In compliance with agip's DgtD Rule I; Section 420; re Topic sentences:
It seems Bessent has convinced Trump to pivot on tariffs and J-Pow*. Recall, when Bessent's nomination was announced, I posted a thread by keyser soze who has known Bessent for 35 years. Here's his take on the cave, excuse me, change of course.
Love Stephanie Ruhle, but I don’t think her assessment of the Bessent & Trump caving in statements are accurate: it’s a month-end thing. $ from Wall Street financial types & SilCo tech bros got Trump elected. This isn’t the p...
"Fade the VIX 50 depression, prepare for the VIX 20-25 recession is how to think about the world until there are reasons to believe policy or the economy has stabilized."
*I expect the Navarro faction will mount a counteroffensive.
In compliance with agip's DgtD Rule I; Section 420; re Topic sentences:
It seems Bessent has convinced Trump to pivot on tariffs and J-Pow*. Recall, when Bessent's nomination was announced, I posted a thread by keyser soze who has known Bessent for 35 years. Here's his take on the cave, excuse me, change of course.
"Fade the VIX 50 depression, prepare for the VIX 20-25 recession is how to think about the world until there are reasons to believe policy or the economy has stabilized."
*I expect the Navarro faction will mount a counteroffensive.
hey, rules are rules, I don't make them up. It's not just smoke and mirrors.
nice piece. 1Q25 was a terrible quarter - hedgies will be in big trouble returnwise. Should cause huge whipsaws as they try to catch up.
1Q was a huge reversal of the 'buy american, sell europe, buy tech.' that bent, successful for 15 years was a huge loser in 1Q. Hedgies' years are basically wrecked. They will be very unhappy all year, having been destroyed in 1Q. And it wrecked their multiyear performance numbers too. It was a trainwreck.
But if you had a large position in europe, you did great. That is NOT where hedgies were invested.
My guess is markets recover on the expectation that Vance will just get taken advantage of by the highest bidder and the GOP old guard, and all that tends to track towards the status-quo. But anyone hoping for a premature exit from office is dreaming. Trump will easily make it to '28 and probably manage to get a third term because no one in America seems to actually care
This seems like a very inaccurate take to me, no offense. Vance is a very smart person. I'm not saying I agree with all of his politics, and he is also young and pretty inexperienced with big league politics, but he is unquestionably a highly intelligent and "get things done" type of person if you know anything about his life story.
I personally think Vance would be a much better president than Trump and would probably manage just fine. I think the country would be on a better course. I know little to nothing about Mark Johnson, who would be become VP as he's current Speaker of the House, but whoever is the VP doesn't matter much unless the president dies. lol. I think if Trump died it would cause a drop initially due to knee-jerk uncertainty and panic, but things would pretty quickly stabilize, and there would be much less uncertainty and stress about the future of the economy than there is at present.
Of course, I could be wrong as Vance is pretty untested. It's hard to say with confidence how things would play out.
He's young and seems more like a fish out of water. Is he smarter than Trump? Sure, but that's a low bar for me personally since I genuinely believe Trump would score somewhere around an 85 to 90 on an IQ test.
Vance has no experience in coalition building and actual politicking to get anything other than the status quo done, and the GOP has shown absolutely no mercy when it comes to cannibalizing their own and grandstanding for attention the second they smell blood in the water.
So now tariffs on China are completely on the chopping block it seems.
Who could have possibly seen this coming (maybe anyone who was paying attention when he did this exact same BS during his first term).
will be interesting to see what trump does now...he has lost leverage.
China has indicated they are not in a hurry to sign a deal or even negotiate.
Meanwhile, trump is under massive pressure from business, the stock market and especially the bond market.
China has solid motivation to just sit and wait. Trump will likely fold. But it could take a while. Would not want to work for an American retailer right now.
So now tariffs on China are completely on the chopping block it seems.
Who could have possibly seen this coming (maybe anyone who was paying attention when he did this exact same BS during his first term).
will be interesting to see what trump does now...he has lost leverage.
China has indicated they are not in a hurry to sign a deal or even negotiate.
Meanwhile, trump is under massive pressure from business, the stock market and especially the bond market.
China has solid motivation to just sit and wait. Trump will likely fold. But it could take a while. Would not want to work for an American retailer right now.
Heard last night that we are on track, per the Wall St. Journal, for the worst April for the markets since The Great Depression.
A lot of damage has already been done even if a pivot is in store.
Giant loss of credibilty and confidence.
And not looking forward to the impacts start being felt on Main Street (as opposed to Wall St.).
will be interesting to see what trump does now...he has lost leverage.
China has indicated they are not in a hurry to sign a deal or even negotiate.
Meanwhile, trump is under massive pressure from business, the stock market and especially the bond market.
China has solid motivation to just sit and wait. Trump will likely fold. But it could take a while. Would not want to work for an American retailer right now.
Heard last night that we are on track, per the Wall St. Journal, for the worst April for the markets since The Great Depression.
A lot of damage has already been done even if a pivot is in store.
Giant loss of credibilty and confidence.
And not looking forward to the impacts start being felt on Main Street (as opposed to Wall St.).
The exact same narrative was being pushed in 2018. In fact, I believe that year was when cash ended up being the best investment.
Nothing new is happening. Do you all not remember the reports back then that Trump was absolutely glued to Fox Business and stock tickers, and would frequently shout at said index tickers as they appeared on screen?
Heard last night that we are on track, per the Wall St. Journal, for the worst April for the markets since The Great Depression.
A lot of damage has already been done even if a pivot is in store.
Giant loss of credibilty and confidence.
And not looking forward to the impacts start being felt on Main Street (as opposed to Wall St.).
The exact same narrative was being pushed in 2018. In fact, I believe that year was when cash ended up being the best investment.
Nothing new is happening. Do you all not remember the reports back then that Trump was absolutely glued to Fox Business and stock tickers, and would frequently shout at said index tickers as they appeared on screen?
My sense is that we are through the period where foreigners sell everything American. Those endless waves of selling might be over.
Now we have to deal with the impending recession and ongoing trade chaos.
My thesis is that we're seeing a re-rating of the US back to a 18-20 PE ratio, from the 25x of recent years. Will be painful and a long grind, but the level of pain depends on how well earnings hold up.
I think trump has taken away investors' faith that US stocks are simply worth more than non-US stocks. It's going to hurt.
This post was edited 29 seconds after it was posted.
The exact same narrative was being pushed in 2018. In fact, I believe that year was when cash ended up being the best investment.
Nothing new is happening. Do you all not remember the reports back then that Trump was absolutely glued to Fox Business and stock tickers, and would frequently shout at said index tickers as they appeared on screen?
You sure fixated on Trump. It will be ok.
I know. I know. I know.
And we will probably be saying the same thing about him in his next term.
And we will probably be saying the same thing about him in his next term.
It will be a good matchup Trump and Ron Klain. Klain has the advantage of running things for the brain dead Biden, and has the experience to reimpose the woke globalist agenda. I will bet on Klain with the backing of Obama and Soros a sure winner. The liberal judges will allow ballot stuffing again. I would load up on stocks now. As Dr Racket says stocks only go up, especially with the globalists in charge.
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