Down goes the Dow

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Trump says he will impose 50% tariff on copper imports

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President Donald Trump said he will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports and suggested more steep sector-specific duties are on the way.

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TIL there's a meth addict's lobby!

the amount of drug use in this nation is astonishing and, along with obesity, a main cause of the health care crisis in terms of outcomes and costs. Whole ICUs are taken up by ODs. Vast amounts of money. Not surprised there is money to made there and legislators to influence. Someone has to pay for that ICU use! (it will be taxpayers)

and now we have brazil tariffs to try to get trumper Bolsonaro out of legal trouble in his home country.

So we have a US president who declares phony emergencies so he can decide the economic fate of companies, industries and nations based on which of his pals is under arrest in other nations.

How exactly does this end well for the markets?

It was better when there were insane asylums, chain gangs, life sentences for drug dealing, and marijuana was considered a gateway drug.

It was mid90s not too long ago. Around 166 now. 250 would not surprise me.

If valuation ever matters again NVDA will be under $50.

AND the stock market keeps chugging along. Always upwards.

Pretty much all of Hussman's analysis has been garbage. How many decades has he been a Permabear?

From a year ago. Another huge whiff for Hussman.

In his latest commentary, Hussman posits that stocks could plummet by as much as 70% in this cycle, a stark contrast to the ongoing market exuberance as the S&P 500 sets new records in 2024.
According to Hussman, President of the Hussman Investment Trust, this significant run-up is primarily fueled by investor impatience and a prevalent fear of missing out—factors he believes are setting the stage for an imminent market correction. "We observed a critical mass of speculative behaviors and valuation extremes last Friday that historically signal heightened market risk," he noted in his Tuesday briefing.
Hussman points out several red flags indicating potential market instability: inflated valuations, noticeable divergences across different stock sectors, and a disproportionate bullish sentiment. A particular concern he highlights is the increasing number of stocks hitting new 52-week lows despite overall market indices reaching new heights.
Hussman characterizes the recent market upswing as clinging to the remnants of past market excesses rather than a genuine, sustainable bull market progression. He estimates that the S&P 500 might retreat by 50-70% by the end of this cycle, aligning long-term expected returns with more traditional stock market norms.

OK. One can say Hussman’s analysis is garbage with the backdrop of a now $37 Trillion deficit and continued government monetary and fiscal stimulus. Although believing there is never an end point, or that the current demand regime is not fake seems shortsighted to me.

You are not showing any John Hussman predictions?

Both NVDA and Hussman Strategic had inceptions around 1999. Since that time, here are the returns of NVDA and Hussman Strategic (roughly for the last 25 or 26 years):

Hussman Strategic - Down 38% (I think the S & P is up around 350% or so)

NVDA - UP 372,000 %.

Looks like the brilliant analyst/strategist is not so brilliant.

But I am sure he will predict a market collapse for 2026.

I have zero in Hussman funds currently. There are scores of fundamental analysts that have been wrong the last 15 years. Few could have predicted the extent and extremes of the monetary and fiscal stimulus. You could say the same about the disfunction in American society. None of it has made the quality of life better for the average American.

I am comfortable with my EM Bond CEFs that I am drawing 14% income.

Agip, see me after class.

The "scores of fundamental analysts who have been wrong the last 15 years" is why to never spend any money on "experts." Hussman is no expert. He is wrong 90% of the time. The winners in this game are not those paying money to the managers of actively managed funds who are beaten by index funds 80 to 85% of the time. No, the winners are those who buy and hold index funds and keep them forever.

So you admit that Hussman's great Strategic fund was just crap? Yes?

The consequence of your blindness to reality is everything cost more in perpetuity. So while your Nvidia has gone up in value your house and car insurance is 60% higher than it was 5 years ago. Your children, if you have them, will on average have to pay 60% of their income for housing. Or be burden by student loans for the rest of their life.

There is no pass from your vaunted S&P 500 Index Fund, though it has cushioned the blow of bad stuff.

And you were still buying Hussman Strategic as recently as a couple of years ago even though it is down 38% this century? Are you still buying that load of crap? I hope not.

NVDA never reached $200, and you never apologized. Shame on you.