Are you total newbs to the post 2009 stock market? You buy the dip, make money, rinse and repeat. It's literally worked every single time for the last 16 years. Some never learn
buying the dip has worked for a while, yes. But the difference is that now stocks are down as a direct result of the president's decisions, and the president and treasury secretary is saying there is more pain to come.
Usually the president has much less power and doesn't tell the world 'yeah this is going to hurt for a while sorry not sorry.' This is different.
The question is if we are in a new world, when the government cannot be considered a help to the market but rather a problem to the market.
At a minimum, I think markets will say 'you know what...with Trump in charge and making erratic unpredictable decisions....I'll only pay 20x earnings for the SP500, not 25x earnings.'
I think that's what's happening here. A rerating of the market to a lower multiple because of the crazy stuff going on.
The good news is that the real economy seems....ok, if slowing a bit. Which should support stocks at some point.
Ok, but I think there are also questions about impending impacts on the economy, with inflationary pressures being imposed and the possibility if sliding into recession.
None of this is because of spending by the US Treasury (which is still debated as to whether or not that even matters when your currency is the de facto trade currency of the global hegemonic power).
It's because a literal retard is in the Oval Office.
This thread is full of idiots. The level of commentary is embarrassing.
Have you tried leaving and literally never coming back maybe?
Are you total newbs to the post 2009 stock market? You buy the dip, make money, rinse and repeat. It's literally worked every single time for the last 16 years. Some never learn
buying the dip has worked for a while, yes. But the difference is that now stocks are down as a direct result of the president's decisions, and the president and treasury secretary is saying there is more pain to come.
Usually the president has much less power and doesn't tell the world 'yeah this is going to hurt for a while sorry not sorry.' This is different.
The question is if we are in a new world, when the government cannot be considered a help to the market but rather a problem to the market.
At a minimum, I think markets will say 'you know what...with Trump in charge and making erratic unpredictable decisions....I'll only pay 20x earnings for the SP500, not 25x earnings.'
I think that's what's happening here. A rerating of the market to a lower multiple because of the crazy stuff going on.
The good news is that the real economy seems....ok, if slowing a bit. Which should support stocks at some point.
Last point here is most important. Short term volatility is going to hurt but the markets will start pricing this in and stabilize.
Unemployment remains pretty low for now, so as long as inflation doesn't take off like a rocket then it can't get too bad.
buying the dip has worked for a while, yes. But the difference is that now stocks are down as a direct result of the president's decisions, and the president and treasury secretary is saying there is more pain to come.
Usually the president has much less power and doesn't tell the world 'yeah this is going to hurt for a while sorry not sorry.' This is different.
The question is if we are in a new world, when the government cannot be considered a help to the market but rather a problem to the market.
At a minimum, I think markets will say 'you know what...with Trump in charge and making erratic unpredictable decisions....I'll only pay 20x earnings for the SP500, not 25x earnings.'
I think that's what's happening here. A rerating of the market to a lower multiple because of the crazy stuff going on.
The good news is that the real economy seems....ok, if slowing a bit. Which should support stocks at some point.
Last point here is most important. Short term volatility is going to hurt but the markets will start pricing this in and stabilize.
Unemployment remains pretty low for now, so as long as inflation doesn't take off like a rocket then it can't get too bad.
it's just a question of what multiple investors put on stocks now with a mad king in the oval office instead of a dependable institutionalist like Biden.
Is it 24? 23?22? 19? 15? And will European investment committees feel ethically compelled to dump American holdings?
Makes a big difference to stock returns. Economy is just a piece of it.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue · 18h $VIX has only been higher 11% of the time, going back to 1990. Put another way, there is an 89% chance that today was the bottom.
Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue · 18h $VIX has only been higher 11% of the time, going back to 1990. Put another way, there is an 89% chance that today was the bottom.
Are we near the end of this correction, or are we just beginning?
Siting historical norms is all fine and good, but the level of changes being rolled out now, and I mean drastic changes that have just started, are far from the norm, are they not?
Any of the dire consequences of these new policies start emerging, and I believe we will blast through historical norms.
Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue · 18h $VIX has only been higher 11% of the time, going back to 1990. Put another way, there is an 89% chance that today was the bottom.
Are we near the end of this correction, or are we just beginning?
Siting historical norms is all fine and good, but the level of changes being rolled out now, and I mean drastic changes that have just started, are far from the norm, are they not?
Any of the dire consequences of these new policies start emerging, and I believe we will blast through historical norms.
It's impossible to know for sure, but my best guess is that things get worse from here. A huge part of Trump's presidency seems to be about reducing spending in a fast and substantial way. That has consequences. Even if it's needed in a long term plan for the health of the country, it's going to throw things into chaos in the short term, not to mention the tariffs etc. It's possible Trump will reverse or halt things, but at this rate, I would fully expect the market to have problems for awhile. The tough part is that even if you're sure things aren't great, it's impossible to say if the market will drop more or just stay where it's at right now for 6 months with little change. Both could have the same net result, but it makes it hard to figure out when to buy.
interesting that as far as I can tell...neither canada nor europe is putting tariffs on anything tech related. that sector might be untouchable for a number of reasons.
probably that is another reason to focus on tech right now.
also, mag 7 valuations are now the lowest in a long time.
Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue · 18h $VIX has only been higher 11% of the time, going back to 1990. Put another way, there is an 89% chance that today was the bottom.
today will be interesting...stocks opened up 1% but are now down 25 bps.
my theory is that all morning Europeans are selling US shares. then at 5:00 PM Berlin time, the Euros go home to their quality food and wine, their sell orders stop coming, and the market rebounds. Yank buy orders bid the market back up.
We'll see.
This post was edited 40 seconds after it was posted.
For clarity.. when the market goes higher it is on fundamentals, discipline, and investor acumen. When the market goes lower it can only be attributed to panic
Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue · 18h $VIX has only been higher 11% of the time, going back to 1990. Put another way, there is an 89% chance that today was the bottom.
today will be interesting...stocks opened up 1% but are now down 25 bps.
my theory is that all morning Europeans are selling US shares. then at 5:00 PM Berlin time, the Euros go home to their quality food and wine, their sell orders stop coming, and the market rebounds. Yank buy orders bid the market back up.
We'll see.
This happened, exactly. Market opened up big.
Europeans sold until exactly 11:00 AM, which is 4:00 PM their time, and then the selling stopped. Because they went home for the night.
We had a nice rally from there and a meandering path to an up day.
Probably means a lot of this downturn is people selling stocks for their own reasons...not having to do with economics or inside knowledge of business performance.
All it took was a small bounce. Retail flooding back in, and going right for the usual suspects NVDA, TSLA, NFLX (charts GS S&T) pic.twitter.com/deP1HlEqu5
Jamie Dimon: “You’ve got to look at Elon, at SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink – the guy is our Einstein. I'd like to be helpful to him and his companies as much as we can. I think it is completely rational for someone to look at our government and say it's been ineffective. The government needs to be more accountable. It needs to be more efficient. It should be outcomes-based. I wish them the best.” Source: CNBC, January 2025
Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt.Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.
