"Guys that could run under that 4:15 mark are Heemeyer, Stadtlander, Kemper, Blaser, Ringert, Lucas, Cervi-Skinner, May, King, Helder, Stockett, Athay, Goss, Johnston. I feel like all of those guys already have the track marks and the cross success to do that".
Has anyone ever broke 4 minutes in Idaho at the HS level? Nathan Green ran 4 flat in 21 I think.
Regardless, 4:15 is a big ask for a few of these athletes. The CDA High School Record is 4:15.
I am looking for a sub 1:53 800 out of the May kid this year. That is doable.
CDA record has no bearing on how fast they can run. New coach.
If Lachlan May can run sub 1:53 and race like he did at Hole in the wall, he’s a sub 4:12 guy.
Sorry for multiple responses. That would give Idaho at least 4 guys that have already or will break 1:53. Blaser could do it, as well as I suspect a couple others.
"Guys that could run under that 4:15 mark are Heemeyer, Stadtlander, Kemper, Blaser, Ringert, Lucas, Cervi-Skinner, May, King, Helder, Stockett, Athay, Goss, Johnston. I feel like all of those guys already have the track marks and the cross success to do that".
Has anyone ever broke 4 minutes in Idaho at the HS level? Nathan Green ran 4 flat in 21 I think.
Regardless, 4:15 is a big ask for a few of these athletes. The CDA High School Record is 4:15.
I am looking for a sub 1:53 800 out of the May kid this year. That is doable.
CDA record has no bearing on how fast they can run. New coach.
If Lachlan May can run sub 1:53 and race like he did at Hole in the wall, he’s a sub 4:12 guy.
sub 9 is better than 4:12. How many sub 9 guys will we have this year? Everyone should try to get into Arcadia 3200s,,,
CDA record has no bearing on how fast they can run. New coach.
If Lachlan May can run sub 1:53 and race like he did at Hole in the wall, he’s a sub 4:12 guy.
sub 9 is better than 4:12. How many sub 9 guys will we have this year? Everyone should try to get into Arcadia 3200s,,,
I'm not sure who might go to Arcadia. Probably some of the CDA guys partly because they could get a solid relay in? Heemeyer should go too, as he could be in the mix up at the top.
A bit of old news, but Ringert, Stockett, and Goss all went 4:22-24 when they ran their November miles a few days after state. This is a great sign for the 1600m this year because if these guys can run in the low 4:20s with very little prep a few days after state it'll be interesting to see what they can do during the track season.
As for the 3200m, I can really only see a few guys breaking 9, but a lot more breaking 9:20. The guys I could see breaking 9 are Heemeyer, Ringert, Athay, Max CS, and maybe Cody Lucas. Guys I can see going sub 9:20 are Stockett, Anttonnen, Kemper, Helder, May, Johnston, Goss, and Ihmels. These were mostly all guys in that 9:30-9:40 that had good XC seasons that would lead me to believe that they could potentially make that jump. Staedtlander would also definitely be a contender to at least break 9:20 if he ran the 3200m seriously, but I'm not counting on that.
At some point, I think I'll do a rundown or a list of who I think will be the top 10 distance runners for this next outdoor season.
I think that Heemeyer won’t given the general reluctance from Rocky to travel to big meets out of the state. They went to Jesuit but I think that’s more bc the track coach scheduled it.
Stadtlander went last year, so did Boise and CDA. I would guess Ringert will try to go given that they went to Woodbridge. Athay went in the past so it wouldn’t surprise me if he did again.
I'd bet Heemeyer and a few other Rocky kids do Arcadia. The Head track coach is different than their head xc coach so the travel stuff as a team isn't relevant in that scenario.
Last year Heemeyer only had an entry time of 9:26 from his Sophomore year so the heat he would've been in was no faster than what he was able to do with the help of his teammate Tyler Sainsbury at their local invite that same weekend (9:03 3200 in Idaho). He would've been in one of those Arcadia heats that goes 9:05-9:15.
I'd bet Heemeyer and a few other Rocky kids do Arcadia. The Head track coach is different than their head xc coach so the travel stuff as a team isn't relevant in that scenario.
Last year Heemeyer only had an entry time of 9:26 from his Sophomore year so the heat he would've been in was no faster than what he was able to do with the help of his teammate Tyler Sainsbury at their local invite that same weekend (9:03 3200 in Idaho). He would've been in one of those Arcadia heats that goes 9:05-9:15.
Dude, he was top 10 at champs. They would have put him in a great heat. He was a premier runner going into the track season.
A bit of old news, but Ringert, Stockett, and Goss all went 4:22-24 when they ran their November miles a few days after state. This is a great sign for the 1600m this year because if these guys can run in the low 4:20s with very little prep a few days after state it'll be interesting to see what they can do during the track season.
As for the 3200m, I can really only see a few guys breaking 9, but a lot more breaking 9:20. The guys I could see breaking 9 are Heemeyer, Ringert, Athay, Max CS, and maybe Cody Lucas. Guys I can see going sub 9:20 are Stockett, Anttonnen, Kemper, Helder, May, Johnston, Goss, and Ihmels. These were mostly all guys in that 9:30-9:40 that had good XC seasons that would lead me to believe that they could potentially make that jump. Staedtlander would also definitely be a contender to at least break 9:20 if he ran the 3200m seriously, but I'm not counting on that.
At some point, I think I'll do a rundown or a list of who I think will be the top 10 distance runners for this next outdoor season.
I have 2 guys that I expect to make big jumps this year and be guys that end up in their top 10 in their respective events.
Sam Jensen ran sub 9:40 at Rocky's HOKA race and ran 2:00 last year. He was a 10:13 boy last spring. I think he'll be a player at 1600m and 3200m. He had a 16:49 best at Firman last year and ran 16:19 at Firman and 16:14 at NXR. He had a disappointing state cross meet, but he had a very solid season for Rocky.
The other boy that I think will make a splash at 800 or 1600m is Thomas Stevens. He was 21st at State cross, narrowly losing to Ihmels. He ran 9:47.7 at Eagle's HOKA race. He was 41st last year at State cross and was a 10:21 boy last spring with a 1:57.55 PR. Outside of the state course from last year, his best XC time in 2022 was 17:02. He ran 16:19 at State, and sub 16:30 at Firman/NXR twice.
Both got way better at cross, ran way faster at their HOKA races than they did in track, and have respectable 800m bests. Both of them have 3200m times that would put them in the top 20 returners.
Who were the freshman and sophomores who ran good times in the two mile? Was it a time trial or a race or last year?
The HOKA 2 mile that was run during XC season. According to the strava's I saw that day, there was some decent wind as well. Bolded are fresh/soph times. Non bolded are junior times. This is also leaving out Parker Goggins (incoming Junior).
9:27
9:47
10:00
10:01
10:09
10:14
10:29
10:29
10:31
10:35
10:41
10:42
Goggins is a junior right now. So he will be a senior next year
What would be your varsity and alternate predictions for boise rocky and cda next year? Do you think that rockys top 7 returners all make it or do you think another rocky guy makes it? Also how do you think wyatt carr does next year
Next year’s Top 7 roster predictions for CDA: M Cervi-Skinner, Z Cervi-Skinner, Rietze, Carr, Rohlinger, and 2 top JV freshmen (Heule / Dance).
I don’t know of any freshmen coming in that will make an impact for CDA
What I’m wondering is if someone can close the 4-5 gap for the team next year. Rohlinger seems a little far behind their top 4 nonseniors.
While Goggins is a nice piece, I'm not certain he would have ended up on the final Rocky state roster. I'm aware that he was injured and that impacted his performances later in the year, however, he was a 156 at Caldwell. If he improves the average amount from first meet to season's best for Rocky runners, that's a 162. Average performance increase would put him in the 159 average speed rating range.
It will be interesting to see if Cody Lucas underperforms at Eagle Island. As it stands today, he's the 4th returner at State and I suspect that Tuft and Carr will make the jump over him, and Reitze is a definite possibility to do so as well.
I think Rocky's style will be quite a bit different next year, at least in big meets. They'll lack a true low stick (as in less than 10 points at Firman), but I think their pack will be tighter next year and maybe a bit further up. My guess is that Tuft and Lucas will record at least a couple 180+, and they'll have 3-4 guys that record 170+ a couple of times. In other words, they'll be a very, very good team that I think will ultimately get overshadowed by CDA. I think Sheesley will record high 180's next year, and Boise has the guys to record a few in the low 170's and has the potential to upset Rocky.
What are the chances that Rocky Mountain makes NXN a year from now?
CDA returns 4 of their top 5.
Crater OR returns 4 of their top 6 + a couple of freshman that can help out next year as sophomores
Jesuit OR looked great at the beginning but based on they did the last couple of races, they probably peaked too early. But they return their 2-6.
I have 2 guys that I expect to make big jumps this year and be guys that end up in their top 10 in their respective events.
Sam Jensen ran sub 9:40 at Rocky's HOKA race and ran 2:00 last year. He was a 10:13 boy last spring. I think he'll be a player at 1600m and 3200m. He had a 16:49 best at Firman last year and ran 16:19 at Firman and 16:14 at NXR. He had a disappointing state cross meet, but he had a very solid season for Rocky.
The other boy that I think will make a splash at 800 or 1600m is Thomas Stevens. He was 21st at State cross, narrowly losing to Ihmels. He ran 9:47.7 at Eagle's HOKA race. He was 41st last year at State cross and was a 10:21 boy last spring with a 1:57.55 PR. Outside of the state course from last year, his best XC time in 2022 was 17:02. He ran 16:19 at State, and sub 16:30 at Firman/NXR twice.
Both got way better at cross, ran way faster at their HOKA races than they did in track, and have respectable 800m bests. Both of them have 3200m times that would put them in the top 20 returners.
5A District III is going to be a dog fight to get out of this year. Top 10 should go out of this district.
Putting these two guys and Tuft in, there are 11 guys under 9:50 right now. That doesn't include Sheesley or Stadtlander. Heading into last year, the 10th returner was 9:58. Accounting for those 2 and Jensen, Jensen has the 10th fastest time in the district at 9:39.
4:24 is the 10th returning time in the 1600. That doesn't have Sheesley in there. 10th returner heading into the season last year was 4:29.83. 4:24 would have been the 5th returner last year.
Ringert is the 10th returner in the 800 at 1:58.75. 4:23 boy McOmber is just behind him, but can certainly run faster. 10th going into the 2023 season was 2:00.62. Ringert would have been the 5th fastest returner last year.
Heading into last year, no school in District III returned more than 1 sub 2 boy. Rocky returns 3 this year, Boise returns 3, Centennial returns 2, and Eagle returns 2.