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  • registered

    Sally Vix

    Member since 02/01/2019.

    17,940 posts. Last post 1 month ago.
    10 months ago 07/20/2025 3:48pm EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    “On average, investors have been able to expect historically run-of-the-mill returns on the order of 10% annually when MarketCap/GVA has been close to 0.97. The current extreme stands at 3.50. One would need the S&P 500 to lose about 72% of its value to reach that run-of-the-mill valuation norm. Emphatically, that’s not a “forecast,” but it’s clearly a risk to consider.”

    —John Hussman, June Market Commentary

    For 2024 John Hussman predicted the market to drop 50- to 70%. Instead the Nasdaq was up 30%. The S & P was up 20%.

    Why Stock Market Experts Are Wrong About Market Crashes
    Naysayers get it right once and use that one event to highlight their prowess; they purposely fail to list the countless times they were wrong in the past. Moreover, experts like John Hussman fail to mention that you had listened to them. You would have been bankrupted several times over in the process. They are only standing because they conned you into paying for this crappy. However, they did not act on it; had they worked on it, the dog house would be their home.
    John Hussman, the president of the John Hussman Investment Trust, is a seasoned investor and a PhD in economics from Stanford University. He warned investors not to expect much returns from stocks or bonds and predicted that the S&P 500 would return no more than 1% on average over the next decade. He believes the current market environment is “the most broadly overvalued moment in market history” and warned of a potential 60% plunge in the stock market.
    John Hussman uses his own proprietary measure of the market, which looks at the value of all non-financial stocks relative to a specialized earnings measure called value-added. According to his analysis, the market is as overvalued as it was in 2007 and is just 5% away from its lofty valuations right before the peak in 2000.

    This is true, but one has to adjust to the mass mindset. What worked yesterday will not work today or tomorrow, especially in the era of forever QE. The last time John Hussman got it correct was over 16 years ago, probably the main reason he is no longer managing a billion-dollar fund.

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 2 days ago.
    10 months ago 07/20/2025 6:38pm EDT
    re: Sally Vix

    None of that says the market will not drop 50%, and be below current levels a decade from now. In fact, a lot of data says that is more likely.

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 2 days ago.
    10 months ago 07/20/2025 6:46pm EDT
    re: Sally Vix

    Your parroting narrative is hinged at the hip to extreme Government monetary and fiscal stimulus. The BBB is a paid in advance insurance policy on economic fragility and fake markets.

  • Sally vv

    Anonymous Poster

    10 months ago 07/20/2025 6:52pm EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    None of that says the market will not drop 50%, and be below current levels a decade from now. In fact, a lot of data says that is more likely.

    He was saying the markets would tank in 2024. Of course it didn't. It never does but you and John will keep being doomsayers year after year after. Meanwhile, the markets keep going up.

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 2 days ago.
    10 months ago 07/20/2025 8:40pm EDT
    re: Sally vv

    Sally vv wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    None of that says the market will not drop 50%, and be below current levels a decade from now. In fact, a lot of data says that is more likely.

    He was saying the markets would tank in 2024. Of course it didn't. It never does but you and John will keep being doomsayers year after year after. Meanwhile, the markets keep going up.

    Truly a miracle. As they say, like taking candy from a baby.

  • chilling with the puffins gente

    Anonymous Poster

    10 months ago 07/21/2025 9:53am EDT
    re: chilling with the puffins gente

    Re The Genius Act:

    I've been reading Ferguson's The House of Rothchild and came across this quote by Balzac, "

    All rapidly accumulated wealth is either the result of luck or discovery, or the result of legalized theft".

  • registered

    Sally Vix

    Member since 02/01/2019.

    17,940 posts. Last post 1 month ago.
    10 months ago 07/21/2025 10:32am EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Sally vv wrote:

    He was saying the markets would tank in 2024. Of course it didn't. It never does but you and John will keep being doomsayers year after year after. Meanwhile, the markets keep going up.

    Truly a miracle. As they say, like taking candy from a baby.

    You wanna talk about taking candy from a baby? - Hussman Strategic is down since its inception in 1999 around 38%. And STILL they are charging you 1.22 expense ratio annually. Meanwhile the S & P and Nasdaq are setting all-time highs since 1999. You regret buying Hussman Strategic?

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 2 days ago.
    10 months ago 07/21/2025 11:03am EDT
    re: Sally Vix

    John Hussman today:

    The Impression of Invincibility

    ”With our most reliable stock market valuation measures at the highest extremes in U.S. history, record negative readings on our most reliable “equity risk premium” gauge (estimated S&P 500 total returns vs. Treasury yields), and the narrowest junk bond risk premiums in history, it’s useful for investors to remember that a market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that is not priced to tolerate risk.

    Emphatically, nothing in our investment discipline relies on a market collapse, or even a reversion of valuations to levels anywhere near historical norms. Particularly with the hedging implementation we introduced last September, I expect it will be enough simply for the market to fluctuate.

    My impression is that the exuberance of the moment is too strong for investors to care about history. As is true in every bubble, investors are undoubtedly convinced that we’re in a new era to which history doesn’t apply.

    Investors have conflated elevated profits with technology, innovation, and hand-wavy features of a “new era.” Yet the reality is that record U.S. corporate profits and free cash flows over the past two decades have directly relied on the distortions created by “free money” policies. It’s not a theory. It’s an accounting identity.”

  • registered

    Sally Vix

    Member since 02/01/2019.

    17,940 posts. Last post 1 month ago.
    10 months ago 07/21/2025 11:05am EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    John Hussman today:

    The Impression of Invincibility

    ”With our most reliable stock market valuation measures at the highest extremes in U.S. history, record negative readings on our most reliable “equity risk premium” gauge (estimated S&P 500 total returns vs. Treasury yields), and the narrowest junk bond risk premiums in history, it’s useful for investors to remember that a market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that is not priced to tolerate risk.

    Emphatically, nothing in our investment discipline relies on a market collapse, or even a reversion of valuations to levels anywhere near historical norms. Particularly with the hedging implementation we introduced last September, I expect it will be enough simply for the market to fluctuate.

    My impression is that the exuberance of the moment is too strong for investors to care about history. As is true in every bubble, investors are undoubtedly convinced that we’re in a new era to which history doesn’t apply.

    Investors have conflated elevated profits with technology, innovation, and hand-wavy features of a “new era.” Yet the reality is that record U.S. corporate profits and free cash flows over the past two decades have directly relied on the distortions created by “free money” policies. It’s not a theory. It’s an accounting identity.”

    His golden jewel the Hussman Strategic Fund is down 30% since inception. Nothing else to say. The guy sucks as an investor guru. He sucks!

  • registered

    Sally Vix

    Member since 02/01/2019.

    17,940 posts. Last post 1 month ago.
    10 months ago 07/21/2025 11:08am EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    John Hussman today:

    The Impression of Invincibility

    ”With our most reliable stock market valuation measures at the highest extremes in U.S. history, record negative readings on our most reliable “equity risk premium” gauge (estimated S&P 500 total returns vs. Treasury yields), and the narrowest junk bond risk premiums in history, it’s useful for investors to remember that a market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that is not priced to tolerate risk.

    Emphatically, nothing in our investment discipline relies on a market collapse, or even a reversion of valuations to levels anywhere near historical norms. Particularly with the hedging implementation we introduced last September, I expect it will be enough simply for the market to fluctuate.

    My impression is that the exuberance of the moment is too strong for investors to care about history. As is true in every bubble, investors are undoubtedly convinced that we’re in a new era to which history doesn’t apply.

    Investors have conflated elevated profits with technology, innovation, and hand-wavy features of a “new era.” Yet the reality is that record U.S. corporate profits and free cash flows over the past two decades have directly relied on the distortions created by “free money” policies. It’s not a theory. It’s an accounting identity.”

    Jibberish. Total Jibberish.

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 2 days ago.
    10 months ago 07/21/2025 11:08am EDT
    re: chilling with the puffins gente

    chilling with the puffins gente wrote:

    Re The Genius Act:

    I've been reading Ferguson's The House of Rothchild and came across this quote by Balzac, "

    All rapidly accumulated wealth is either the result of luck or discovery, or the result of legalized theft".

    “When desire disagrees with judgment, there is a disease of the mind: and to make a man forget the past, and blind him to the future, is as easy as making him drunk. The impression of invincibility is disaster itself. The stronger the illusion, the greater the fall.”

    – Barbara Tuchman, The March of Folly

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 2 days ago.
    10 months ago 07/21/2025 11:13am EDT
    re: Sally Vix

    Sally Vix wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    John Hussman today:

    The Impression of Invincibility

    ”With our most reliable stock market valuation measures at the highest extremes in U.S. history, record negative readings on our most reliable “equity risk premium” gauge (estimated S&P 500 total returns vs. Treasury yields), and the narrowest junk bond risk premiums in history, it’s useful for investors to remember that a market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that is not priced to tolerate risk.

    Emphatically, nothing in our investment discipline relies on a market collapse, or even a reversion of valuations to levels anywhere near historical norms. Particularly with the hedging implementation we introduced last September, I expect it will be enough simply for the market to fluctuate.

    My impression is that the exuberance of the moment is too strong for investors to care about history. As is true in every bubble, investors are undoubtedly convinced that we’re in a new era to which history doesn’t apply.

    Investors have conflated elevated profits with technology, innovation, and hand-wavy features of a “new era.” Yet the reality is that record U.S. corporate profits and free cash flows over the past two decades have directly relied on the distortions created by “free money” policies. It’s not a theory. It’s an accounting identity.”

    Jibberish. Total Jibberish.

    “You can’t possibly call a bubble or a bust to the right day, except once every several lifetimes. What you can do, though, is to identify bubbles that eventually burst. That turns out, in the past to have been intellectually pretty straightforward. You can measure them, and all of them eventually go back to trend. And that movement from very high back to trend has always made cash look very much better for quite a few years. These are not insignificantly long periods of time. They add up to half of all the time.

    In terms of a historian, I put a lot of weight on 1929, I think it’s a wonderful example. Japan of course, the mother of all of them. It would be highly unlikely for this one to not be similar, and at or around several years in the future, 5, 10, even 15, it’s highly likely – from a historical point of view – you’ll reach a point where you would have rather been in cash.”

    – Jeremy Grantham, GMO, The Master Investor with Wilfred Frost, July 10, 2025

  • registered

    Sally Vix

    Member since 02/01/2019.

    17,940 posts. Last post 1 month ago.
    10 months ago 07/21/2025 11:15am EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Sally Vix wrote:

    Jibberish. Total Jibberish.

    “You can’t possibly call a bubble or a bust to the right day, except once every several lifetimes. What you can do, though, is to identify bubbles that eventually burst. That turns out, in the past to have been intellectually pretty straightforward. You can measure them, and all of them eventually go back to trend. And that movement from very high back to trend has always made cash look very much better for quite a few years. These are not insignificantly long periods of time. They add up to half of all the time.

    In terms of a historian, I put a lot of weight on 1929, I think it’s a wonderful example. Japan of course, the mother of all of them. It would be highly unlikely for this one to not be similar, and at or around several years in the future, 5, 10, even 15, it’s highly likely – from a historical point of view – you’ll reach a point where you would have rather been in cash.”

    – Jeremy Grantham, GMO, The Master Investor with Wilfred Frost, July 10, 2025

    Jeremy Grantham - really Iggy?

    He forecast a potential 50% drop for stocks in 2023 when the index finished up 24%.

    Dude - do better.

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 2 days ago.
    10 months ago 07/21/2025 11:41am EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1947266046404055417?s=61

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 2 days ago.
    10 months ago 07/21/2025 11:52am EDT
    re: Sally Vix

    Sally Vix wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    “You can’t possibly call a bubble or a bust to the right day, except once every several lifetimes. What you can do, though, is to identify bubbles that eventually burst. That turns out, in the past to have been intellectually pretty straightforward. You can measure them, and all of them eventually go back to trend. And that movement from very high back to trend has always made cash look very much better for quite a few years. These are not insignificantly long periods of time. They add up to half of all the time.

    In terms of a historian, I put a lot of weight on 1929, I think it’s a wonderful example. Japan of course, the mother of all of them. It would be highly unlikely for this one to not be similar, and at or around several years in the future, 5, 10, even 15, it’s highly likely – from a historical point of view – you’ll reach a point where you would have rather been in cash.”

    – Jeremy Grantham, GMO, The Master Investor with Wilfred Frost, July 10, 2025

    Jeremy Grantham - really Iggy?

    He forecast a potential 50% drop for stocks in 2023 when the index finished up 24%.

    Dude - do better.

    OK

    NVIDIA IS NOW WORTH MORE THAN... WELL, BASICALLY EVERYONE ELSE
    Nvidia’s $4T valuation isn’t just historic, it’s comically massive.
    It’s now worth more than Meta and Alphabet combined.
    More than Microsoft. More than Apple and Amazon together.
    At this point, Nvidia could probably buy Netflix, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and still have money left to build its own theme park.
    Source: Statista

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 2 days ago.
    10 months ago 07/21/2025 12:14pm EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    https://x.com/globalmktobserv/status/1947099203773079719?s=61

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 2 days ago.
    10 months ago 07/21/2025 12:18pm EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Trump Media Announces its Purchases for Bitcoin Treasury Reach $2 Billion

    Company’s Bitcoin Treasury Strategy Enabled by $3 billion in Liquid Assets
    SARASOTA, Fla., July 21, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Trump Media and Technology Group Corp. (Nasdaq, NYSE Texas: DJT) ("Trump Media" or the "Company"), operator of the social media platform Truth Social, the streaming platform Truth+, and the FinTech brand Truth.Fi, announced today that the Company has accumulated approximately $2 billion in bitcoin and bitcoin-related securities as part of its previously announced bitcoin treasury strategy.

    The holdings now comprise around two-thirds of Trump Media’s approximately $3 billion in liquid assets.

    Furthermore, approximately $300 million of additional capital has been allocated to an options acquisition strategy for bitcoin-related securities. Trump Media plans to continue acquiring bitcoin and bitcoin-related assets and to convert its options into spot bitcoin, depending on market conditions. These assets will be used by the company to generate revenues and potentially to acquire additional crypto assets.

    Trump Media's CEO and President Devin Nunes said, “We’re rigorously implementing our publicly announced strategy and fulfilling our bitcoin treasury plan. These assets help ensure our Company’s financial freedom, help protect us against discrimination by financial institutions, and will create synergies with the utility token we’re planning to introduce across the Truth Social ecosphere.”

  • registered

    seattle prattle

    Member since 10/20/2017.

    14,057 posts. Last post 10 hours ago.
    10 months ago 07/23/2025 4:44pm EDT
    re: Sally Vix

    Alphablet/Google released earnings after the bell today. Been a rocky ride- initially down over 2% AH, but trending back up and now up by a percent.

    The earnings were good, hitting numbers nicely, and only concern was increasing costs for R&D or something like that.

    Dodged that bullet.

    More to come as the other Mag 7 announce their earnings in coming days and weeks.

    EDIT: concern was rising capital expenditures. I bet that is due to all those energy centers they are investing in to support the increased demands associated with AI energy consumption.

    This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.

  • CG 2

    Anonymous Poster

    10 months ago 07/29/2025 2:39pm EDT
    re: seattle prattle

    The market keeps going up... Where is the money coming from? Margin/debt I have to think. Seems like more and more fake money is being put into the system and propping everything up. I can't really see this continuing. Either we plateau for a period of 6 months or more or experience a drop. The Shiller PE ratio is currently at a level that indicates a 30% drop is entirely possible... When the market is this overvalued, why would anyone keep dumping money into it? Gotta be better places to invest at times like these.

  • CG 2

    Anonymous Poster

    10 months ago 07/29/2025 6:08pm EDT
    re: CG 2

    CG 2 wrote:

    The market keeps going up... Where is the money coming from? Margin/debt I have to think. Seems like more and more fake money is being put into the system and propping everything up. I can't really see this continuing. Either we plateau for a period of 6 months or more or experience a drop. The Shiller PE ratio is currently at a level that indicates a 30% drop is entirely possible... When the market is this overvalued, why would anyone keep dumping money into it? Gotta be better places to invest at times like these.

    Need a subscription to read the article, so not sure what the details are, but found the headline interesting since it's exactly what I expected.

    cnbc.com
    Investors are using borrowed money to buy stocks at a pace last seen during market bubbles
    https://www.facebook.com/CNBC
    Margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange in May and June posted the fifth-largest two-month increase since 1998, according to Deutsche Bank.
    Open link
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