I think that is a realistic view. Although underneath it all is a foundation of sand. An economy built on various prescriptions of stimulus. The patient is addicted, to GLP-1 and marijuana. Too bloated and stoned to realize the stupidly of the short run.
Anyone else skeptical of this rally and new all time highs? All the metrics out there still suggest the market is overvalued by historical standards... However, it does seem like more and more people are investing, which could explain some of it... Credit and margin are also being used to a greater extent than ever before also... Seems like it's impossible to tell what the future holds. I have been really surprised to see returns as high as they've been the last couple years. I'm up nearly 21% over the least 1 year, and the year before that was even better. How long can this continue?
It's been wrong to be skeptical, but that's what makes markets.
Markets are saying that the world will find a work-around re; tariffs, the good stuff from DC will outweigh the bad stuff, and the system will soldier on.
Not sure it's wise to fight the tape.
But with trump as president and him completely controlling both the WH and congress, there is always a higher than normal chance of disaster.
As for valuation...valuation makes no difference until you start talking 4+ years of return. Valuation and 1 year return has zero correlation. So we shouldn't talk about valuation and immediate returns as having any relationship.
It's been wrong to be skeptical, but that's what makes markets.
Markets are saying that the world will find a work-around re; tariffs, the good stuff from DC will outweigh the bad stuff, and the system will soldier on.
Not sure it's wise to fight the tape.
But with trump as president and him completely controlling both the WH and congress, there is always a higher than normal chance of disaster.
As for valuation...valuation makes no difference until you start talking 4+ years of return. Valuation and 1 year return has zero correlation. So we shouldn't talk about valuation and immediate returns as having any relationship.
You quit doing stock market updates?
I'm never sure if I can even post, so doing a lot of work and then getting a 'banned' message is retarding my work here. Seems that if I use a VPN, use chrome and don't register the name 'esso' then I can usually get through the banning. Not sure if that is 100% working though.
Hey flagpole, remember when you wrote this? HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
Hey Flagpole, remember when you wrote this? HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
How this clown was ever so sure Harris was going to win will always remain a mystery - except not really because Flagpole's entire MO is basically "confidently incorrect."
I'm never sure if I can even post, so doing a lot of work and then getting a 'banned' message is retarding my work here. Seems that if I use a VPN, use chrome and don't register the name 'esso' then I can usually get through the banning. Not sure if that is 100% working though.
Firefox with uBlock Origin will help block fingerprinting.
Hey Flagpole, remember when you wrote this? HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
How this clown was ever so sure Harris was going to win will always remain a mystery - except not really because Flagpole's entire MO is basically "confidently incorrect."
He probably said 10,000 times Robert Mueller is coming and Trump was finished. He was horribly wrong on that as well.
How this clown was ever so sure Harris was going to win will always remain a mystery - except not really because Flagpole's entire MO is basically "confidently incorrect."
He probably said 10,000 times Robert Mueller is coming and Trump was finished. He was horribly wrong on that as well.
The most ignorant thing is continuing to attempt intimidation by labeling anyone with a different view “racist or stupid.” A tactic so blatantly overstated and obvious.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
I'm never sure if I can even post, so doing a lot of work and then getting a 'banned' message is retarding my work here. Seems that if I use a VPN, use chrome and don't register the name 'esso' then I can usually get through the banning. Not sure if that is 100% working though.
I have to say, I was worried you had visited Florence and were afflicted with an acute case of Stendhal syndrome, which was the cause of your absence.
I'm never sure if I can even post, so doing a lot of work and then getting a 'banned' message is retarding my work here. Seems that if I use a VPN, use chrome and don't register the name 'esso' then I can usually get through the banning. Not sure if that is 100% working though.
I have to say, I was worried you had visited Florence and were afflicted with an acute case of Stendhal syndrome, which was the cause of your absence.
Hey Flagpole, remember when you wrote this? HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
How this clown was ever so sure Harris was going to win will always remain a mystery - except not really because Flagpole's entire MO is basically "confidently incorrect."
On that note, I am confident he is beating the Dow. Very confident. In fact, a confidence factor of about 120% confident.
I'm never sure if I can even post, so doing a lot of work and then getting a 'banned' message is retarding my work here. Seems that if I use a VPN, use chrome and don't register the name 'esso' then I can usually get through the banning. Not sure if that is 100% working though.
I have to say, I was worried you had visited Florence and were afflicted with an acute case of Stendhal syndrome, which was the cause of your absence.
I suspect there is a massive amount of underpeformance out there. A buy and hold retirement portfolio returned 5% so far...I suspect many are trailing that because of April's panic. And lack of faith in overseas stocks.
Overseas is the star: 20+ plus in just 6 months! That 15-year-long overweight in US stocks has caught a lot of people on their back foot. Probably people will take years to get to equal weight overseas.
EM doing great too.
Small caps continue to suck wind...are they the next to roar back to life like overseas names? Hope so.
Hussman is a star: +15% in a strong environment is rare for them. Maybe they made money shorting the dip and then got long.
Global 80/20 is a star...returning 9% in just 6 months. Nice.
I suspect there is a massive amount of underpeformance out there. A buy and hold retirement portfolio returned 5% so far...I suspect many are trailing that because of April's panic. And lack of faith in overseas stocks.
Overseas is the star: 20+ plus in just 6 months! That 15-year-long overweight in US stocks has caught a lot of people on their back foot. Probably people will take years to get to equal weight overseas.
EM doing great too.
Small caps continue to suck wind...are they the next to roar back to life like overseas names? Hope so.
Hussman is a star: +15% in a strong environment is rare for them. Maybe they made money shorting the dip and then got long.
Global 80/20 is a star...returning 9% in just 6 months. Nice.
Animal spirits are roaring - ARKK +23%!
Thanks, that is really useful info.
This recent stretch in the markets - who could ever have seen this coming?
Lower U.S. Treasury rates are a negative for EM debt, however the continued upside down U.S. balance sheet is a minus for U.S. Dollar and a plus for EM debt. Clearly there is a lack of will to right this ship, so sticking with EM Bond CEFs for the foreseeable future. More here:
The ironic part about the Elon Musk/President Trump situation:
Eliminating the US deficit would actually accomplish ALL of President Trump's economic goals, at once.
First, the elimination of deficit spending would allow treasury yields to drop as multi-trillion dollar Treasury…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 1, 2025
I suspect there is a massive amount of underpeformance out there. A buy and hold retirement portfolio returned 5% so far...I suspect many are trailing that because of April's panic. And lack of faith in overseas stocks.
Overseas is the star: 20+ plus in just 6 months! That 15-year-long overweight in US stocks has caught a lot of people on their back foot. Probably people will take years to get to equal weight overseas.
EM doing great too.
Small caps continue to suck wind...are they the next to roar back to life like overseas names? Hope so.
Hussman is a star: +15% in a strong environment is rare for them. Maybe they made money shorting the dip and then got long.
Global 80/20 is a star...returning 9% in just 6 months. Nice.
How this clown was ever so sure Harris was going to win will always remain a mystery - except not really because Flagpole's entire MO is basically "confidently incorrect."
On that note, I am confident he is beating the Dow. Very confident. In fact, a confidence factor of about 120% confident.
He has his own way of measuring things!
I had calculated a while back the probability of him beating the Dow 34 out of 35 or 36 years - don't really remember anymore - and the chance of him beating it like that had a probability of 1 out of 7 billion or so. So if everyone on the planet had a portfolio and was measuring its performance against the Dow, exactly 1 person, statistically, might have been able to do that. So Flagpole just might have been that 1 person.
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