Down goes the Dow

The racket has been in full force ever since Bernanke’s Maiden Lane. The con games just get bigger with each attempt to grift. Unfortunately we are lead by a host of fools from both parties and corporate lobby self-interest. Only a financial crisis of epic proportions will force the public to look inward at their loss of purpose and sense of self.

Meanwhile Cliff Asness describes crypto and where we are headed:

Weird and wacky stuff happening in the GDP data - my understanding is that it's a mirage caused by massive pre-tariff raw goods buying. But good lord what a move. That'll make some giant headlines if it pans out to an actual GDP release. Negative 2.8%!!! Was almost +4% in early February!

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28

and at the same time the Fed's inflation nowcast is showing rapidly falling inflation.

Could be a good time to sell all my money market and buy some longer term bonds. Sounds like interest rates might be a-falling. But that GDP number could be a total mirage and there could be no real slowing going on.

SMST bought earlier in the day up 27-36%.

Now SMST bought this morning up 32-42%

Good job Igy!

Igy - I am getting rid of my Acura 2003 TL. Hate to.

Started to sell some again when today’s lots breached +45% at the high. Still think Saylor is nuts, but much makes no sense to me. Could lose the 45% by the end of the day.

Why?

Crypto currency reserve?

Extreme Fear on the meter.

Vix is 23...which seems low to call a bottom but lately it hasn't gotten much higher. Not sure about the VIX anymore. All these ETFS are easier to short than by using options so maybe the VIX isn't what it used to be.

cnn.com

Fear and Greed Index - Investor Sentiment | CNN

CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is a way to gauge stock market movements and whether stocks are fairly priced. The index uses seven market indicators to help answer the question: What emotion is driving the market now?

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I see you've been touting European stocks. Perhaps this might be a bellwether?

barchart.com

SAABY Snapshot Chart for Saab Ab Stock - Barchart.com

@barchart

Technical stocks chart with latest price quote for Saab Ab, with technical analysis, latest news, and opinions.

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en.wikipedia.org

Saab AB

Saab AB (originally , lit. 'The Swedish Aeroplane Corporation', acronym SAAB), with subsidiaries collectively known as the Saab Group (Swedish: Saabgruppen), is a Swedish aerospace and defence company primarily operating from...

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Yes, GM destroyed the Saab Auto* brand, but the aerospace-defense division is still operating, and the market action says punters believe the shift in the geo-political winds will be beneficial for their bottom line.

*We spent our honeymoon in the fall of 81 in Copenhagen and Sweden. We stayed with my wife's cousin (1st cousin, once removed ) outside of Trollhattan when we were in Sweden. The husband worked for Saab and we drove one of their Saabs. In 1991 we purchased a Saab 900 because it was one of the 1st cars with an ABS. If not my life, at least a serious injury was avoided 4 years later because of black ice. Later bought a 95 CS9000 and put 280,000 miles on it. When GM came out with 9-3 (900) and 9-5 (9000) they destroyed the brand. Quality deteriorated and they eliminated the hatch back which was a major selling feature of the brand for car buyers.

What are posters thoughts on SGMO stock? It's a biotech stock. Earnings coming up within 2 weeks. They are in a very poor cash position but have been promising a deal to treat Fabry disease that could pay $200 million up front. Then again, they've been promising this deal for Q1 of 2025 and the quarter only has a few weeks left. Stock currently $0.92 per share. Beaten down today. Entire biotech sector is beaten down.

And the hits, as they say, just keep on comin'.
https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-china-rates-inflation-72339ddf1ecb65d7815f4bb5272197d7

On the bright side, this contraction might continue the inflation-taming of the last couple years. Still looks like a technical-definition recession is in the offing, but we won't see that for months.

Man, one way or another a lot of people are gonna get drilled, right up into the middle class IMO. Could be an unpleasant couple of years, especially for people who are already feeling it.

Closed my long position in EU defense stocks today with a 24% gain. Better than my tesla short! Ticker EUAD.

Thesis was that trump would cut off NATO and Ukraine and Europe would have to take up the slack themselves, and that's just what's happened.

tough call...tariffs will bring inflation but economic slowness will take it away.

no one knows what that will net out to.