Lower U.S. Treasury rates are a negative for EM debt, however the continued upside down U.S. balance sheet is a minus for U.S. Dollar and a plus for EM debt. Clearly there is a lack of will to right this ship, so sticking with EM Bond CEFs for the foreseeable future. More here:
GDP estimates are falling quickly...probably good in the long run...slower growth might hold back inflation caused by the tariffs, and therefore hold down interest rates.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent on July 1, down from 2.9 percent on June 27.
Lower U.S. Treasury rates are a negative for EM debt, however the continued upside down U.S. balance sheet is a minus for U.S. Dollar and a plus for EM debt. Clearly there is a lack of will to right this ship, so sticking with EM Bond CEFs for the foreseeable future. More here:
1/lower rates = lower dollar = easier for EM nations to pay back loans denominated in the dollar
2/if US bonds are yielding less, it will send people around the world looking for more yield, so more will buy EM debt.
Not sure we are disagreeing.
No, we are not disagreeing. Engineered lower rates (Trump prodding, yield control) works for a while, but more fiscal stimulus is inflationary and undermines the Dollar (belief vulnerability U.S. economy to default). Longer term U.S. rates may move higher on default risk, but this time not affecting EM Bonds on falling Dollar.
On that note, I am confident he is beating the Dow. Very confident. In fact, a confidence factor of about 120% confident.
He has his own way of measuring things!
I had calculated a while back the probability of him beating the Dow 34 out of 35 or 36 years - don't really remember anymore - and the chance of him beating it like that had a probability of 1 out of 7 billion or so. So if everyone on the planet had a portfolio and was measuring its performance against the Dow, exactly 1 person, statistically, might have been able to do that. So Flagpole just might have been that 1 person.
Yes, and his error boiled down to first, not understanding that he was comparing his returns with dividends added in against the returns of the DJIA without dividends. It took a long time to uncover this and when it was pointed out to him repeatedly, he said he could measure his performance against the Dow any way he chose to (even though it was not an apples to apples comparison).
So, in effect, his outperformance was nothing more than a calculation error that he insisted on making and not correcting. As such, it was nothing more than a lie, and a lie coming from someone who bragged incessantly about never telling a lie.
I believe the real reason Flagpole no longer posts is his still working wife discovered what he was doing in retirement, and put his butt to work around the house.
This discussion about the markets clawing their way back to from the post election drop had me thinking that FP's investing strategy of just dollar cost averaging would have been perfectly fine through this whole thing, at least so far. So something to consider there...
I had calculated a while back the probability of him beating the Dow 34 out of 35 or 36 years - don't really remember anymore - and the chance of him beating it like that had a probability of 1 out of 7 billion or so. So if everyone on the planet had a portfolio and was measuring its performance against the Dow, exactly 1 person, statistically, might have been able to do that. So Flagpole just might have been that 1 person.
Yes, and his error boiled down to first, not understanding that he was comparing his returns with dividends added in against the returns of the DJIA without dividends. It took a long time to uncover this and when it was pointed out to him repeatedly, he said he could measure his performance against the Dow any way he chose to (even though it was not an apples to apples comparison).
So, in effect, his outperformance was nothing more than a calculation error that he insisted on making and not correcting. As such, it was nothing more than a lie, and a lie coming from someone who bragged incessantly about never telling a lie.
I totally forgot about that. Flagpole, was only looking at the appreciation in the index for the year and didn't understand that dividends paid out needed to be included for the total return for the year. When we informed him of that he doubled down and declared he would determine the total return however he pleased. To call him stubborn would be a massive understatement.
Yes, and his error boiled down to first, not understanding that he was comparing his returns with dividends added in against the returns of the DJIA without dividends. It took a long time to uncover this and when it was pointed out to him repeatedly, he said he could measure his performance against the Dow any way he chose to (even though it was not an apples to apples comparison).
So, in effect, his outperformance was nothing more than a calculation error that he insisted on making and not correcting. As such, it was nothing more than a lie, and a lie coming from someone who bragged incessantly about never telling a lie.
I totally forgot about that. Flagpole, was only looking at the appreciation in the index for the year and didn't understand that dividends paid out needed to be included for the total return for the year. When we informed him of that he doubled down and declared he would determine the total return however he pleased. To call him stubborn would be a massive understatement.
Ironic, isn't it?
Being the most vehement about never telling a lie, yet insisting on the legitamacy of an untruth in the face of irrefutable evidence.
I believe the real reason Flagpole no longer posts is his still working wife discovered what he was doing in retirement, and put his butt to work around the house.
I believe the real reason Flagpole no longer posts is his still working wife discovered what he was doing in retirement, and put his butt to work around the house.
A honey do retirement.
I really can’t say much after digging out a tree root broken sprinkler this morning. Flagpole did say after his wife retired he would likely move to warmer climes. He mentioned Burbank, California and I scoffed at the idea. Changed my opinion after a visit in April.
It seems to me that the rest of SE Asia stands to benefit from Trump's hardball stance against China. Vietnam is poised to benefit a lot because it will be easier for companies with existing manufacturing in Vietnam to expand their operations in Vietnam than to build new facilities in another SE Asian nation... and Vietnam will be having bilateral trade talks with the US in early June. Nike has the majority of its manufacturing in Vietnam already, but it has lagged behind ONON, DECK, LULU, etc. I am buying Nike now in anticipation of a short term pop in June.
I posted that back in May. I wish all my picks were as good as this one. Yesterday, the US announced a 20% tariff deal with Vietnam. I averaged into Nike at 53 to 58 starting in, IIRC, late April. Yesterday, Nike closed at 76.
On a related note, I stopped into Fleet Feet and discovered they sell Lululemon apparel. Do a lot of runners really pay $78 for a running t--shirt? It looked nice, but not $78 nicer than the free shirt I got from my last race.
I really can’t say much after digging out a tree root broken sprinkler this morning. Flagpole did say after his wife retired he would likely move to warmer climes. He mentioned Burbank, California and I scoffed at the idea. Changed my opinion after a visit in April.
What the heck made you change your mind about Burbank? Johnny Carson used to always make fun of it. I can't imagine living in LA with the traffic but living near Venice/Santa Monica wouldn't be bad.
It seems to me that the rest of SE Asia stands to benefit from Trump's hardball stance against China. Vietnam is poised to benefit a lot because it will be easier for companies with existing manufacturing in Vietnam to expand their operations in Vietnam than to build new facilities in another SE Asian nation... and Vietnam will be having bilateral trade talks with the US in early June. Nike has the majority of its manufacturing in Vietnam already, but it has lagged behind ONON, DECK, LULU, etc. I am buying Nike now in anticipation of a short term pop in June.
I posted that back in May. I wish all my picks were as good as this one. Yesterday, the US announced a 20% tariff deal with Vietnam. I averaged into Nike at 53 to 58 starting in, IIRC, late April. Yesterday, Nike closed at 76.
On a related note, I stopped into Fleet Feet and discovered they sell Lululemon apparel. Do a lot of runners really pay $78 for a running t--shirt? It looked nice, but not $78 nicer than the free shirt I got from my last race.
Nice going.
As a point of comparison, in the time period that you held the Nike stock, it outperformed the SNP 500 by about 14% and the Nasdaq by about 7%, and matched the return of a tech sector ETF overall.
The Mag 7 seems to be mixed in that same duration, with Apple greatly underperforming, but Nvidia almost doubling Nike's return, and Microsoft equalling it.
It seems to me that the rest of SE Asia stands to benefit from Trump's hardball stance against China. Vietnam is poised to benefit a lot because it will be easier for companies with existing manufacturing in Vietnam to expand their operations in Vietnam than to build new facilities in another SE Asian nation... and Vietnam will be having bilateral trade talks with the US in early June. Nike has the majority of its manufacturing in Vietnam already, but it has lagged behind ONON, DECK, LULU, etc. I am buying Nike now in anticipation of a short term pop in June.
I posted that back in May. I wish all my picks were as good as this one. Yesterday, the US announced a 20% tariff deal with Vietnam. I averaged into Nike at 53 to 58 starting in, IIRC, late April. Yesterday, Nike closed at 76.
On a related note, I stopped into Fleet Feet and discovered they sell Lululemon apparel. Do a lot of runners really pay $78 for a running t--shirt? It looked nice, but not $78 nicer than the free shirt I got from my last race.
the women on my team almost never wear race Ts to run in. They all have curated running clothes. The men...more of a mix but race Ts do make it into their mix. So yeah there is a huge market for expensive but nice running clothes.
I really can’t say much after digging out a tree root broken sprinkler this morning. Flagpole did say after his wife retired he would likely move to warmer climes. He mentioned Burbank, California and I scoffed at the idea. Changed my opinion after a visit in April.
What the heck made you change your mind about Burbank? Johnny Carson used to always make fun of it. I can't imagine living in LA with the traffic but living near Venice/Santa Monica wouldn't be bad.
I am sure I have mentioned I grew up in Pacific Palisades and my wife in Santa Monica. On this trip flew into Burbank and much nicer than I recalled, while a homeless camp was within a quarter mile of my Santa Monica hotel. Our parents complained about the communist city government in Santa Monica 50 years ago. Jane Fonda’s first husband was Chicago Seven Tom Hayden, a Santa Monica city councilman. It has only gotten worse over the decades. Pretty sad how the city has declined.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
Yes, and his error boiled down to first, not understanding that he was comparing his returns with dividends added in against the returns of the DJIA without dividends. It took a long time to uncover this and when it was pointed out to him repeatedly, he said he could measure his performance against the Dow any way he chose to (even though it was not an apples to apples comparison).
So, in effect, his outperformance was nothing more than a calculation error that he insisted on making and not correcting. As such, it was nothing more than a lie, and a lie coming from someone who bragged incessantly about never telling a lie.
I totally forgot about that. Flagpole, was only looking at the appreciation in the index for the year and didn't understand that dividends paid out needed to be included for the total return for the year. When we informed him of that he doubled down and declared he would determine the total return however he pleased. To call him stubborn would be a massive understatement.
There is clearly something legitimately wrong with him. Comes across as malignant NPD, though it's hard to diagnose someone from their online presence alone.
I totally forgot about that. Flagpole, was only looking at the appreciation in the index for the year and didn't understand that dividends paid out needed to be included for the total return for the year. When we informed him of that he doubled down and declared he would determine the total return however he pleased. To call him stubborn would be a massive understatement.
There is clearly something legitimately wrong with him. Comes across as malignant NPD, though it's hard to diagnose someone from their online presence alone.
Did a little scratching beneath the surface, and while I couldn't pull up a definitive answer from AI into whether or not Flagpole was off his rocker, I did find that there is an app that probably could make the call, and here it is:
"Crystal Knows is a tool that uses AI and machine learning to predict anyone's personality. The platform uses the DISC assessment to profile personalities based on their online footprint, specifically through social media profiles and other public data."
The question is, would it do little more than confirming what we already know and suspect?
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