Re "Trump is working to lower corporate taxes": He's literally talking about imposing import tariffs. I get that his only goal is to have people think he's great, and he knows that when he says "tariffs are actually a tax charged to other countries now" that people generally believe him, but don't tell me the guy's trying to lower corporate taxes when he's literally raising them this month.
We’ve been listening to a wide variety of pundits weigh in on the proposed tariffs. As best i can figure, the long and the short of it is that tariffs work out to be a consumption tax on individual Americans. The tariffs are paid by US businesses importing the foreign goods and services, and those extra costs will naturally be passed along the supply chain to their customers, which may include other businesses but will surely end at individual consumers.
The other important side of this is that trading partners are almost certain to impose countervailing tariffs, which will raise costs on US exports, reducing demand. Both effects likely harm the US economy and also damage wealth and buying power for the typical American.
Although perhaps not for the filthy rich. You heard it here folks… we will see lower taxes for the wealthiest class…
Clearly much of that is true, but the juicing the economy with MMT by the previous Administration created an inflation tax that will likely remain in some form forever. That inflation tax hurt everyone but the investor class, which includes most of the DGTD posters.
Even into April many thought a recession was likely. Instead we're at near 3% real growth.
Post See new posts Conversation Bravos Research @bravosresearch Probability of a 2024 recession is still over 50% While we believe that short-term market structure is bullish Once the labor market and economy weakens, it’s game over
my early take on the trump admin, investment wise....
sounds like trump is 100% sold on tech, to a surprising amount.
I thought financials would be the big benefactor of his attention...and sure they'll get some deregulation...but so far it looks like tech will have the biggest tailwind from DC.
Which means double down on the mag 7 I suppose.
We'll have to see about tariffs...so far they've been on the back burner, which the market likes.
This post was edited 28 seconds after it was posted.
my early take on the trump admin, investment wise....
sounds like trump is 100% sold on tech, to a surprising amount.
I thought financials would be the big benefactor of his attention...and sure they'll get some deregulation...but so far it looks like tech will have the biggest tailwind from DC.
Which means double down on the mag 7 I suppose.
We'll have to see about tariffs...so far they've been on the back burner, which the market likes.
Brings to mind all the cozying up big tech has been doing w/Trump lately.
Read that likely winners and losers stemming from the change of leadership in WH, and gyst is good for tech and industrials, airlines, crypto and probably banks. Losers might be construction, automakers, retailers.
I don't think anyone expected Trumps big buy-in to AI infrastructure, though, or at least not as big as he announced. That, on top of it being beaten down a bit in recent months, has all the makings of a sizable rebound rally.
Apple and MSFT are each down over the last 6 months
but the SP500 is up around 10% over that time.
index investing is amazing. Other stonks took up the slack.
Index funds beat actively managed funds 80- 85% of the time. I used to comb through all the mutual fund magazines relentlessly but for the last 20 to 25 years I only get index funds, Mag 7 and other stocks which i think have a lot of upside.
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla UBS: “We are increasing our 2024 S&P 500 target from 4850 to 5150. While earnings should drive 2023 returns, lower rates should support incrementally higher multiples.” [Golub] $SPX
Not yet, GMO. You finally found something to be bullish on... and it started out by underperforming a lot.
2024 small cap japan +5%
Hidden Value Gems @HiddenValueGems GMO makes a strong case for the Japanese small caps, forecasting 12% annual returns over the next decade, the strongest performing asset class.
Clearly much of that is true, but the juicing the economy with MMT by the previous Administration created an inflation tax that will likely remain in some form forever. That inflation tax hurt everyone but the investor class, which includes most of the DGTD posters.
I see like most Trump supporters you seem to parroting arguments from well over a decade ago that weren't even true then.
I love that nothing has changed here on this board lol
my early take on the trump admin, investment wise....
sounds like trump is 100% sold on tech, to a surprising amount.
I thought financials would be the big benefactor of his attention...and sure they'll get some deregulation...but so far it looks like tech will have the biggest tailwind from DC.
Which means double down on the mag 7 I suppose.
We'll have to see about tariffs...so far they've been on the back burner, which the market likes.
Brings to mind all the cozying up big tech has been doing w/Trump lately.
Read that likely winners and losers stemming from the change of leadership in WH, and gyst is good for tech and industrials, airlines, crypto and probably banks. Losers might be construction, automakers, retailers.
I don't think anyone expected Trumps big buy-in to AI infrastructure, though, or at least not as big as he announced. That, on top of it being beaten down a bit in recent months, has all the makings of a sizable rebound rally.
Makes no sense though because big tech was juiced to the gills between 2016-2020 and didn't pull this level of BS.
I think they just see the writing on the wall this time. In 2016 there was a major Trump hangover almost immediately but this time it looks more like a legitimate cultural shift. We can really only be certain that ultimately it's for the money, whatever they're doing
Clearly much of that is true, but the juicing the economy with MMT by the previous Administration created an inflation tax that will likely remain in some form forever. That inflation tax hurt everyone but the investor class, which includes most of the DGTD posters.
I see like most Trump supporters you seem to parroting arguments from well over a decade ago that weren't even true then.
I love that nothing has changed here on this board lol
And like those that believe there are no consequences for foolish policy, you parrot the same CNBC arguments of the past decade because that is you, Dr Prof Racket, Phd.
This post was edited 13 minutes after it was posted.
Brings to mind all the cozying up big tech has been doing w/Trump lately.
Read that likely winners and losers stemming from the change of leadership in WH, and gyst is good for tech and industrials, airlines, crypto and probably banks. Losers might be construction, automakers, retailers.
I don't think anyone expected Trumps big buy-in to AI infrastructure, though, or at least not as big as he announced. That, on top of it being beaten down a bit in recent months, has all the makings of a sizable rebound rally.
Makes no sense though because big tech was juiced to the gills between 2016-2020 and didn't pull this level of BS.
I think they just see the writing on the wall this time. In 2016 there was a major Trump hangover almost immediately but this time it looks more like a legitimate cultural shift. We can really only be certain that ultimately it's for the money, whatever they're doing
It was always about the money, the tech titans were surprised by the Robespierre lunacy that took control of the period.
Brings to mind all the cozying up big tech has been doing w/Trump lately.
Read that likely winners and losers stemming from the change of leadership in WH, and gyst is good for tech and industrials, airlines, crypto and probably banks. Losers might be construction, automakers, retailers.
I don't think anyone expected Trumps big buy-in to AI infrastructure, though, or at least not as big as he announced. That, on top of it being beaten down a bit in recent months, has all the makings of a sizable rebound rally.
Makes no sense though because big tech was juiced to the gills between 2016-2020 and didn't pull this level of BS.
I think they just see the writing on the wall this time. In 2016 there was a major Trump hangover almost immediately but this time it looks more like a legitimate cultural shift. We can really only be certain that ultimately it's for the money, whatever they're doing
I was refering specifically to the way the tech stocks took off upon Trump announcing the up to $500 billion Stargate initiative. I don't know, but to me a pronouncement like that so early in the term indicates a major focus going forward and probably to a level in excess of what has been going on.
Additionally, Trump seems to be framing this AI push in the context of US staying competitive in global trade and being the leader in this sector, surpassing that of China. This really looks like part of his larger plan and coming from a guy who tends to over-do things.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
China portion added
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