't care who you are. Throw us some crumbs. List 10 of your in investments. We want to be rich too.
Your annual return in 2020 was 70% while the annual return for the S & P was about 16%. Yeah, that is really believable. You say you don't want to share too much about yourself here. You haven't shared ANYTHING with us except your returns. You haven't shared your name or your investments or anything else. You are sounding a heck of a lot like Flagpole who never told us his investments or even how he calculated his annual returns. Give us 20 of your random investments and we can very easily determine if you actually got a 70% return in 2020.
90% of funds underperformed against the S & P over the last 10 years but you every year beat it by around 8% each and every year and expect to beat it by even more in the coming year.
Oh, beating the S & P by 55% in 2020 ... LOL.
It was about 70%. I could screenshot my performance chart over the past 10 years and blur out the exact numbers etc and post it here, but that's not really the point. I don't blame you for not believing me and am not trying to convince you, though a person would have had to be an absolute mor0n to have not beat the market that year by a significant amount. I have mostly been trying to figure out where I stand relative to others, especially professionals. You basically saying there's no way possible I've done what I have has let me know where I stand, so thanks.
To your other points, for one, I don't owe you anything. Stop throwing a tantrum over this. Why would you think it's remotely likely I would just post all my trades and positions on here? Did Colonel Sanders print his fried chicken recipe on the back of the box? It's proprietary.
I did not beat the market every single year by 8%. I have averaged around that. I don't think I said I beat it every single year by 8%, but if I did, I misspoke.
Anyway, I don't think I'll write any more about myself on here. I enjoy hearing the different viewpoints, and it seems like me sharing some things has derailed the thread some. We're supposed to be talking about the markets, not about whether or not I'm a phony. Whether I am or not shouldn't really affect anyone else here anyway.
It was about 70%. I could screenshot my performance chart over the past 10 years and blur out the exact numbers etc and post it here, but that's not really the point. I don't blame you for not believing me and am not trying to convince you, though a person would have had to be an absolute mor0n to have not beat the market that year by a significant amount. I have mostly been trying to figure out where I stand relative to others, especially professionals. You basically saying there's no way possible I've done what I have has let me know where I stand, so thanks.
To your other points, for one, I don't owe you anything. Stop throwing a tantrum over this. Why would you think it's remotely likely I would just post all my trades and positions on here? Did Colonel Sanders print his fried chicken recipe on the back of the box? It's proprietary.
I did not beat the market every single year by 8%. I have averaged around that. I don't think I said I beat it every single year by 8%, but if I did, I misspoke.
Anyway, I don't think I'll write any more about myself on here. I enjoy hearing the different viewpoints, and it seems like me sharing some things has derailed the thread some. We're supposed to be talking about the markets, not about whether or not I'm a phony. Whether I am or not shouldn't really affect anyone else here anyway.
Why so secretive? Colonel Sanders had a reason for not revealing his recipe. We have no idea who you are. What are you hiding? We don't care who you are. Throw us some crumbs. List 10 of your in investments. We want to be rich too.
You need to purchase a ticket to one of his seminars. Operators are standing by, have your credit card ready!
Why so secretive? Colonel Sanders had a reason for not revealing his recipe. We have no idea who you are. What are you hiding? We don't care who you are. Throw us some crumbs. List 10 of your in investments. We want to be rich too.
You need to purchase a ticket to one of his seminars. Operators are standing by, have your credit card ready!
Not trying to sell anything and would never host a seminar. I am considering doing this professionally, but it's mostly about keeping my own intellectual property to myself. Not exactly a rare concept.
You need to purchase a ticket to one of his seminars. Operators are standing by, have your credit card ready!
Not trying to sell anything and would never host a seminar. I am considering doing this professionally, but it's mostly about keeping my own intellectual property to myself. Not exactly a rare concept.
With those kind of returns you should do very well.
You need to purchase a ticket to one of his seminars. Operators are standing by, have your credit card ready!
Not trying to sell anything and would never host a seminar. I am considering doing this professionally, but it's mostly about keeping my own intellectual property to myself. Not exactly a rare concept.
We don’t really need to know anything about you or your investments, and you don’t need us to believe you. While it’s not impossible you’re telling the truth, it’s also very unlikely. So if your claims are true, good for you, you are definitely one in a million.
On a running related note, I’ve run my fifth 5k in a year and a half in recent weeks, first at 60, and managed to sneak a bit above 82% age-graded (using 2015 WMA factors); 33 s faster than the same race a year earlier. I’m really pleased about this, and I know several of the regulars in this thread have better masters performance pedigrees.
My investments are surely doing much worse than everyone in the thread, being mostly in fixed income earning roughly 5% but with nearly no volatility, which is worth a lot to me.
I have no problem believing the claim by CG2 regarding market performance relative to the S&P 500 over the last 13 years.
Lets say he/she has a portfolio heavily weighted to Mag 7. Over the last 10 years, The Mag 7 has an annualized returns of 35% - 43% compared to the S&P500's of 11%-14%. That is an outperformance of approx. of 26% per year. So an outperformance of CG's 8% per year is not so unbelievable.
And a single year (2020) with a 70% returns (as CG2 claimed) can be easily achieved if their portfolio was extremely heavy in a stock like Tesla, which had a return of 743.1% for the year, or Nvidia which had a return of 121% for the year, or a number of other popular stocks, for that matter.
What CG2 has going for them is that a) they are fairly new to this and b) the 13 year period they have been lucky enough to partake in has been historically and usually lucrative.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Reason provided:
typos corrected, the ones I caught anyways
I have no problem believing the claim by CG2 regarding market performance relative to the S&P 500 over the last 13 years.
Lets say he/she has a portfolio heavily weighted to Mag 7. Over the last 10 years, The Mag 7 has an annualized returns of 35% - 43% compared to the S&P500's of 11%-14%. That is an outperformance of approx. of 26% per year. So an outperformance of CG's 8% per year is not so unbelievable.
And a single year (2020) with a 70% returns (as CG2 claimed) can be easily achieved if their portfolio was extremely heavy in a stock like Tesla, which had a return of 743.1% for the year, or Nvidia which had a return of 121% for the year, or a number of other popular stocks, for that matter.
What CG2 has going for them is that a) they are fairly new to this and b) the 13 year period they have been lucky enough to partake in has been historically and usually lucrative.
There's an old saying, there are 2 types of traders ( investors ), those that have been humbled and those that are about to be humbled.
For the last 10 years, XLK ( The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF ) has outperformed S&P 500 (total returns ) by 763 basis points ( 22.08% to 14.45% )!
I have no problem believing the claim by CG2 regarding market performance relative to the S&P 500 over the last 13 years.
Lets say he/she has a portfolio heavily weighted to Mag 7. Over the last 10 years, The Mag 7 has an annualized returns of 35% - 43% compared to the S&P500's of 11%-14%. That is an outperformance of approx. of 26% per year. So an outperformance of CG's 8% per year is not so unbelievable.
And a single year (2020) with a 70% returns (as CG2 claimed) can be easily achieved if their portfolio was extremely heavy in a stock like Tesla, which had a return of 743.1% for the year, or Nvidia which had a return of 121% for the year, or a number of other popular stocks, for that matter.
What CG2 has going for them is that a) they are fairly new to this and b) the 13 year period they have been lucky enough to partake in has been historically and usually lucrative.
There's an old saying, there are 2 types of traders ( investors ), those that have been humbled and those that are about to be humbled.
For the last 10 years, XLK ( The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF ) has outperformed S&P 500 (total returns ) by 763 basis points ( 22.08% to 14.45% )!
Agreed. I get that.
And to those paying attention, my first question to CG2 was how they did in the down year of 2022.
That is pertinent because particularly aggressive portfolios will often outperform markets in up years, but can get hammered in the down years.
I also qualified my last post by saying that CG2 had a short investment history, relatively (13 years), and it is often easier to get outperformance when managing smaller amounts. And of course, the fact that markets have kicked butt over the last decade doesn't hurt, either.
“On a running related note, I’ve run my fifth 5k in a year and a half in recent weeks, first at 60, and managed to sneak a bit above 82% age-graded (using 2015 WMA factors); 33 s faster than the same race a year earlier. I’m really pleased about this, and I know several of the regulars in this thread have better masters performance pedigrees.”
Congratulations.
I may have mentioned this, following the Covid shutdown, retirement, and family obligations all dampened my running. In the spring/summer of last year my running picked up after meeting a now 78 and 81 year old transplants from California. I can’t say it has really moved the racing needle, but I am getting out more. Last week I covered 26 miles, about 8 miles of it in the Foothills of Boise. Side benefit is good health, of course.
There's an old saying, there are 2 types of traders ( investors ), those that have been humbled and those that are about to be humbled.
For the last 10 years, XLK ( The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF ) has outperformed S&P 500 (total returns ) by 763 basis points ( 22.08% to 14.45% )!
Agreed. I get that.
And to those paying attention, my first question to CG2 was how they did in the down year of 2022.
That is pertinent because particularly aggressive portfolios will often outperform markets in up years, but can get hammered in the down years.
I also qualified my last post by saying that CG2 had a short investment history, relatively (13 years), and it is often easier to get outperformance when managing smaller amounts. And of course, the fact that markets have kicked butt over the last decade doesn't hurt, either.
We will see how things go over the next 5-10 years. So far I have been (mostly) right in my thinking. I plan to be more aggressive from now on because of that, so my returns could be higher. Of course in 99+ percent of cases, a more aggressive strategy performs worse over a medium-long term, but I believe I am correct in my methods. Everyone on this thread is very free to get their hopes up for my downfall though. haha.
Thank you for the polite responses, Seattle. It's best when we can all have civil dialogue here, so I appreciate it.
I have no problem believing the claim by CG2 regarding market performance relative to the S&P 500 over the last 13 years.
Lets say he/she has a portfolio heavily weighted to Mag 7. Over the last 10 years, The Mag 7 has an annualized returns of 35% - 43% compared to the S&P500's of 11%-14%. That is an outperformance of approx. of 26% per year. So an outperformance of CG's 8% per year is not so unbelievable.
And a single year (2020) with a 70% returns (as CG2 claimed) can be easily achieved if their portfolio was extremely heavy in a stock like Tesla, which had a return of 743.1% for the year, or Nvidia which had a return of 121% for the year, or a number of other popular stocks, for that matter.
PWhat CG2 has going for them is that a) they are fairly new to this and b) the 13 year period they have been lucky enough to partake in has been historically and usually lucrative.
There's an old saying, there are 2 types of traders ( investors ), those that have been humbled and those that are about to be humbled.
For the last 10 years, XLK ( The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF ) has outperformed S&P 500 (total returns ) by 763 basis points ( 22.08% to 14.45% )!
Portfolio Visualizer has been updated to 9/30. XLK's CAGR for the past 10 years is 23.14% vs 15.14% for the S&P 500. Some others; QQQ ( NASDAQ 100 ) - 20.33% and SOXX ( iShares Semiconductor ETF ) is 27.13%.
So if you've been overweight Tech, esp Semis, it's possible to achieve the numbers CG2 claims.
There's an old saying, there are 2 types of traders ( investors ), those that have been humbled and those that are about to be humbled.
For the last 10 years, XLK ( The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF ) has outperformed S&P 500 (total returns ) by 763 basis points ( 22.08% to 14.45% )!
Portfolio Visualizer has been updated to 9/30. XLK's CAGR for the past 10 years is 23.14% vs 15.14% for the S&P 500. Some others; QQQ ( NASDAQ 100 ) - 20.33% and SOXX ( iShares Semiconductor ETF ) is 27.13%.
So if you've been overweight Tech, esp Semis, it's possible to achieve the numbers CG2 claims.
Very interesting, though it appears that your post may have been been cut short mid-sentence.
I did a similar check yesterday and found that simply by modeling a portfolio more representative of the Nasdaq index as opposed to the S&P 500, the Nasdaq modeled portfolio would have an outperformance of almost 4% CAGR over the last 10-year phase, which would put CG2 well on the way to outperforming the market with their portfolio.
And another insight offered by the charts your article discloses show the Tech ETF had a best year of 56%, and The Chip Sector had an outstanding return of 67% for that year, and those are just sector ETFs. If an individual portfolio contained one or more of the high-hitting Mag 7, it is surely possible to nudge that performance up to 70% for that year.
Some other insights that may be noteworthy, there was only one year in the last 10 with a significant underperformance (2022), and the discussion points out that it was about a year for the Tech ETF to regain its former high.
And the outperformance of the Chip maker component of the sector, which has performed slightly better than the Tech Sector ETF, is underperforming the former so far this year, like it did for a few years early in the 10-year period. So it has not always been the better bet.
Fascinating stuff.
Hope you are enjoying your return to TX and getting back to the proximity of the grandkids and others.
The ratio of the US Stock Market’s Value to GDP (aka the “Buffett Indicator") has moved up to a new record high at 217%. That’s now more than 2 standard deviations above the long-term trendline.
Portfolio Visualizer has been updated to 9/30. XLK's CAGR for the past 10 years is 23.14% vs 15.14% for the S&P 500. Some others; QQQ ( NASDAQ 100 ) - 20.33% and SOXX ( iShares Semiconductor ETF ) is 27.13%.
So if you've been overweight Tech, esp Semis, it's possible to achieve the numbers CG2 claims.
Very interesting, though it appears that your post may have been been cut short mid-sentence.
I did a similar check yesterday and found that simply by modeling a portfolio more representative of the Nasdaq index as opposed to the S&P 500, the Nasdaq modeled portfolio would have an outperformance of almost 4% CAGR over the last 10-year phase, which would put CG2 well on the way to outperforming the market with their portfolio.
And another insight offered by the charts your article discloses show the Tech ETF had a best year of 56%, and The Chip Sector had an outstanding return of 67% for that year, and those are just sector ETFs. If an individual portfolio contained one or more of the high-hitting Mag 7, it is surely possible to nudge that performance up to 70% for that year.
Some other insights that may be noteworthy, there was only one year in the last 10 with a significant underperformance (2022), and the discussio seattlen points out that it was about a year for the Tech ETF to regain its former high.
And the outperformance of the Chip maker component of the sector, which has performed slightly better than the Tech Sector ETF, is underperforming the former so far this year, like it did for a few years early in the 10-year period. So it has not always been the better bet.
Fascinating stuff.
Hope you are enjoying your return to TX and getting back to the proximity of the grandkids and others.
Thanks seattle. This summer was the second longest on the road of my life. 5/21 to 9/4; the longest was when I was in Europe in 1977, 08/04-11/21. We did get to see the grandkids when we were in St John's as our visits overlapped. My poor grand-daughter got seasick on the puffin whale watch. They also came up to NJ for the Labor Day weekend.
We have sold our place and purchased a new home, still in Georgetown. My wife's knees are giving her problems and our current house has stairs,
What would you say is the significance here? Mostly that companies don't actually have money to pay shareholders? Or perhaps dividends are becoming less relevant? Perhaps the dividend yield is baked into the already high stock prices? Just thinking aloud here.
While I totally agree the market is very overvalued, I don't think the Buffett Indicator is a very good metric anymore and that it has changed over time. Fewer people invested 50 years ago. US companies were not global companies 50 years ago, not to the degree they are today anyway. More investors from around the globe are putting money into US stocks now than 50 years ago.
All that being said, I think a 20% drop in the next year is very possible, though impossible to say for sure of course.
What would you say is the significance here? Mostly that companies don't actually have money to pay shareholders? Or perhaps dividends are becoming less relevant? Perhaps the dividend yield is baked into the already high stock prices? Just thinking aloud here.
As stock moves higher the only way to compensate for the dividend yield dilution is to increase the dividend. Sally often touts the investment return from dividends, and this metric is falling.
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