It's the exact same thing he did in 2018. And we had the exact same conversation - "oh well he's really exhausted a lot of good will! I bet Europe isn't going to tolerate this next time!"
And then Biden won in 2020 and suddenly everyone forgot.
this is far more serious
I was about to say essentially the same - there are orders of magnitude differences now.
And I attribute that to atleast two obvious things - the pandemic was a backdrop in which the world just could not tolerate any further tinkering like he is doing now, and the fact that he has latched onto Project 2025 ideology, which is enabling him.
Other than that, the posts above are very amusing, this site's the best.
I don't claim to be anything special in the IQ category, but I've got luck. And I'm smart enough not to underestimate how significant that can be.
Point of interest for those who don’t know how IQ scale works; an 85 IQ puts somebody at around the 16th percentile, meaning they are smarter than about 16% of the population, or dumber than about 84%. They are smarter than roughly 1 in 6 people. So, in a group like ours with about 6 regular contributors and a couple dozen more occasional posters, somebody likely has an IQ of 85 or less.
We are all free to speculate who that might be among us. 🙂
Well I am smart enough to have never panicked in the last several weeks. So I’ll leave the speculation on who has a higher IQ or just more common sense to others.
I wasn’t implying it was you, to be clear. Probably me 🙂
Maybe we could just argue over who has the most wheelbarrows of money - you know, like Flagpole used to claim he did.
Miss that guy. Like how he did so fantastically well just dollar cost averaging regularly month after month, since he started working some 35 years ago for a .... weight for it ..... large well known software company (in which he was nicley compensated with company shares). And his point was, if he could do it, anyone could.
Funny how he totally splits after Harris loses. Not even a how you doing in passing....
Any chance he was a paid influencer whose gig was up after a failed election? I mean, he did spend a lot of time on pushing one side's politics. Hmmmm.....
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Reason provided:
Hi, Sally!
Maybe we could just argue over who has the most wheelbarrows of money - you know, like Flagpole used to claim he did.
Miss that guy. Like how he did so fantastically well just dollar cost averaging regularly month after month, since he started working some 35 years ago for a .... weight for it ..... large well known software company (in which he was nicley compensated with company shares). And his point was, if he could do it, anyone could.
Funny how he totally splits after Harris loses. Not even a how you doing in passing....
Any chance he was a paid influencer whose gig was up after a failed election? I mean, he did spend a lot of time on pushing one side's politics. Hmmmm.....
Flagpole is a real dude. He’s been around here longer than me, and I got here around 2001. I know who he is and he knows me, although not through any screen names I’ve used in this thread. He is more or less as he has described himself, late 50s, reasonably smart, excellent musician. Also a bit of a blowhard prone to exaggeration, and clearly not too well informed in statistics or he’d understand why nobody believes his Dow outperformance claim. As I understand it, he dropped off because he promised to do so if Trump got reelected. Since he’s honored his word on that one, I think he needs a bit of credit for keeping his word. So, on balance, an annoying but real and ultimately decent middle aged white dude.
I read Daniel Bell's "The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting" over 50 years ago. Clearly, very few people have read it since it was published in 1973. Very prescient,this is from Wikipedia;
In The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting (1973), Bell outlined a new kind of society, the post-industrial society. He argued that post-industrialism would be information-led and service-oriented. Bell also argued that the post-industrial society would replace the industrial society as the dominant system. There are three components to a post-industrial society, according to Bell: a shift from manufacturing to services, the centrality of the new science-based industries, the rise of new technical elites and the advent of a new principle of stratification.
that's pretty close yeah.
all three of those happened.
I wonder how generic that is though...if you could say it for just about any period post peak manufacturing age. Now 'technical elites' are AI and chip designers but 50 years ago they would have been the guy who set up fax machines in your office. 60 years ago they would have been the guys who understood some primitive mainframe computer technology.
70 years ago the guys who could built TVs. 80 years ago radio or radar, etc.
So they were always there, and nothing new.
Not sure what 'a new principle of stratification' means.
fascinating to me that the age of coding came and went so fast. they were elite for a while, and now they are like assembly line workers and being replaced by AI, unless they work at a high level.
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… did you know that boomers are the first generation to have a measured IQ decrease as they got older?
Source?
While various aspects of intelligence decline with age, IQ is calculated relative to the average for the age of the test subject. IQ is supposedly pretty stable with age for most people, in the absence of head injury, other trauma or neurodegenerative disease.
While various aspects of intelligence decline with age, IQ is calculated relative to the average for the age of the test subject. IQ is supposedly pretty stable with age for most people, in the absence of head injury, other trauma or neurodegenerative disease.
Many in and around the 2000-2002 Tech Bubble, 2007-2009 GFC, and Covid.
I think you meant to reply to my other post, but yeah that’s what I was after. At least half of those big jumps up, maybe 3/4, occurred in the midst of major crashes. It’s much too soon to know whether we’ve seen the end of this global sell off. I have my doubts, but will be overjoyed to be proven wrong.
Many in and around the 2000-2002 Tech Bubble, 2007-2009 GFC, and Covid.
I think you meant to reply to my other post, but yeah that’s what I was after. At least half of those big jumps up, maybe 3/4, occurred in the midst of major crashes. It’s much too soon to know whether we’ve seen the end of this global sell off. I have my doubts, but will be overjoyed to be proven wrong.
My view remains the problems are deep, masked by decades of fiscal and monetary policy. The Biden and Trump Administrations, or Congress are sideshows. I bought back all the leveraged shorts I sold recently, and then some. I could go a bit more, depending on how things trade. As a hold prefer EM Bond CEFs, performed better than most assets in the recent downturn, but unlikely to have a short term big recovery.
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I was about to say essentially the same - there are orders of magnitude differences now.
It's really just the same.
Other countries will at least bide their time until midterms. Maybe if midterms don't go as well as Dems want then it'll change but in the mean time, meh
While various aspects of intelligence decline with age, IQ is calculated relative to the average for the age of the test subject. IQ is supposedly pretty stable with age for most people, in the absence of head injury, other trauma or neurodegenerative disease.
In a reversal of trends, American baby boomers scored lower on a test of cognitive functioning than did members of previous generations, according to a new nationwide study. Findings showed that average cognition scores of ad...
While various aspects of intelligence decline with age, IQ is calculated relative to the average for the age of the test subject. IQ is supposedly pretty stable with age for most people, in the absence of head injury, other trauma or neurodegenerative disease.
While various aspects of intelligence decline with age, IQ is calculated relative to the average for the age of the test subject. IQ is supposedly pretty stable with age for most people, in the absence of head injury, other trauma or neurodegenerative disease.
This study is rather fascinating. And while it is not strongly indicative of causes, it does note some moderate links that may explain the phenonmenon.
Culprits to the decline of cognitive functioning for boomers, according to the studie's author, may have to do with the increases of problems and symptoms with modern life, including specifically "self-reported loneliness and depression, lack of physical activity and obesity."
Also, wealth and higher levels of education showed very slightly less levels of cognitive decline.
And problems unique to the US (where the study was conducted) were hypothesized, like lack of universal access to and high cost of health care.
And a note for you, "comfortably retired ___", the study notes that the trends may likely be true for those individuals born into the 1960's but they didn't have enough people in the study to draw that conclusion.
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Reason provided:
typo
From how bonds are acting...some very large holders are deciding they don't want to hold US assets anymore. Yields rising when there's no obvious reason for it. And the dollar has been falling too.
When the country is led by a guy with bad economics ideas and no checks or balances, people are saying goodbye, see you later (maybe).
In the past, when there is global upset, people bought treasuries and the dollar. Not this one. Killing the golden goose.
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