Down goes the Dow

zero chance??? lol

“Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market is a book published in September 1999 by conservative syndicated columnist James K. Glassman and conservative economist Kevin Hassett, in which they argued that stocks in 1999 were significantly undervalued and concluded that there would be a fourfold market increase with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004. The book was described as the "most spectacularly wrong investing book ever". In the book, The authors argued that stocks did not have significantly greater risk than bonds in the long run and as investors came to that realization, stock prices would rise dramatically.” —Wikipedia

No, that is just the 1yr increase of the S&P500. Including dividends for something like a VOO ETF would be 13.82%.

My returns would actually be a lot higher, but I did not expect Trump to cancel all of his tariffs as soon as he announced them and figured the market would drop another 5% at the very least. Still up ~30% on the money I put in during that time when the market dropped ~20% though, so that helps. Just wish I had put in more.

Also, to be fair, my retirement accounts just track the S&P500, so my returns on them are the same as VOO, SPY, VFIAX, etc. Nothing fancy.

Okay thanks. From what I have read over the last 100 years dividends have contributed about 4% to the total overall return of the S & P. I thought that was a bit high but it was a reputable source.

have to be careful on terminology here....
the average dividend **rate** might be around 4% historically (lower the last 30 years tho)
but the share of stock total returns that have come from dividends is around 33%.
Something like 9% from price appreciation and 3% from dividends.

my math is wrong there on the last line, but the point stands in general.

I'm not sure if this is exactly right, but it is basically right. People really underestimate the value of dividends. Part of why they work so well is that you get them even during a market drop. A 2% dividend is worth a lot more during a period when the market is down 20% or more, and then this money compounds. Even after more than a decade of studying investing and getting into the math, I'm still surprised by how huge of a difference it can make to your long term returns (10+ years) by putting in even a small chunk of money during a big downturn.

I know generally we don't ask these sorts of questions, but I've just been curious, how much money are people here managing? You don't have to answer directly, but has anyone here made more than like $500,000 in a single year? $100,000? I am in my 30s so very much still building, but I did have one year where my investment returns alone were in the six figures. I feel pretty good about that.

made 6 figures shorting banks/builders back in 2008 (or whatever that year was)

Have you lost 6 figures or more shorting stuff?

honestly, no. obviously you never know what will happen but that one i felt pretty good about.

i'm actually a pretty conservative investor when it comes to the market.

hence that was the only time i hit a 6 figure home run.

mostly just bunt singles. lol

to make $500,000 in a year isn't that hard

in 2019 the SP500 was up 31%. So to make $500,000 you only had to have $1.5mn-ish in the SP500.

$1.5m is a lot of money but not rare for distance runners who went to college, worked all their lives and are in their 50s and later.

I'll say this again...don't sleep on in inflation here...among a crashed dollar and tariffs and full employment, there are strong forces for traditional inflation to build.

the fed thinks inflation will look like this:

2Q: 2.2%

3Q: 2.6%

which is a sharp uptick.

if you follow the inflation nowcast you can see the estimates of inflation steadily going up.

This isn't yet in the news...could be a source of alpha if it continues.

Warning, this may be Russian disinformation:

This is not directed towards you but shorting stocks is where you can REALLY lose your shirt. But it seems here we only hear success stories of people shorting. No one ever regales us with stories of how much money they lost.

No one talks about the money they lost on Beyond Meat or other momentum stocks.

NVDA was at 0.04 around 2000. It is now around 163. It is up about 373,000% during that time period. Most of my investments are in index funds but NVDA is my biggest single stock. Why should I not plow a huge amount more into NVDA? The chance it goes to 250, in my estimate, is much greater than it retreating to 50. Would you agree?