Down goes the Dow

Good points, and thanks.

Inversions were supposed to be foretellers of recession...but this time was different. This was one of the hardest and fastest rules of macro but it's gone now. Or at least it gets a post-pandemic era asterisk.

Charlie Bilello
@charliebilello
The US Yield Curve (10-year minus 3-month) has now been inverted for 472 consecutive days, the longest inversion in history.

11:35 PM · Feb 8, 2024
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oof. In mid 2024 this guy predicted a 23% swoon by 1/1/25.

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Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA
@GRDecter
🚨BREAKING: JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Warns S&P 500 Will Plummet 23% by Year-End
“There is a clear disconnect in the huge run-up in US equity valuations and the business cycle”
Maybe so...
BUT Kolanovic has been wrong before:
- Staying bullish in 2022 as the S&P 500 tumbled 19%
- Sticking with a bearish view in 2023 as the benchmark soared 24%
The stock market is not the economy.
Never forget.

12:48 PM · Jun 28, 2024
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It wouldn't surprise me they don't understand treasury bond and note reopenings and accrued interest.

Yeah, I remember getting tested on yield curve inversion in B school. And though there was a previous inversion that did not foretell a recession (in the mid-1960s--but there was "stuff" going on in the U.S. then), the inversion/recession link was really considered a given. I do think we're due for a recession, maybe at the end of the year, but I don't think this year-long inversion is particularly predicting it--if/when it comes, I think it will be the result of actions by the Trump admin.

Anyway, we see once again that the "rules" of macroeconomics, as with the Phillips curve, yield (sorry) to the reality that economies are complex and hard to capture in a few broad strokes.

TSLA down 27% in a couple weeks. And this kind of news continues, and likely won't stop:

Tesla registered only 1,277 new vehicles Germany in January, a 59% year-over-year drop, after Musk began campaigning for extremist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) for the general election in February.

I'm still short TSLA but small. might go up to a larger position tomorrow. Seems like a perfect setup for a short.

...

Great call from goldman. Oil has never been as high as when the tweet came out. Have to say, GS seems to be the best big wire house at predicting things.

GOLDMAN: "We believe that most of the rally is behind us, and that Brent is unlikely to sustainably exceed $105/bbl next year. .. OPEC is unlikely to push prices to extreme levels, which would destroy its long-term residual demand." #OOTT
8:35 AM · Sep 20, 2023
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i was about to do the same yesterday but just before i submitted the order I remembered that it would trigger a wash sale in my case, so I didn't.

Would have been sweet, seeing how much it dropped today.

Coincidentally, a couple of Teslas have gotten vandalized in my neighborhood last week. That's weird, and wrong-headed.

Crazy times, and not in a good way.

Bought Intel stock Thursday and sold today for about 9% gain. Was only 1% of my portfolio, but I still feel good about it given it was such a fast turnaround. I have only very rarely done anything with individual stocks, but I feel like there are going to be a lot of opportunities there over the next 1-2 years as the stock market at large is hugely overvalued. At this time, it doesn't make sense to me to keep DCA into a broad market index fund. The market is too overvalued.

I used to gamble more in individual stocks and leveraging. I thought I could hit it big fast. I did really well for a while, but I have taken on big losses too. From that, I am very close to even had I just been in s&p the entire time. I just now do 90%S&P500 and 10% into bonds. I won’t be able to retire early, but when it’s time for me to retire, it will be a nice stack.

Im 41 and I will start maxing out mega backdoor with $70K total in my 401K yearly, where $$23K pretax and the rest converted to Roth.

I’ll start selling my after tax investments when I need money since I’ll need some cashflow. I just want to move my money to 401K in Roth so I wouldn’t have to pay taxes on the gain. I get RSUs couple of times a year so I’ll use that as well to pay for everyday expenses as I can move more funds to my 401K.

I just have to find more enjoyment in working for the next 20 years as that’s the reality I have come to grips with.

more fuel for the tesla short. Talk of tariffs specifically on Teslas.

Freeland: Our retaliation is going to be a lot more surgical than that. We are going to go after American stakeholders who matter to The White House. I have proposed a 100% tariff on all Teslas. I am calling on all the countries that are affected by this tariff to join us and our retaliation will target specific Trump constituencies.

I don’t think Freeland will get to decide, as she has little chance of replacing Trudeau, according to pundits and polls.

well that didn't work.

unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
BREAKING: The Sahm rule that is designed to signal the start of a recession has officially been triggered.
It reached 0.5%, as in, the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate is now 0.5% above the low in the last 12 months.
12:55 PM · Aug 2, 2024
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Inflation up, I wonder why. S&P under 5k at end of the year.

From Ivan the K

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barchart.com

3-Month SOFR Sep '25 Futures Snapshot Chart - Barchart.com

@barchart

Technical futures chart with latest price quote for 3-Month SOFR, with technical analysis, latest news, and opinions.

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It's worse than I thought, we are so f~(l<ed!

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finance.yahoo.com

Stock market today: Dow leads stocks lower as hot inflation data pushes back rate cut hopes

Stocks wobbled on Wednesday as hotter inflation pushed back interest rate cut hopes.

Open link

I can't object to January's inflation being "credited" to Biden, but I think a fair piece of it was raising prices in anticipation of President Trump's administration's handling of tariffs, etc.

I do realize that the official story will be that excess inflation in the next 47 months will be Biden's fault. (And I'm not going to be surprised by more Dow drops, the rest of this week.)

The preliminary U of Mich Survey of Consumers was released last week (final on Feb 21).

The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United
States climbed to 4.3% in February 2025, the steepest since November
2023, accelerating from January's 3.3%, according to the preliminary
estimate from the University of Michigan Consumer Survey. In the
meantime, the five-year outlook rose to 3.3% in February, the highest
since May 2008, up from 3.2% in the previous month. source: University of Michigan

The downward trend bottomed in Nov, wonder what happened in Nov to reverse the trend? If you look at spikes in inflation expectations in the past, they usually occur with large increases of gas prices. Not this time.

I don't think this poster thought 'what happens next' is NVDA climbing another 81% from this tweet but that's what happened."Laws" indeed.

The Great Martis
@great_martis
$CSCO 2000 vs $NVDA 2024
The laws of parabola in play .
We all know what happens next .

5:00 PM · Feb 9, 2024
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