Today might be a key day… good news from the all-important us tech sector…will that bring some of that fast money back to the sp500 after it has fled for Europe the last weeek or two.
ok we learned that the market is going to be very harsh.
I'm taking my exposure down to 40% stocks tomorrow.
Clearly whatever trump is selling, the market isn't buying.
It's the same sort of thing as last time - high volatility, a bunch of BS, tariffs, then at the 11th hour suddenly no tariffs, and then "look at me, I'm the best ever."
It's literally all smoke and mirrors. Except the part where they laid off (or will lay off) like potentially 100s of thousands of people lol
Today might be a key day… good news from the all-important us tech sector…will that bring some of that fast money back to the sp500 after it has fled for Europe the last weeek or two.
ok we learned that the market is going to be very harsh.
I'm taking my exposure down to 40% stocks tomorrow.
Clearly whatever trump is selling, the market isn't buying.
Investors who get in and out of the market routinely never do as well as those who Buy and hold.
ok we learned that the market is going to be very harsh.
I'm taking my exposure down to 40% stocks tomorrow.
Clearly whatever trump is selling, the market isn't buying.
It's the same sort of thing as last time - high volatility, a bunch of BS, tariffs, then at the 11th hour suddenly no tariffs, and then "look at me, I'm the best ever."
It's literally all smoke and mirrors. Except the part where they laid off (or will lay off) like potentially 100s of thousands of people lol
Honest question - is this a good way to manage?
If not, would a lack of confidence in the direction and capability of those entrusted to manage economic and other matters on the national behalf impact equity markets domestically and even globally?
And is this the same as last time? It doesn't feel like it and seems orders of magnitude different. I am hearing the same assessement daily from the press (the real one).
Finally saw A Complete Unknown yesterday. I’m biased, being Dylan’s biggest fan, but I loved the film. First, Timothee Chalamet gives a brilliant performance. The movie covers only the first few years of Dylan’s career, from 61 to 65, culminating in the first of many dramatic changes in style, when he shocks his hard core folk fans and goes electric at Newport. Some of his best work comes from those four early years, but to my mind he has had several later periods of similar or greater creativity and output, including in the last decade. Great performances of many, many great early Dylan songs. Both thumbs up!
Investors who get in and out of the market routinely never do as well as those who Buy and hold.
You know this Agip - why do you do it time and time again?
big question.
many ways to answer:
1/ I'm at a stage in life where I need to protect my capital, not grow it. I'm nearing the end of my work life, I have enough money already, so I need to keep what I have more than grow it. So being conservative at times is part of my long term strategy. I'm not trying to get the full return of the stock market. I want a return 2-4% better than inflation.
2/ I chickened out and sold just 2%, not 10% of my stock holdings. Which cost me money, but just a little.
3/My benchmark is a Vanguard 60/40 fund, ticker VSMGX, not the SP500. I'm beating my benchmark by 1.7% percentage points per year over the last three years. That means my performance is good.
4/ While I am now down to 50% stocks by a pure definition, I do have around 8% of my portfolio in short term junk bonds, which are almost stocks. If we counted them as 2/3s stocks....I'm at around 55% stocks.
The best answer is that I am in capital preservation mode more than capital growth mode.
It's the same sort of thing as last time - high volatility, a bunch of BS, tariffs, then at the 11th hour suddenly no tariffs, and then "look at me, I'm the best ever."
It's literally all smoke and mirrors. Except the part where they laid off (or will lay off) like potentially 100s of thousands of people lol
Honest question - is this a good way to manage?
If not, would a lack of confidence in the direction and capability of those entrusted to manage economic and other matters on the national behalf impact equity markets domestically and even globally?
And is this the same as last time? It doesn't feel like it and seems orders of magnitude different. I am hearing the same assessement daily from the press (the real one).
I think we're getting the tariffs this time. The world is deciding it needs to confront America head on to slow its offensive, as much as is practical anyway. The world will band together against the US that will give it strength to not give in.
But sure, Trump could give in, lie and declare victory, and not do the tariffs. Always a solid chance of that.
A sharply falling stock market could convince trump to stop the tariffs. In the past he has listened to the stock market.
This post was edited 13 minutes after it was posted.
If not, would a lack of confidence in the direction and capability of those entrusted to manage economic and other matters on the national behalf impact equity markets domestically and even globally?
And is this the same as last time? It doesn't feel like it and seems orders of magnitude different. I am hearing the same assessement daily from the press (the real one).
I think we're getting the tariffs this time. The world is deciding it needs to confront America head on to slow its offensive, as much as is practical anyway. The world will band together against the US that will give it strength to not give in.
But sure, Trump could give in, lie and declare victory, and not do the tariffs. Always a solid chance of that.
A sharply falling stock market could convince trump to stop the tariffs. In the past he has listened to the stock market.
the other reason I think we'll get the tariffs is simple, but Trump can't say it out loud: We need the money from the tariffs.
The R plan is to cut income taxes again and replace that lost revenue with money from tariffs. And then get political cover by telling the rubes the lie that foreign nations paid the tariffs, not Americans.
So the raw need for dollars means the tariffs will probably happen. They are a key part of the R plan.
This post was edited 27 seconds after it was posted.
The respondents thought it was 60/40 whether stocks or bonds would outperform.
Stocks won big.
Actual results:
SP500: +54%
2 Year +9.6%
Charlie Bilello @charliebilello What will have a higher total return over the next 2 years? S&P 500 59.1% 2-yr Treasury: 4.9% yield 40.9% 6,238 votes · Final results 10:58 AM · Mar 2, 2023 · 60.4K Views
The respondents thought it was 60/40 whether stocks or bonds would outperform.
Stocks won big.
Actual results:
SP500: +54%
2 Year +9.6%
Charlie Bilello @charliebilello What will have a higher total return over the next 2 years? S&P 500 59.1% 2-yr Treasury: 4.9% yield 40.9% 6,238 votes · Final results 10:58 AM · Mar 2, 2023 · 60.4K Views
I'll take probability matching for $1000 Ken. I posted this, maybe just the video, a while back.
A direct wealth transfer from taxpayers to crypto industry donors, VCs, and shitcoiners like the president. It's not a "critical industry" -- it's remarkably economically unproductive. https://t.co/y3hSriO1Gz
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