The hope for the markets is that this will bring countries begging, hat in hand, to Mar a Lago and give Trump whatever he wants to stop the pain.
it worked with law firms and universities, so maybe it will work with nations. But I doubt it.
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la gente esta muy loca wrote:
agip wrote:
I just sold a big piece of my stock portfolio.
Down to 40% stocks now.
Just seems the White House wants to cause a recession and drive stock prices down. Not sure I want to be in the way as that happens. That's their goal and I think they will succeed.
I'll probably keep selling down to around 35%.
National suicide.
"Gradually and then suddenly."
As my Croatian maternal grandfather use to say, "no one listens to the papa."
Bear market levels:
Russell 2000 is around 1956.
S&P 500 is 4915.32
NASDAQ 100 is 17740.48
Forgot to add, no one listened to Rex Tillerson.
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tech stocks down around 20%...seems to me that's the big opportunity here. Buying the best companies in the world at 20% off seems very foresighted to me.
the risk is that the world will block US tech companies as revenge for the trump economic war on the rest of the world.
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agip wrote:
tech stocks down around 20%...seems to me that's the big opportunity here. Buying the best companies in the world at 20% off seems very foresighted to me.
the risk is that the world will block US tech companies as revenge for the trump economic war on the rest of the world.
No one is gonna do jack sh!t when it's obvious policies will be forced to change by mid-term elections.
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Dr Prof Racket, PhD wrote:
agip wrote:
tech stocks down around 20%...seems to me that's the big opportunity here. Buying the best companies in the world at 20% off seems very foresighted to me.
the risk is that the world will block US tech companies as revenge for the trump economic war on the rest of the world.
No one is gonna do jack sh!t when it's obvious policies will be forced to change by mid-term elections.
^This right here. Hell Trump might pull a 180 on Monday, there's just no way to know. I've got an asset allocation that I'm comfortable with so I'm gonna sit tight and ride this out. It does help that I just sold my condo for 4X what I paid for it and I've got a big pile of cash to lean on.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.10 -
Dr Prof Racket, PhD wrote:
agip wrote:
tech stocks down around 20%...seems to me that's the big opportunity here. Buying the best companies in the world at 20% off seems very foresighted to me.
the risk is that the world will block US tech companies as revenge for the trump economic war on the rest of the world.
No one is gonna do jack sh!t when it's obvious policies will be forced to change by mid-term elections.
and you think things will go back the way they were, in terms of US stocks getting a huge valuation premium, and capital flooding into the US for years and years?
The world loathes and mistrusts this country. Capital is flowing out, the dollar is falling.
I think we have to be clear eyed about the new world. It's not one in which people blindly buy the SP500.
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agip wrote:
Dr Prof Racket, PhD wrote:
No one is gonna do jack sh!t when it's obvious policies will be forced to change by mid-term elections.
and you think things will go back the way they were, in terms of US stocks getting a huge valuation premium, and capital flooding into the US for years and years?
The world loathes and mistrusts this country. Capital is flowing out, the dollar is falling.
I think we have to be clear eyed about the new world. It's not one in which people blindly buy the SP500.
I'm trying to imagine a European investment committee now...trying to imagine someone saying they should put new money into US equities. I mean come on. Try to picture that. What would he say exactly? "Trump won't shoot us again!"
Not going to happen anytime soon no matter how many 180s trump does. Trust was broken and won't be back soon.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.20 -
agip wrote:
Dr Prof Racket, PhD wrote:
No one is gonna do jack sh!t when it's obvious policies will be forced to change by mid-term elections.
and you think things will go back the way they were, in terms of US stocks getting a huge valuation premium, and capital flooding into the US for years and years?
The world loathes and mistrusts this country. Capital is flowing out, the dollar is falling.
I think we have to be clear eyed about the new world. It's not one in which people blindly buy the SP500.
I hope it works out for you, whatever you decide to do.
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agip wrote:
agip wrote:
and you think things will go back the way they were, in terms of US stocks getting a huge valuation premium, and capital flooding into the US for years and years?
The world loathes and mistrusts this country. Capital is flowing out, the dollar is falling.
I think we have to be clear eyed about the new world. It's not one in which people blindly buy the SP500.
I'm trying to imagine a European investment committee now...trying to imagine someone saying they should put new money into US equities. I mean come on. Try to picture that. What would he say exactly? "Trump won't shoot us again!"
Not going to happen anytime soon no matter how many 180s trump does. Trust was broken and won't be back soon.
I think Trump is going to use the tarrifs in order to bargain deals with each country, and I think he wants to start with a strong hand, that serves his interest in negotiating. I think it's also in his interest to back the hell off of a steep tarrif stance, so we will see action sooner rather than later.
But there will still be a fair amount of residual tarrifs, and there will be a new way of doing business internationally, which will both create a lot of animosity and will discourage investment in our markets.
I think the big things that will move markets in the coming weeks and months will be economic indicators that point to a much softer economy, rising inflation, and diminishing consumer confidence and spending.
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la gente esta muy loca wrote:
Bear market levels:
Russell 2000 is around 1956.
S&P 500 is 4915.32
NASDAQ 100 is 17740.48
Russell 2000 is now in a bear market!
One of my favorite takes on tariffs was this by Kieran Healy:
"I do honestly feel bad for all the super-smart economists I know
scouring the data to locate extremely clever measures to test elegantly
expressive models only to have this guy Leeroy Jenkins the global trade
system into a mob-run construction site in Elizabeth NJ c.1978."For you old timers that don't get the Leeroy Jenkins reference.
Here's my $.02
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Dr Prof Racket, PhD wrote:
No one is gonna do jack sh!t when it's obvious policies will be forced to change by mid-term elections.
You think there will be mid-term elections?!? How cute...
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SP500 down 9% in a couple trading days
I guess we have to call that a crash.
We're living through a market crash.
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agip wrote:
SP500 down 9% in a couple trading days
I guess we have to call that a crash.
We're living through a market crash.
that said...with the vix at 40, greed and fear at extreme fear and tech down 20% or more...I've started buying generic tech.
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agip wrote:
agip wrote:
SP500 down 9% in a couple trading days
I guess we have to call that a crash.
We're living through a market crash.
that said...with the vix at 40, greed and fear at extreme fear and tech down 20% or more...I've started buying generic tech.
what I'd really love to do is wait until junk spreads get up to 5.5% or so and back up the truck. to get an 8-10% coupon from 1-3 year junk bonds...that sounds very very good.
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Dow down another 1500
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Yield on EMD approaching 12% at $9.00/share. Sold some shares of SOXS, all lots up 133% currently.
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FAX at $15.20 yielding 13% per share.
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Taking gains on some shares of SOXS plow back into EM Bond CEFs for income as share prices drop.
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agip wrote:
Dr Prof Racket, PhD wrote:
No one is gonna do jack sh!t when it's obvious policies will be forced to change by mid-term elections.
and you think things will go back the way they were, in terms of US stocks getting a huge valuation premium, and capital flooding into the US for years and years?
The world loathes and mistrusts this country. Capital is flowing out, the dollar is falling.
I think we have to be clear eyed about the new world. It's not one in which people blindly buy the SP500.
Seeing as that's literally what happened in 2016-2019, and then reversed in 2020 when Biden took office....
Yes, I do indeed think that everyone will forget about this in 2-4 years.
Long term maybe not, since it's low key becoming obvious that US Congress is chicken-sh!t and US policy both domestic and foreign is just going to be a series of presidents undoing one another through executive orders.
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