Down goes the Dow

Thank gods Biden wasn’t president of Japan, then!

You will carry on, on Trump, and on key. While like others on this thread, ignore all the nonsense that came from the previous Administration. And who was really in charge? It clearly was not your boy Joe Biden.

As much a possible, I try to separate my investing decisions from my political and personal beliefs. Whether the company is woke or conservative, whether it is involved in gambling, cigarettes, or alcohol, and whether it makes life-saving (or evil, depending on your POV) mRNA vaccines, I try my best to push those personal feelings aside when considering a stock for investment.

The whole pro/con of tariffs have made markets volatile and volatility creates both opportunity and risk. I personally think the running/sports apparel market has been hit hard and even though it's up substantially since early April, the possibility exists for gains of up to 50% by December. Back in April, I bought ONON, DECK, NKE, and LULU. Genius that I am, the stock I put the least amount of money in has performed best and the stock I put the most in is up the least. Still, I'm happy with the overall return.

Any thoughts on this sector? Or these stocks?

No one cares. Not just trying to be glib, but seriously, no one cares (points to stock market)

yeah this is the big question.

I think the massive tariffs we have will hurt the stock market.

But the stock market disagrees right now. Although a month ago it agreed with me completely.

Which shows how little we know, because it's all going on in the mind of DJT and Xi, not in the hands of a more predictable legislature.

Seattle has guessed that this is all just momentum trading and he's right that is a big part of this rally.

I remain bearish. 30% tariffs on china and at least 10% tariffs on every country in the world, plus the inability of companies to plan will take a big toll out of profits.

one of the hardest things to do in investing is to do what you are doing - looking years ahead and investing now for that vision.

Kudos for trying!

Actually, Japan's CPI rose. This is a country that's been fighting deflation for years. The rise in 2014 was due to a the national consumption tax increase from 5% to 8%. From 2014 to 2021 the CPI rose only 2.37% in 7 years. From 2021 to 2024 it rose 8.71% in only 3 years ( 2.82% compounded annual growth rate )!

It's kind of reverse to the ways things usually work.

The stock market usually responds well in advance and in anticipation of the larger economy. The markets did do this atleast initially with the onset of tariffs that were larger than expected (Independence Day announcements).

But now the market seem to be in a 'show me and only then will I believe it' mode in which it is waiting to see the effects on the economy.

All of which is somewhat surprising because it seems fairly certain the economy will be impacted, and quite noticably so within a few months, and the only question is by how much.

Powell and the Fed Interest rate decisions may be a big part of how markets take all this as we move further into the year.

I do not understand why the S&P is trading at the multiple it is at right now with the tariffs that we have now that will act as a tax that will shrink economic growth and still has the potential to lead to stagflation. The odds are just lower than the initial higher tariffs.

Maybe some think with a budget with a huge amount of deficit spending and deregulation that consumers will continue to spend and companies will continue to growth earnings.

I didn’t expect the very quick rise back to the levels we are now so. just shows that it is really hard to time the market.

still I am hesitant to put more money in right now.

with the deficit spending planned and the chaos with tariffs, I am going more international now.

agreed with Seattle...the market is simply saying 'numbers look good now!' and leaving it at that. And yeah the numbers right now look really good. Corp profits are growing very fast.

and there is a general belief that trump can't truly be serious about the tariffs - and/or that the world will push back with such force that trump will have to yield and go on to the next thing.

Keep an eye on the bond market...the higher the 10 year yield goes, the less likely it is we'll get material tariffs. Right now the 10 year is at one of its highest points of the year.

I’m pretty pumped about the bond market at the moment. We’ve got stuff maturing over the next few months to couple of years needing reinvestment and investment grade corporate bonds remain a good buying opportunity for a risk-averse investor like myself, effectively guaranteeing better returns than we need for a comfy retirement, and not too far off (and perhaps better than over, say, 5 to 10 years) returns on US equities.

A year ago. Wrong on almost everything. Inflation has fallen. It has moved in the right direction. It is at or very near the fed's target. Assets have appreciated strongly - Sp500 +14% since the tweet.

Bob Elliott
@BobEUnlimited
Inflation is too high.
It's not moving in the right direction.
It's not on pace to durably fall to the Fed's target soon.
Until it is clearly on its way down to target, an easing of monetary policy wont happen.
Buying assets today anticipating an easing wont work out well.
6:52 AM · May 15, 2024
·
95.4K
Views

i'm not cheering biden or harris. they are both non-issues at this point.

i'm pointing out how bad your boy is but you don't want to see it so you keep dragging biden and harris into the discussion.

regardless of the problems created by the past administration or the past 20 administrations, the mess were are dealing with now is all on your boy trump. the economy is headed south and fast.

eToro went public yesterday. I'd never heard of social trading so I checked it out. I saw where Cathie Wood bought $9.7million on the open. I sure as heck wouldn't want the financial liability of soliciting anyone to follow my trades!

I'm tempted to toss $10k into an account to get up to the gold level of access and check it out firsthand. The younger generations are using social media for everything so it makes sense as a business proposition for eToro.

Any opinions on its trading services or the stock itself?

I would say that FOMO is not a good basis for making investment decisions.

some sweet classic rock today - Harrison's version of Dylan's Absolutely Sweet Marie, live from 1992.

Love how he found the country swing to it - that thing rolls! as Keith Richards would say.

harrison had exquisite taste and judgment. Fun to see him cut loose a little here, let it fly rather than his usual highly produced perfection. Having fun with rock and roll again.

Agreed, but I don't think FOMO is the driving force behind social trading, from what I've read. To me, based solely on what I've read today, eToro's appeal is like buying running shoes because some social media influencer recommends them. It's a no-effort approach and it's new. I think that would appeal to the younger generation more so than my generation, but that doesn't mean that it's not a good business model.

From a personal approach, my thinking was to open an account, invest it in something I would otherwise hol in my portfolio at Schwab so I could follow eToro's social accounts in real time. Whether my funds are at Schwab or eToro doesn't really matter if I would hold that position in my portfolio anyway. Maybe I'm missing something, which is why I posted this. The withdrawal fee (apparently $5 for what I've read so far) is insignificant if I decide eToro isn't for me.

Not my investment style at all, so I would never do it. But as for others, checking a reddit discussion that is rather lengthy and seems totally legit, the comments from users agree on the fact that the spreads are big (not good), and a fair amount of users note some big procedural problems. More than a few mentioned problems when they tried to get money out, and they seemed to be ongoing. Also mention that their prices and transactions are slow and not what one would hope for.

It seems geared to people who want to invest but don't have the time or inclination to do their own due diligence.

In my way of thinking, their are so many investment vehicles, funds, etfs, sector plays, and readily available advice in abundance - all basically free - I don't see the appeal of a service like eToro for someone willing to put in even a little thought and research into their options.