A thought crime would be the belief that Biden or Harris offered something substantially better.
Ok, I guess I’ll continue to assume you voted Trump.
OK, I guess I’ll continue to assume you voted liberal and elected Carney. Good thing you got rid of that phony that would dress in blackface. Can you imagine?
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.
Further - what point is the graph trying to make? Hmm?
Hmm, there is a reason fewer houses are sold today at a 7% versus 2.8% 30 year mortgage, and why sales at the ends of the spectrum are higher. Either you are rich enough or equity enough to afford the high end, or you qualify for less. Prices adjust to that new reality downward. Pretty simple actually. You see the same trend in the economy at large, with the wealthy continuing to spend, somewhat hesitantly recently, while the vast majority are trading down. Even Walmart noted the trend of wealthier clients increasing their shopping at the discounter.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
These tariffs are going to knock at least a percent off gdp, and there are all Kinds of unknowns that mean businesses can’t plan.
i suppose the hope is tax cuts will offset the losses from tariffs and chaos.
Im making good money in this market but would have made a lot more if I hadn’t reduced risk!
Stock buybacks to the rescue! Seems corporations were buying back stock, almost $250 billion in April. It makes sense, with all the uncertainty, to give money back to investors than do capex or M&A. Some believe corps will break the $1 trillion mark in buybacks this year.
The answer to my question was E, over 50 years. From 9/1929 to 10/1985. The real price surpassed 9/1929 in 12/1958 but dropped below it 1974. So from 1929 to 1985 the S&P 500's real price was below 1929's high 78% of the time!
Meb Faber got his data from UBS's Global Investment Returns Yearbook. They use the total return of the US Market, not the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is worse, 9/1929 to 4/1948, almost 19 years! Other notable negative real total returns (dividends reinvested) were, 1/1973-12/1984 and 8/2000 to 4/2013.
These tariffs are going to knock at least a percent off gdp, and there are all Kinds of unknowns that mean businesses can’t plan.
i suppose the hope is tax cuts will offset the losses from tariffs and chaos.
Im making good money in this market but would have made a lot more if I hadn’t reduced risk!
I might have to revise my stock market projections upwards again.
Tariffs aren't about tariffs. Tariffs aren't the end game.
US and China are meeting in Geneva to discuss a deal this weekend. I expect/hope the US will play hard ball and the market will pull back Monday when this deal falls through. That should/might create a buying opportunity to get into some stocks that have popped a lot since mid-April.
I might have to revise my stock market projections upwards again.
Tariffs aren't about tariffs. Tariffs aren't the end game.
US and China are meeting in Geneva to discuss a deal this weekend. I expect/hope the US will play hard ball and the market will pull back Monday when this deal falls through. That should/might create a buying opportunity to get into some stocks that have popped a lot since mid-April.
it's contradictory.
tariffs ARE the end game from one thing Trumpies are saying - that we will 'pay for' cuts in personal and corporate income tax with tariff revenue. So in that sense we can't eliminate the tariffs. We need the money they provide.
BUT
Some trumpies are also saying the tariffs are just levers/whipping sticks to get countries to sign more favorable trade deals with the US. Implying the tariffs will go away eventually and they aren't the real point. Open markets are the real point.
These things are somewhat contradictory.
Sounds like what will happen is that there will be a universal 10% tariff to get a lot of income from, but the second level tariffs are negotiable and will come down.
A universal 10% tariff will cause a lot of inflation and lower GDP. Hard to see the stock market holding its high multiple in that situation. Not great for stocks.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Tariffs aren't about tariffs. Tariffs aren't the end game.
US and China are meeting in Geneva to discuss a deal this weekend. I expect/hope the US will play hard ball and the market will pull back Monday when this deal falls through. That should/might create a buying opportunity to get into some stocks that have popped a lot since mid-April.
it's contradictory.
POINT 1: tariffs ARE the end game from one thing Trumpies are saying - that we will 'pay for' cuts in personal and corporate income tax with tariff revenue. So in that sense we can't eliminate the tariffs. We need the money they provide.
BUT
POINT 2: Some trumpies are also saying the tariffs are just levers/whipping sticks to get countries to sign more favorable trade deals with the US. Implying the tariffs will go away eventually and they aren't the real point. Open markets are the real point.
These things are somewhat contradictory.
Sounds like what will happen is that there will be a universal 10% tariff to get a lot of income from, but the second level tariffs are negotiable and will come down.
A universal 10% tariff will cause a lot of inflation and lower GDP. Hard to see the stock market holding its high multiple in that situation. Not great for stocks.
Point 1 is nice secondary benefit that plays to the masses. Ignore it.
Point 2 is much closer, but it still focuses solely on trade and economics. Tariffs don't exist in a vacuum. They can be used to get concessions in other areas, not just trade. Other than forcing companies to move manufacturing of strategically important goods OUT of China, I can't guess what those other goals are for China. China is messing with us in so many areas that I can't guess what our strategic goals are.
It's much easier to see the non-tariff goals with Mexico, so let me use Mexico as an example.
The non-tariff goals were to discourage illegal border crossings, stop the caravans of migrants, reduce the flow of fentanyl, and reduce the negative impact of Mexican cartels on the US. Overall, the non-tariff aspect of tariffs has been a success with Mexico. The biggest failure so far has been President Sheinbaum's rejection on May 5th of the US offer to send troops to Mexico to fight cartels, but the US offer to send troops indicates to me that this was one of the non-tariff goals.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
If you don’t have a border you have no country. Of course that is the Globalist goal. It is not about immigration in the true sense; they care little about welfare of these people. Power, and wealth are the goal. The immigrants are tools to be used for that goal.
These tariffs are going to knock at least a percent off gdp, and there are all Kinds of unknowns that mean businesses can’t plan.
i suppose the hope is tax cuts will offset the losses from tariffs and chaos.
Im making good money in this market but would have made a lot more if I hadn’t reduced risk!
I think the markets today tend to be more nimble and hyper responsive than they used to be and their is much more short term profit seeking. I think they are operating with the strategy to capitalize on the dips, and they will respond to the economic pitfalls that may emerge in the coming weeks and months as they emerge.
Another words, they don't see the need to get situated for an economic downturn that may or may not play out as is feared. Rather, the market is using the volatility to guide their short term trading strategy.
Great points made in the course of the discussion, though, imo.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Reason provided:
mistake fixed
The answer to my question was E, over 50 years. From 9/1929 to 10/1985. The real price surpassed 9/1929 in 12/1958 but dropped below it 1974. So from 1929 to 1985 the S&P 500's real price was below 1929's high 78% of the time!
Meb Faber got his data from UBS's Global Investment Returns Yearbook. They use the total return of the US Market, not the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is worse, 9/1929 to 4/1948, almost 19 years! Other notable negative real total returns (dividends reinvested) were, 1/1973-12/1984 and 8/2000 to 4/2013.
Here's some more useless information that might fire your imagination.
From March 1957, when the S&P 500 was created, to March 2000, the CAGR was 12.25% ( inflation adjusted was 7.60% ). Dividends added 380 basis points to that total ( 8.45% + 3.80% ). Since March 2000 to April 2025 the CAGR is 7.29 ( 4.65% inflation adjusted ). Dividends added 191 bps ( 5.38% + 1.91% ).
1) Dividend contribution has dropped from 31.02% contribution to the total return to 26.20%.
2) Total return ( nominal ) has dropped almost 500 bps this century!
This could move the market on Tuesday. Not clear how long it takes to make a decision.
The Trump administration’s global tariffs face their first major legal test this week when a little-known Manhattan court considers one of the president’s most sweeping assertions of executive power. A three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade will hear arguments Tuesday on whether to halt the levies, which have unleashed a trade war with the world and threaten to upend the global economy. The federal court, which has nationwide jurisdiction over tariff and trade disputes, operates for the most part in obscurity, rarely garnering a mention in major publications and staying off the radar of most attorneys.
Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt.Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.
